For oil, the risk premium hinges on one man’s decision rather than on military readiness. Iranian energy facilities on the target list put supply directly in scope, and a three-carrier presence by late October keeps the escalation risk alive well beyond the midterms pledge. The detail that Trump has rejected five strike proposals, and that some of his advisers favour giving economic pressure more time, argues against pricing an imminent attack. With tanker attacks running at their highest since the war began and the US response muted, shipping risk in Hormuz remains the more immediate driver for crude than the strike plans themselves.
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Earlier:
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The US military is primed to hit Iran’s missiles, oil sites and command centres in a three-day blitz, but the man who must give the order has said no five times and is now talking up diplomacy.
Summary:
- The Pentagon has prepared options for a roughly three-day campaign targeting Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, energy facilities and IRGC command posts, the NYT (gated) reported, citing officials
- Trump has vetoed five proposals for major operations against Iran or the Houthis in recent months, and on Thursday pledged no attack before the midterms
- Officials led by Vice President Vance discussed the plans at Camp David last Friday; commanders are ready to act within days if the president changes course
- Talks through mediators remain stuck on whether a nuclear deal comes first or last
- Iran has struck at least 13 ships since September, with little US response
- A third carrier group is due by late October, the first three-carrier presence in the region since 2003
The US military has drawn up options for a short, intense campaign of roughly three days against Iran, but President Donald Trump has repeatedly declined to restart full-scale war, The New York Times reported on Thursday, citing American officials and people briefed on the plans. Commanders are ready to begin larger operations within days should the president change course, according to the report.
The plans, which Trump ordered, would focus on Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, much of which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has rebuilt since the early phase of the war. Other potential targets include energy facilities and Revolutionary Guard command posts and headquarters. Senior national security officials led by Vice President JD Vance discussed the options at Camp David last Friday. Axios had reported the plans earlier.
The Times said Trump has vetoed five proposals for major operations against Iran or the Houthis in recent months. On Thursday he posted that Washington and Tehran were holding productive discussions and that he would not attack before the midterm elections. Officials had already expected him to wait until after Israel’s elections on October 27 and the US vote the following week before deciding. Talks through mediators continue but remain stuck on sequencing, with Washington seeking a nuclear deal first and Iran insisting it come last.
The US military response has been notably muted since September, even as Iran struck at least 13 ships according to a British Navy monitoring group, and close to 20 according to intelligence reports cited by the paper. Iran has become a tougher opponent, forcing the US and its partners to use more interceptors against missile salvos and drawing on Chinese satellite imagery to target US bases more effectively, the report said. Some officials in Trump’s inner circle believe economic pressure is working and needs more time.
A major buildup is under way regardless. The Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group will join the George H.W. Bush and George Washington groups as early as the end of October, the first time since 2003 that three carriers have operated in the Middle East, with more than 20,000 sailors and Marines afloat. Even so, the Times reported it is far from certain Trump will authorise new strikes after the elections.
Three day weekend is time for golf.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.