It’s a packed data agenda for the session here. I’ll be mostly awaiting the Bank of Japan ‘Summary’.
The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions is a short document that collects the views expressed at a monetary policy meeting, published without naming who said what. It gives the market a read on the tone of the debate behind the decision, which the announcement itself doesn’t show. Traders use it to judge how close the board is to another move. It is not a formal record of the meeting.
At the September meeting the BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, on a 7-2 vote, with Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting. The hike came three months after the previous one, compared with six months between earlier moves. The rate change took effect on 24 September.
Markets will focus on several points in the Summary:
- Hike timing: Whether members see a further rise as coming soon (here is an analyst December forecast), since the next meeting is at the end of October. The BOJ calendar lists that meeting for 29 and 30 October.
- Pace of tightening: Any sign that the quicker pace was a one-off, or that members want to keep it up.
- The dissenters’ reasoning: Comments that sound like the two who preferred to hold, and how widely their caution is shared.
- Inflation and wages: How members read recent price data and wage momentum.
- Yen and global factors: References to currency moves, overseas economies and the rate gap with the US.
The full minutes of the meeting come much later. They are released only after the board has approved them, which happens at its following meeting, so expect them well into November (scheduled for release November 5). Until then, the Summary is the main window into the board’s thinking.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.