I highlighted KY-06 as an early district to watch as a barometer of today’s vote and now some real results are crossing and betting markets are moving.
In Anderson County, the numbers show the Republican Alvarado leading by 19 percentage points. That’s good, right? No, it’s not because in the prior three House elections, the Republican won that county +48, +54 and +54. So that’s around a 35-points swing towards the Democrat candidate with 49% of votes counted.
In Montgomery County on the opposite side of the district, 43% of votes are counted and the patter is similar. It shows Alvarado up 16 points but that compares to +53 in the prior election, +54 in 2022 and +43 in 2020.
In Jessamine County, with 27% of the vote, Dumbo leads +0.9% and that compares to R+46.3% in 2024, a huge swing. That’s a smaller percentage of the vote but the raw number is triple the size of the other two counties that have reported.
That looks like a Democratic landslide and prediction markets appear to endorse it.
There has also been a notable move towards Democrats winning the Senate at 86% compared to 73% earlier today.
For Kentucky, there is an important caveat here. Nearly all Kentucky counties are expected to report early and absentee votes in their first update, according to the Associated Press. Those numbers are likely from early and mail-in voters, which skew Democrat.
Update: Likely the most-significant data point yet is in. 95% of votes are in for Powell County in KY-06 and that’s a 28.7 pt swing to Dems vs 2024 and 27 pts vs 2022. With the high % counted, it can’t be a mail-in skew.
Update 2: Now we have 89-92% of votes counted in Montgomery, Anderson and Bourbon Counties. As the later votse come in, we’ve seen a 3-5 point swing towards the Republicans but that’s still a massive underperformance compared to 2024. In those counties, the movement is Dem +32.4, +32.3 and +37.4 points.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.