It is one thing to have the backing of other members in the region but a whole other thing to expect Iran to accept this proposal. Here are the some of the details outlined by the source:
- Iran would not exercise sole control of Strait of Hormuz
- It will be a joint regional mechanism to manage the strait with voluntary fees
- The proposal structure is one based on the Straif of Malacca, where those who use the waterway voluntarily contribute to fund navigation, environmental protection, search and rescue
Well, just on the first point itself I think the proposal would be dead in the water. I can’t imagine Iran accepting these conditions without any give, that especially with the renewed conflict with the US again. As a reminder, the US naval blockade is back in force after the ceasefire deal fell apart.
And in case it needs reminding once again, control over the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran’s biggest leverage over the US in the whole conflict. It is literally their ace in the hole in being able to keep things going for this long and also in case nuclear talks hit a snag at some point in the future.
I can imagine Iran agreeing to a fee/toll structure of some sort and perhaps putting on another show in entertaining this proposal. But when things get down and dirty in the strait, don’t expect any of the above conditions to be respected whatsoever.
As mentioned before, Iran can claim anything they want over reopening the strait and surrendering control over. However, shiptracking data doesn’t lie and until today that still points to a de facto closure in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s already been four months and nothing has changed. So much for the war supposedly ending in four weeks, eh?
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.