As crude oil rises above $90 (the has reached $90.60) and the risks of high inflation as a result of a persistent and consistent war that will never end, has helped to push the 10 year yield higher. Today the yield has extended up to 4.80% for the 1st time since January 2025. That is also just short of the January 2025 high at 4.823%. Move above the 422 3% in the next stop is 5% for the 10 year yield.
Looking at the 4-hour chart above, the 10-year yield has broken above the 4.60%–4.75% consolidation range that had contained trading since July 21. The bond bears are taking control—and remember, higher yields mean lower bond prices.
The key now is the 4.75% level. A move back below that breakout level would disappoint the bond bears and raise questions about the momentum. Stay above, however, and the tracks point toward 5% as the next major stop.
Hop aboard the Bond Bear Train. It’s pulling out of consolidation station and gaining momentum.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.