- RBNZ’s own inflation model, Q2 2026: 2.7% y/y, unchanged from Q1
- Israel believes Iran moved nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain
- Goldman Sachs says Brent might rise above $120/bbl if Hormuz remains disrupted
- South Korea’s Lee flags won weakness and leveraged product risks
- Axios reports that Trump nears decision between new Iran ceasefire and full scale war
- Oil holds near one month highs as renewed US Iran conflict enters 10th night
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7917 (vs. estimate at 6.7706)
- China’s national team spends nearly $9 billion to prop up stocks
- FX strategists eye ECB hawkishness as Middle East risk lifts euro case
- Carney says Canada ready to intensify trade talks after new US tariffs
- Preview – ECB seen holding at 2.25% as Middle East conflict clouds outlook, September hike still in play
- NZ inflation jumps to 4.1% in Q2, beating forecasts and RBNZ’s own estimate, with more to come!
- South Korea’s ruling party presses regulator on stricter leveraged ETF oversight
- ICYMI – Fed’s Hammack makes closing case for higher rates before blackout begins
- Preview – Deutsche Bank sees ECB pausing this week before a September rate rise
- Trump hits Canada with new tariffs on alcohol, dairy and autos
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 20 Jul:
- Oil: US launches new Iran strikes again Monday as Saudi coalition warns Houthis with force
Session summary:
- The US launched its 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, as the Saudi led coalition vowed to respond with force to a Houthi naval blockade threat, with oil firming near one month highs
- UK military and UKMTO reported a fresh attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz
- Iran’s army said it targeted US missile systems at Kuwait’s Arifjan base, while IRNA reported fresh explosions in Bandar Abbas
- Oil dipped slightly as the session’s narrative turned to Monday’s news that mediators were pushing the US and Iran toward a new ceasefire
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said two tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz and declared the strait closed, also claiming US radar and defence systems in Bahrain had been destroyed
- Iran said missile and drone strikes targeted a US Patriot air defence system in Bahrain’s Riffa
- The US State Department issued a worldwide caution alert for Americans as regional tensions increased
- US intelligence reportedly takes a pessimistic view of further strikes, with current and former officials saying they are unlikely to meaningfully soften Iran’s negotiating position
- Iranian sources said the IRGC Aerospace Force struck and destroyed a US early warning radar, a missile defence radar, an AN/FPS 117 radar, a Patriot system and a satellite communications system at Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base in Kuwait
- Axios reported Trump is nearing a decision between pursuing a 10 day ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a full scale joint campaign with Israel
- The Wall Street Journal reported Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of centrifuges into tunnels at Pickaxe Mountain, with Trump threatening to strike the site
- Goldman Sachs said Brent could rise above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and average $100 in 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted
- Trump announced additional tariffs of up to 50% on Canadian alcohol, dairy and motor vehicle products, citing discrimination against US commerce
- Canadian PM Mark Carney responded with a measured statement emphasising continued willingness to negotiate rather than immediate retaliation
- New Zealand’s Q2 inflation accelerated to a two and a half year high, reinforcing expectations of a September RBNZ rate hike
- NZD/USD rose on the CPI data before paring gains after the RBNZ’s sectoral factor model came in more subdued, taking heat out of both the kiwi and rate hike speculation
- South Korea’s Kospi is up 4.00% intraday, with SK Hynix up 4.7% and Samsung Electronics up 6.4%
- Gold rose 1% on the day
- The London Stock Exchange unveiled plans to launch a night time trading venue in the first half of 2027, the Financial Times reported
Markets are approaching what could be a decisive stretch in the US Iran conflict, according to Axios, with Trump said to be nearing a choice between a 10 day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a full scale joint campaign with Israel, as US forces continue massing in the region.
The session’s news flow tracked a volatile news session. The US launched its 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with oil firming near one month highs as the Saudi led coalition vowed to respond with force to a Houthi naval blockade threat on the kingdom. The UK military and UKMTO both reported a fresh tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s army said it had targeted US missile systems at Kuwait’s Arifjan base and Iranian state media reported renewed explosions in Bandar Abbas. Oil eased slightly as attention turned to Monday’s reports that regional mediators were pushing Washington and Tehran toward a new ceasefire, before Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said two tankers had been struck near the strait and declared it closed outright, also claiming to have destroyed US radar and defence systems in Bahrain. Iran separately said missile and drone strikes had hit a US Patriot air defence system in Bahrain’s Riffa, prompting a worldwide caution alert from the US State Department as regional tensions built further.
Adding to the uncertainty, US intelligence officials reportedly take a pessimistic view of further strikes, believing they are unlikely to meaningfully soften Iran’s negotiating stance. Iranian sources meanwhile claimed the destruction of a wider set of US radar, air defence and satellite communications assets at Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base in Kuwait. The Wall Street Journal added a fresh dimension to the standoff, reporting that Israeli intelligence believes Iran has moved thousands of centrifuges into tunnels at Pickaxe Mountain, a site Trump has now threatened to strike directly. Against that backdrop, Goldman Sachs warned Brent could climb above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter and average $100 through 2027 if the Hormuz disruption persists.
Oil markets traded in a relativwely sedate fashion.
Trade tensions also resurfaced, with Trump announcing additional tariffs of up to 50% on Canadian alcohol, dairy and motor vehicle products, citing discrimination against US commerce. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded with a measured statement, emphasising continued willingness to negotiate rather than immediate retaliation.
Elsewhere, New Zealand’s Q2 inflation accelerated to a two and a half year high, reinforcing expectations of a September RBNZ rate hike and lifting NZD/USD, though those gains were pared once the RBNZ’s own sectoral factor model came in more subdued, taking some heat out of both the currency and rate hike speculation.
South Korea’s Kospi extended its rebound, last up 4.00% intraday, led by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while gold added 1% on the day.
Separately, the Financial Times reported the London Stock Exchange plans to launch a night time trading venue in the first half of 2027, initially offering access to exchange traded products tracking UK and US equities.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.