Headlines:
- Gold price breaks below $4,200 as surging Treasury yields deepen the technical damage
- Gold collapses as Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz and signals new bombings
- Japanese yen jumps as top currency diplomat Mimura reiterates strong currency alliance with the US
- US jobs report could decide how much higher Treasury yields can go
- Stock earnings pick of the week: Can Micron earnings keep the AI memory boom running?
- Market outlook for the week of 28th September – 2nd October
- BoE’s Ramsden warns persistent elevated energy prices could warrant a rate hike
Markets:
- Gold down 3.1% to $4,151
- WTI crude up 3.6% to $95.77
- JPY leads, CHF lags on the day
- 10-year Treasury yields up 3.6 bps to 5.217%
- European equities steadier; S&P 500 futures -0.5%
- Bitcoin down 1.8% to $82,959
It is a brand new week but we’re seeing much of the same old themes in markets today.
As US president Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, we’re seeing oil prices climb back up again and that is also adding to pressure on the bond market since the tail end of last week.
WTI crude is up over 3% to $95.77, reigniting inflation fears and keeping major central banks on their toes as we begin the transition into the fourth quarter of the year. At the same time, the selloff in the bond market continues with 10-year Treasury yields jumping back up above 5.21% on the day, even briefly touching 5.23% earlier – its highest level since 2007.
The combination of higher oil prices and higher bond yields continues to be a major bane for risk trades, with US futures being dragged lower again. Equities continue to be hurt as higher rates are putting added pressure on valuations alongside higher borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% as tech shares lead declines, with Nasdaq futures down 0.8%.
In Europe, investors seem to be able to hold their nerves for a little bit with regional stocks keeping steadier. But with the overarching mood across broader markets, the slight gains we’re seeing are still nothing to shout about for now.
Looking to major currencies, the yen is once again in the spotlight after Japan top currency diplomat Mimura stepped in with another round of verbal intervention. That pushed USD/JPY down from 157.50 to 156.50 during the session before settling closer to the 157.00 mark currently.
In other markets, gold is coming under heavy pressure as a setback to US-Iran diplomacy hopes and higher bond yields are weighing on the precious metal alongside a major technical break to the downside. The drop below $4,200 is threatening to take out key support around $4,240 and that shifts the spotlight in gold to the key support level closer to $4,000 next potentially.
There’s going to be a lot to play for this week in markets, with the RBA decision coming up tomorrow, before we get the US PCE report and Micron earnings on Wednesday, and finally the US jobs report on Friday. That is not to mention month-end and quarter-end shenanigans as well in the coming sessions.
So, expect there to be plenty of volatility up ahead this week.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.