FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
The S&P 500, and other major stock indices in general, has been under
some pressure in the last week, despite no changes on the fundamental side. The
extended US-Iran deadlock might be one of the reasons, but it hasn’t weakened
economic activity, and oil prices have been broadly stable. It looks more like
a pullback from overstretched levels due to lack of bullish catalysts.
Just an hour ago, we got a bullish catalyst as Pakistan’s
Chief of Army, Asim Munir, is reportedly carrying a proposal to Iranian leaders
aimed at reducing tensions between US and Iran, according to Al Arabiya. The
proposal is said to include an offer to halt the economic siege on Iran and
gradually lift sanctions under the framework of the Islamabad Memorandum of
Understanding, which Pakistan has been promoting as part of its mediation
efforts between the two sides.
The markets reacted positively to the news on expectations of potential
de-escalation and eventually a deal. It’s not the first time we get such
positive headlines, of course, but the fact that Trump spoke with Munir ahead
of his trip is strengthening market’s hope for a better outcome.
Markets will also focus on Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole
Symposium on Friday. After the Treasury buyback announcement, traders will be eager
to see whether Warsh leans against the easing in financial conditions.
If he doesn’t, the S&P 500 will likely get support from further easing
in financial conditions and the dovish repricing in near-term interest rate
expectations. On the other hand, if he pushes back saying things like
“recent easing in financial conditions, if sustained, could complicate the
process of returning inflation to our target” or “if recent easing
threatens progress toward price stability, we will not hesitate to respond
appropriately” and so on, the market may interpret it as a signal for a
potentially hawkish September FOMC and weigh on risk sentiment and the stock
market.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On
the daily chart, we can see the S&P 500 pulled all the way back to the key support zone around
the 7,650 level. The buyers stepped in around the support with a defined risk
below it to position for a rally into new record highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into
the lower bound of the channel next.
S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On
the 4 hour chart, we can see the
price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum,
potentially signalling a reversal. The buyers piled in on the break with a
defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new all-time highs.
The sellers, on the other hand, will need to wait for the price to break below
the support to open the door for new lows.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, the
most recent swing high around the 7,715 level might act as minor resistance. A
break above it should give the buyers more conviction for further upside. Overall,
it look like the market is bottoming out and the buyers will likely continue to
pile in around these levels with a de-escalation between US and Iran, and/or neutral
Warsh speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium increasing the momentum. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we get the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we have the US PCE
price index. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
conclude the week with Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.