For oil, any credible progress toward ending the war would raise the prospect of eventual sanctions relief on Russian energy, weighing on the risk premium in crude. Traders are likely to wait for concrete outcomes before pricing that in, given how early the process is. European assets are more directly exposed. Signs of progress would tend to support the euro and European equities, and ease pressure on regional gas prices. The Brussels track on security guarantees and Europe’s future security framework points to continued defense commitments, which would limit any downside for European defense stocks even if a ceasefire comes into view. Reconstruction funding talks are an early, longer-term signal for European construction, infrastructure and materials names.
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Earlier:
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Washington is running two diplomatic tracks on Ukraine at once, bringing Kyiv and Moscow back to the table in Abu Dhabi while working through security guarantees with European partners in Brussels.
Summary:
- The US will host a second high-level trilateral meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, a US official said
- The talks will cover post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian measures and ending the war
- US negotiators will also hold working-level talks in Brussels this week with France, Germany, the UK, the EU and NATO
- The Brussels talks will focus on security guarantees for Ukraine, Europe’s future security framework and economic support for reconstruction
The United States will host a second round of high-level trilateral talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, a US official said. The talks are part of a broader diplomatic push to bring the war to an end.
According to the official, the agenda will cover post-war security arrangements, steps toward de-escalation, humanitarian measures and the terms for ending the conflict. The meeting will bring the two warring sides back to the same table under US mediation for the second time.
Alongside the Abu Dhabi talks, US negotiators will meet this week in Brussels at the working level with representatives from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Union and NATO. Those discussions are set to focus on security guarantees for Ukraine, the shape of Europe’s future security framework and economic support for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The two tracks suggest Washington is trying to advance negotiations with Moscow and Kyiv while lining up European backing for what a post-war settlement would require. Security guarantees are likely to be among the most difficult issues, because they determine how Ukraine would be protected from future attack and what role European countries and NATO would play in that.
The inclusion of reconstruction on the Brussels agenda also signals that discussions are extending to the economic recovery that would follow any settlement, a process that would require substantial funding.
The official did not give details on what outcomes are expected from either meeting, and no breakthrough has been signalled. Attention will turn to whether the Abu Dhabi round produces concrete steps on de-escalation or humanitarian issues. Any such steps could mark progress toward a framework for ending the war, while a lack of movement would leave the conflict and its effects on energy and European markets unresolved.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.