The revelations land at a sensitive moment for the prediction market industry, which has positioned itself as a credible real-money signal on political and financial outcomes and attracted significant mainstream attention during the 2024 and 2025 US election cycles. Evidence that Polymarket systematically manufactured the appearance of big wins to recruit users undermines the integrity argument the sector relies on, and raises questions about whether other platforms have used similar tactics. Regulatory exposure is acute: Polymarket was already banned from offering its primary crypto product to US customers in 2022, yet the campaign was explicitly designed to draw in US users. That combination of deceptive marketing and apparent sanctions evasion via VPN promotion is likely to attract fresh scrutiny from US financial regulators.
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Polymarket paid college-age creators to film fake trades and wins on dummy versions of its site in a covert campaign targeting US users, a Wall Street Journal investigation found.
Summary:
- Polymarket paid dozens of mostly college-age social media creators to film simulated trades and fabricated wins using near-identical copies of its real website, without disclosing the paid relationship, according to a Wall Street Journal investigation based on more than 1,100 videos, instructional materials and creator interviews
- One creator, college student George Makihara, posted videos appearing to show him winning $100,000 on a bet that President Trump would say the word “McDonald’s” in January; public data showed every real account that placed the same bet lost, and the celebration clip used in his video was filmed two months earlier
- Polymarket recruited a secondary network of accounts to copy and repost creators’ footage to drive viral reach, with creators specifically instructed to target US users despite Polymarket being banned from offering its primary crypto platform in the United States since 2022
- Creators did not initially disclose they were paid Polymarket partners and only began adding that label to their social media profiles after the Journal approached the company with questions
- Polymarket said in a statement it was committed to accurate, fair and transparent markets and announced plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of active promotional content
Prediction market platform Polymarket secretly paid dozens of mostly college-age social media creators to film themselves making fake trades and winning fabricated sums on dummy versions of its website, then deployed a coordinated reposting network to push the content toward US users it has been legally barred from serving since 2022, a Wall Street Journal investigation has found.
The investigation, based on an analysis of more than 1,100 videos along with instructional materials and interviews with creators who worked with the company, found that Polymarket built near-perfect replicas of its site and instructed creators to simulate trades on those dummy platforms. Creators were told to conceal that they were being paid by Polymarket and that the trades were not real.
The scale of the deception is illustrated by the case of George Makihara, a college student whose videos showed him appearing to win $100,000 on a wager that President Trump would publicly say the word “McDonald’s” in January. Makihara appeared across his videos to have placed 145 bets on Polymarket between January and mid-May, with a combined value of close to $410,000. None of those bets existed. The video clip he used to celebrate the supposed win was recorded two months before the bet was said to have been placed. Public data from Polymarket’s actual site showed that more than 50 real accounts placed the same McDonald’s wager in January, and every one of them lost. Makihara declined to comment.
To amplify reach, Polymarket worked with a marketing contractor that directed a social media army to copy and repost content from a core group of ten creators, Makihara among them. The contractor’s instructions, reviewed by the Journal, specifically targeted US users. That detail is significant: Polymarket was banned from offering its primary crypto platform to US customers in 2022, though users in the country can still access the site using a virtual private network. The campaign appears designed to exploit that loophole at scale.
None of the creators initially identified themselves as paid Polymarket partners. The disclosure only appeared in their social media profiles after the Journal began asking the company questions about its marketing practices. One creator had offered a $20 bonus code in their bio, a detail that hinted at a commercial relationship without making it explicit.
Polymarket said in a statement that it was committed to maintaining accurate, fair and transparent markets, acknowledged it was part of a rapidly growing industry, and said it was constantly evaluating ways to improve how it engaged with and earned the trust of its audience. The company said it planned to conduct a comprehensive audit of active promotional content.
The revelations pose a serious challenge to the prediction market sector’s self-image as a transparent, market-driven alternative to traditional polling and forecasting. Polymarket in particular has been widely cited in mainstream financial and political media as a credible real-money signal on major events. The finding that the platform systematically manufactured the appearance of winning trades to build its user base cuts directly against that positioning.
I wonder if the US ‘justice’ system will do the right thing on this? I’d wager on not.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.