FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
In terms
of idiosyncratic catalysts, Alpenglow, which is Solana’s major consensus
upgrade, reached the second public test network on September 26. It aims to
reduce transaction finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150
milliseconds by replacing the existing TowerBFT architecture with the Votor
consensus mechanism. The rollout is occurring in phases and it’s one of the
largest protocol upgrades in Solana’s history.
On the
macro side, heading into the weekend, the hopes for a US-Iran deal returned after Iran
sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days on certain
conditions. That helped turning the risk sentiment around and give Solana a
boost to reach new highs.
Unfortunately, Trump rejected the proposal on
Saturday and told reporters that he expected to resume bombing Iran after the
midterms. The negative development weighed on the crypto market, with Solana erasing
Friday’s gains.
The focus will remain on the Middle East and the Fed. A breakthrough would
be positive for Solana as the aggressive rate hike bets will likely get pared
back. A prolonged stalemate or even a re-escalation, on the other hand, will
likely continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency.
We just got a report from Reuters saying that mediators are expected to
hold separate talks with the US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran’s
Araghchi and Qatari mediators remaining in the US. The talks will focus on an
amended version of the seven-day proposal Iran presented. Markets will continue
to watch carefully further developments.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the
daily chart, we can see that Solanamanaged to extend the gains on Friday on some better risk sentiment
but eventually gave back the gains as the earlier optimism faded. We have a major
trendline defining the bullish structure. If we get a pullback, we can expect
the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep
pushing into the 149.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a
break lower to extend the pullback into the 97.00 support.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4
hour chart, we have another minor trendline defining the recent price action.
The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to
keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to pile in
for a drop into the major trendline around the 107.00 level.
SOLANA TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1
hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the recent pullback. If
the price rebounds from the upward trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean
on the downward trendline, with a defined risk above it, to position for a
break below the upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow, we get the US Consumer Confidence report and the US
Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP and the US PCE price index.
On Thursday, we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.