- US June non-farm payrolls +57K vs +110K expected
- US initial jobless claims 215K vs 220K estimate.
- US May factory orders -1.3% vs -1.8% expected
- US officials believed Israel might have been plotting to assassinate Iran’s negotiators
- Zuckerberg: AI agent development over last four months hasn’t accelerated as expected
- Blackstone said to abandon a large data center in Virginia
- BOE’s Mann: In June there were more upside risks to inflation
- BOE Mann: Loosening of financial conditions since June will be important for her rate vote
- Fed’s Daly: In the US, there’s exceedingly strong investment growth
Markets:
- JPY leads, USD lags
- Gold up $83 to $4113
- US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.48%
- WTI crude oil flat at $68.48
- S&P 500 down 0.3%
The non-farm payrolls report initially led to selling in the US dollar, a bid in bonds and a rally in stocks. It didn’t last as the moves were muddled as flows dominated pre-holiday trading.
The picture in the report was surprising as job creation didn’t match the two-year high in the JOLTS report from earlier this week. Most strangely, there were large job losses in hospitality jobs just ahead of the World Cup. That’s a tough dynamic to square and perhaps why the moves faded.
In any case, the numbers will diminish pressure on the Fed to shift from a largely neutral stance. The euro initially rose to a session high of 1.1472 but has slowly given back 40 pips.
The US dollar remains the laggard on the day and the yen the winner as Japanese officials shift to stealth intervention. USD/JPY touched 160.65 after the jobs report but was last at 161.14. Eyes will be on thin holiday markets on Friday as the US celebrates 250 years.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.