- Trump says: We will not be attacking Iran any time soon
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 tracker 3.6% vs 3.7% prior
- US August wholesale inventories +0.5% vs +0.7% expected
- US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected
- BOE’s Bailey: Mon pol needs an unwavering commitment to returning inflation to target
- Arab sources: Several severe explosions have occurred in the Strait of Hormuz
- US treasury sells $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.618%
- Fed’s Musalem says more monetary policy firming will be required
Markets:
- S&P 500 down 0.5%
- WTI crude oil up $2.82 to $91.09
- Gold up $23 to $4133
- US 10-year yields down 5 bps to 5.22%
- CAD leads, USD lags
The market mood was poor to start the day after oil prices spiked in Europe following reports and comments from Trump about attacking Iran once again. Later, Trump put out a post saying he wouldn’t attack Iran before the midterms and that led to a bounce in crude. There was the usual skepticism but it was also a reminder of how high oil prices and inflation are an all-encompassing headwind for Republicans and that Trump will want to resolve the war at some point.
Equally important was a report that OpenAI’s run rate of revenue is $50 billion, not the $70 billion the Street was modelling. That created some headwinds for chipmakers and electricity producers. Notably, it also led to some USD selling in a reminder that AI flows have been a big part of the USD outperformance this year.
Economic data was light but initial jobless claims remained near rock-bottom levels. Fed commentary continued to emphasize a desire to bring down inflation, underscoring the likelihood of a hike this year and more beyond.
A final thought, we saw a turnaround in Treasury yields today and a finish at the lows of the day. Could it be The Economist marking the top yet again?
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.