investingLive Americas FX news wrap: Another day, another ‘deal soon’. This time for sure?

• US-Iran Schrödinger’s cat deal: signed and unsigned at once. Where are we at?
• Markets surge as Trump announces deal with Iran
• Breaking: Trump cancels scheduled attacks on Iran today, says there is an agreement
• US sells 30-year bonds at 5.020% vs 5.008% WI
• US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage averages 6.52% up from 6.48% last week
• ECB sources report: Policymakers see July pause if energy prices stay where they are
• World Bank cuts 2026 global GDP growth to 2.5% from 2.6%
• ECB’s Lagarde: Risks to the growth outlook are to the downside
• Trump says Iran will be hit hard and “at some point” the US will take Kharg Island
• Canada building permits for April -7.6% versus -3.5% estimate
• US Initial jobless claims 229K vs 219K estimate. Continuing Claims 1.795M vs 1.780M est.
• US May PPI +6.5% y/y vs +6.4% expected
• ECB hikes rates, as expected

Risk sentiment surged on Thursday after Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran, citing a near-complete deal with Tehran and a possible signing in Europe this weekend. Equities rallied hard, led by cyclicals and tech, while energy was the lone sector in the red. Oracle bucked the broader rally, sliding over 8% on its USD 40bln equity raise following weak capex guidance.

Crude bore the brunt of the de-escalation, reversing earlier gains to settle sharply lower, which in turn fuelled a broad Treasury rally. Yields fell 8-10bps across the curve, led by the belly, as traders unwound inflation premiums tied to the conflict. Markets now price just 18.5bps of hikes by year-end, a 74% chance.

The USD softened broadly on the improved risk tone, with AUD and NZD outperforming on the constructive backdrop, while CAD lagged on crude’s slide.

US PPI added a wrinkle: headline rose 1.1% m/m (exp. +0.7%, prior +1.4%) and 6.5% y/y (exp. +6.4%), but core cooled to 4.9% y/y (exp. +5.3%, prior +5.2%). Supercore reaccelerated to 5.1% y/y, a reminder underlying pressures haven’t fully faded. Jobless claims ticked up to 229k (exp. 219k, prior 225k).

A weak 30-year auction, tailing 1.2bps with soft indirect demand, underscored lingering caution on duration even with yields near 5%. Iran’s Supreme Leader sign-off remains the key swing factor heading into the weekend.

Another deal, this time for sure?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.