US Stocks Drop as Uncertainty Reigns in the Gulf – Dow down 0.6%
US equity markets came under pressure in the latest session, with all three major indices closing lower as investors continued to digest ongoing developments out of the Middle East. The Dow Jones fell -0.59% to 49,149, while the S&P 500 declined -0.63% to 7,064, and the Nasdaq slipped -0.59% to 24,259. Sentiment remained cautious despite President Trump extending the ceasefire while talks with Iran continue, with the ongoing US naval blockade and lack of progress on returning to formal negotiations keeping uncertainty elevated. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened, with the DXY index rising 0.30% to 98.39, supported by higher Treasury yields across the curve. The US 2-year yield climbed 5.8 basis points to 3.779%, while the 10-year yield added 4.1 basis points to 4.292%, reflecting a modest repricing of rate expectations alongside safe-haven flows into the greenback. Commodity markets saw continued volatility, particularly in energy. Brent crude rose 3.81% to $99.22, pushing closer to the key $100 level, while WTI gained 2.81% to $92.13, as supply concerns tied to the Gulf region persisted. In contrast, gold prices moved sharply lower, falling 2.08% to $4,720.04, as the stronger dollar and rising yields weighed on the precious metal despite the geopolitical backdrop.

FX Traders Poised for More Volatility
Major FX markets have been relatively well behaved over the last few sessions as traders continue to assess updates on how things are going to shape up in the Middle East in the short term. The pattern is clearly set: anything that looks like a continuation of the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut will see the USD appreciate, while signs of peace and a move back to ‘normal’ will see the USD pull back. Reactions to recent updates, however, have been more muted, with a certain amount of news fatigue creeping into the market, and now traders are expecting to see bigger moves once we have certainty surrounding key points. Last night’s updates saw some reaction, with President Trump again reneging on prior advice, but now we are waiting to see if the two sides will actually come back to the negotiating table or whether we hear the sound of war drums again. Either way, traders are expecting to see the majors break out of recent relatively tight ranges and volatility increase again.

Geopolitics to Dominate the Trading Day Again
Looking ahead, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively light today, though attention will turn to a couple of key data drops and some central bank updates, in between traders monitoring the news wires for updates on the Middle East. There is very little on the calendar in the Asian session, and markets are expected to start on the back foot after the drop on Wall Street yesterday, with any signs that negotiations in the Gulf are still delayed likely to lead to further downside moves. The London session sees the major data release of the day, with key CPI (exp +3.3% y/y and +0.6% m/m) data due out alongside the lower-impact PPI (exp +2.9% m/m) numbers. The US session is quiet on the data front, although the Weekly US Crude Oil Inventory data will attract attention, as will a scheduled speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde.

The post General Market Analysis – 22/04/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Continued political monetary‑policy noise around the confirmation of Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and incremental signs of softening U.S. consumer strength, rather than a major fresh data release driving big moves. Markets also absorbed a slightly more cautious tone on the consumer (with higher gas prices and spending fatigue noted by firms like Goldman Sachs) at the same time that some large banks reiterated bullish stances on equities underpinned by AI‑driven earnings.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should closely monitor the aftermath of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision from earlier in the week, expected to hold steady at 3.00%, alongside escalating Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz where Iran has reversed reopening plans amid US-Iran disputes and Trump’s refusal to lift blockades, driving oil prices (WTI near $93) higher and boosting volatility in commodities like gold.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is consolidating after a recent bounce, with the Dollar Index holding near the high‑90s as traders balance signs of softer US labour data against persistent geopolitical risk and still‑attractive US interest‑rate differentials. Central banks in markets from Ukraine to Uzbekistan are adjusting their official dollar reference rates, underlining ongoing FX volatility.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have shown consolidation around the $4,760–$4,880 range as of late April 22, 2026, following recent fluctuations driven by a stronger US dollar, inflation concerns from Middle East tensions, and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold hovered near $4,807–$4,833 per ounce in the days leading up to today, with modest gains earlier in the week but pullbacks amid higher oil prices and geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been trading near four-year highs around 0.71-0.72 against the USD as of late last week, driven by improving global risk sentiment and hopes for de-escalation in Middle East tensions, including US-Iran talks under President Trump. On April 21, 2026, it faced a critical test at key resistance after rallying over 5% from March lows, with AUD/USD hovering near 0.7157 amid ongoing monitoring of the conflict’s impact on energy prices and commodity demand.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25-basis-point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZD held near recent highs around 0.5916 after a 0.40% uptick driven by strong Q1 CPI prints, but remained pinned below 0.5925 due to clashing forces of Middle East geopolitical risks bolstering USD and dovish RBNZ expectations limiting aggressive hikes. With a quiet economic calendar, traders eyed USD weakness and global risk appetite for near-term direction, projecting NZD/USD toward 0.57-0.59 in the coming quarters.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen is trading in a fragile, consolidation‑prone range after a brief rebound from its weakest levels, underpinned by heightened intervention rhetoric and modest expectations of future BoJ tightening, but still facing structural headwinds from the large U.S.–Japan rate differential and strong dollar positioning in global markets.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 18–19 April 2026, with markets anticipating the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, as the bank continues evaluating the December 2025 and prior hikes’ effects amid data-dependent normalization.
• The BOJ will target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and indicate future hikes hinge on impacts to lending, financing, and activity, with Governor Ueda signaling scrutiny of data for potential moves in April or later meetings.
• JGB tapering advances per plan, cutting outright purchases by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026 and slowing to ¥200 billion from April onward, targeting roughly ¥2-3 trillion monthly by mid-2026, adjustable for market stability
• Japan’s economy maintains moderate growth into Q1 2026, building on the Q4 2025 rebound via exports and fiscal measures, though manufacturing sentiment holds soft amid overseas demand weakness and yen pressures.
• Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely stays near 2.3-2.5% y/y in early 2026. Tokyo prints off prior highs but above 2%, while core-core hovers around 2.6%, reflecting sustained but easing inflationary forces.
• Input costs ease further from import peaks, yet services inflation, 5% wage targets in shunto talks, and anchored expectations above 2% support price persistence, with upside risks from yen and geopolitics.
• Near-term real GDP may ease below trend due to tightening and external shocks like Iran tensions, but negative real rates, wage gains, and stimulus should underpin consumption and capex rebound.
• Medium-term, overseas recovery, labor shortages, and productivity lifts are set to fuel wages and core inflation near/above 2%, enabling gradual hikes toward 1% if conditions align.
• The next meeting is on 27 to 28 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets show continued volatility amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, with prices stabilizing after recent swings. Brent crude settled around $98 per barrel on April 21, reflecting a modest 2.71% daily gain but down slightly over the prior month amid ceasefire talks between the US and Iran. OPEC+ plans a gradual output hike of 206,000 barrels per day starting this month, responding to tighter supplies and economic recovery signals, with their next review set for early April.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 22/04/2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.34%, Shanghai Composite down 0.24% Hang Seng up 0.16% ASX down 0.24%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,814.64(-0.31%) Silver at $78.998 (-1.32%), Brent Oil at $94.81 (-0.71%), WTI Oil at $86.48 (-1.06%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.250, UK 10-year yield at 4.8410, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9765

News & Data:

• (CAD) CPI m/m  0.9%  to 1.1%  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed cautious optimism over a possible resolution to the Middle East conflict against continuing tensions between Iran and the United States. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused President Donald Trump of undermining the ceasefire and attempting to pressure Tehran into concessions, saying Iran would not negotiate under threats and had prepared additional strategic responses if needed.

His remarks followed Trump’s warning that “lots of bombs” could be used if a deal is not reached before the fragile ceasefire expires Tuesday evening, raising concerns about renewed military escalation. The warning came even as a U.S. delegation prepared to return to Pakistan for a potential second round of peace talks.

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, investors remained broadly optimistic about equities. Wells Fargo chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon said the economic outlook for the next three months appeared stable.

Oil prices declined slightly, with West Texas Intermediate falling 1.14% and Brent crude dropping 0.59%. Regional markets were mixed: South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.22%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.21%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.28%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged higher, though mainland China’s CSI 300 fell.

U.S. futures rose modestly after Wall Street closed slightly lower overnight, ending the Nasdaq’s 13-day winning streak. 

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD CPI m/m

The post Tuesday 21st April 2026: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Iran–U.S. Tensions Persist Despite Ceasefire Hopes first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session was shaped more by the recalibration of Middle‑East premium risk than by a heavy slate of intraday data: fading expectation of a prolonged escalation into a full‑scale oil‑shock environment pulled Brent down and gold into a consolidation range, while the dollar softened slightly and oil‑linked currencies such as NOK and growth‑sensitive EM‑Asia FX found modest support.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should monitor escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and ceasefire talks, which are driving oil prices higher (Brent above $95/bbl) while pressuring equities and the dollar. U.S. stocks like the S&P 500 dipped 0.2% yesterday amid these risks, snapping rallies, with Apple CEO Tim Cook’s resignation adding to corporate volatility. European and U.S. sessions today face sticky inflation signals boosting currencies like NZD, potential Fed rate cut speculation (targeting 3.25-3.50% early 2026), and broader market hopes for de-escalation.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman-Designate Warsh Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar traded in a volatile range near DXY 100, rebounding modestly from recent lows driven by persistent US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices boosting US terms-of-trade, and steady Fed policy expectations, though peace deal optimism and open Strait of Hormuz reports capped gains against majors like EUR (near $1.18) and GBP ($1.3569).

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth of nearly 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labour data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signalling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29  April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman-Designate Warsh Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is edging modestly lower, trading near 4,828 USD per ounce as investors balance ongoing West Asian geopolitical tensions against a calmer ceasefire backdrop and firmer US yields, which are capping safe‑haven demand. Spot prices remain well above year‑ago levels but are consolidating after a surge to record highs earlier in 2026, with markets currently focused on volatility and range‑bound action between roughly 4,760 and 4,880 USD/oz rather than a fresh breakout.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro’s latest story is mainly about the currency market: EUR/USD has been drifting lower or struggling to sustain gains, as investors favor the dollar in a risk-sensitive environment and wait for clearer signals from central banks and macro data. In Europe’s wider news flow, headlines include an EU-Israel agreement call from the European Left Alliance, Spain’s migrant regularisation drive, Turkey’s security arrests, and Eurostat’s upcoming data releases, all of which add to the broader policy backdrop around the euro area.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 29–30 April 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and deposit facility at 2.00%. This reflects an ongoing commitment to 2% inflation stability amid heightened uncertainties from Middle East tensions and US trade policies under President Trump. Market probabilities indicate around 58% odds of no change, though some banks now price in potential hikes due to rising inflation risks.
• Price dynamics show increasing upside pressures, with headline HICP inflation likely around 2.0-2.2% in early 2026, driven by energy costs from Middle East conflicts offsetting euro strength. Core inflation remains sticky but moderating slowly, with projections revised upward to 2.6% for 2026 overall amid hawkish signals from ECB leadership.
• Updated Eurosystem staff projections for April 2026 may forecast headline inflation at 2.1-2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, with upside risks from energy and trade dominating balanced prior views. A stronger euro provides some counterbalance, but recent data revisions highlight persistent pressures.
• Euro area GDP growth holds steady, with Q2 2026 surveys suggesting 0.2-0.3% qoq growth, in line with 1.1-1.3% annual forecasts through 2027. Defence spending, infrastructure, and low unemployment support resilience against trade headwinds and softer external demand.
• The labour market remains tight, with unemployment steady near 6.4%, bolstered by wage growth and participation gains. Supportive credit conditions continue aiding investment and consumption despite global risks.
• Business sentiment is cautious amid US tariffs, geopolitical flare-ups, and supply chain easing; a somewhat weaker euro boosts exports, while fiscal measures aid domestic activity.
• The Governing Council maintains its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance, scrutinizing inflation, transmission, and external shocks without pre-committing to rate paths.
• Balance sheet normalization advances smoothly, with APP/PEPP wind-downs complete and no liquidity issues; banks show ample reserves and stable funding access.

​The next meeting is on 29 April 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc maintains its safe-haven appeal amid volatile global markets, with minor declines against select currencies like the Iranian Rial but expectations of strengthening versus the Euro based on corporate surveys and prior trends; traders eye broader USD weakness and upcoming inflation data for directional cues.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board assesses current settings as adequate to maintain inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Claimant Count Change (6:00 am GMT)

Average Earnings Index 3m/y (6:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

Today’s pound news is dominated by upcoming UK macro data rather than a single surprise headline. Sterling remains firm against the dollar but less convincing against the euro, with traders focused on today’s employment figures and, more importantly, Wednesday’s inflation report, which will likely set the tone for the pound into the Bank of England meeting.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 19 March 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent in a unanimous decision, following the prior narrow 5–4 vote to hold at the 5 February 2026 meeting. This pause reflects a sharp reversal from earlier market expectations of a 25-basis-point cut, driven by a Middle East conflict sparking global energy and commodity price surges. The March meeting did not include a Monetary Policy Report, with the next one due in April.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) proceeds unchanged at the 2025 pace of gilt holdings reductions, maintaining gradual balance-sheet normalization attuned to liquidity conditions and supportive of a restrictive stance amid new shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation faces near-term upside from the energy shock, reversing prior disinflation trends in domestic prices and wages; pre-shock services inflation had eased but now contends with higher utility and input costs, keeping pressures above the 2 per cent target. MPC projections will update in April, but analysts see inflation at 3-4 per cent by the end of 2026.
• UK growth softens further into Q2 2026, with unemployment risks rising amid potential confidence drops, higher precautionary saving, and widening output gaps; regular pay growth had cooled pre-shock but now faces business cost pass-through.
• Global headwinds intensify via Middle East conflict, driving volatile energy/commodity prices and sterling/gilt swings; MPC deems direct shocks manageable if demand weakens sufficiently to limit second-round effects.
• Inflation risks now tilt upwards from energy persistence and potential wage/cost embedding, offset by downside from demand slack and job losses; prior balance has shifted amid uncertainty on shock duration.
• The MPC adopts a wait-and-see posture post-shock, with policy deemed somewhat restrictive pre-event; all members are ready to act data-dependently for 2 per cent sustainability, eyeing April for fuller impact analysis and possible easing if disinflation resumes. Governor Bailey’s guidance stresses close monitoring without firm-cut commitments.
• The next meeting is on 30 April 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar (CAD) shows resilience amid broader USD weakness on April 21, 2026. Recent reports indicate it hit a 4-week high near 1.37 against the USD last week, driven by a depreciating DXY index and favorable commodity sentiment, though oil price fluctuations tied to Middle East de-escalation talks remain a key influence.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 25 March 2026 meeting, aligning with consensus forecasts and extending the pause in policy adjustments amid balanced risks. The Bank emphasized persistent global uncertainties from Middle East conflicts and U.S. trade policies under President Trump, but affirmed the current stance supports ongoing disinflation without immediate shifts despite elevated energy price volatility.
• U.S. tariff threats and regional geopolitical tensions continue weighing on business sentiment, though Canadian manufacturing PMI has edged higher into expansion territory, with export orders firming on energy demand. Goods exports, led by crude oil, sustained momentum into February, offsetting cautious capex as firms prioritize resilience over aggressive growth.
• Economic growth carried into Q1 2026 at an annualized pace of around 2.2%, building on Q4 2025’s solid performance, fueled by resource exports, government outlays, and manufacturing rebound. February preliminary data points to steady expansion, though winter weather and supply chain frictions modestly curbed potential upside.
• Services sector PMI climbed further above 50, with broad gains in tech, hospitality, and business services; consumer-facing areas showed tentative improvement as real wages rose, though high service costs still restrained discretionary outlays. The Bank sees this diffusion as evidence of rebalancing toward sustainable activity.
• ​National housing resales ticked up in January-February alongside modest price gains, buoyed by stable rates and improved affordability in select regions, while inventory buildup in urban centers prevents excessive tightening. Officials anticipate continued moderation, aided by prudent mortgage rules amid steady household formation.
• Headline CPI eased to about 2.1% year-over-year in February 2026 estimates, staying within the control band, as core gauges like CPI-trim and median dipped to near 2.7% on softer food and durable goods pressures—despite sticky shelter costs. This reinforces the Bank’s view of inflation sustainably approaching the target.
• Policymakers reiterated that 2.25% remains well-calibrated to anchor 2% inflation and foster adjustment, with no cuts signaled barring downside surprises in growth or prices. Attention now turns to Q2 durability, core inflation persistence, and evolving trade/geopolitical clarity.
• The next meeting is on 23 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets are trading softer but remain highly volatile, as geopolitical headlines around the Strait of Hormuz and US–Iran diplomacy continue to dominate price action. Brent crude slipped below 95 dollars per barrel after a strong prior‑week rally, while WTI hovers around the mid‑80s, reflecting profit‑taking and cautious positioning ahead of renewed conflict or ceasefire developments.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.57

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 97.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1721

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1655

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1851

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot:  186.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 184.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 189.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a s resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8679

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8660
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8721
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3478

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3345
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3598
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 213.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 211.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 215.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7846

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7763
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.7918
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 159.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 157.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 160.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                     

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3740

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3594

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3806

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.7089

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6999

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7210

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5867

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5777

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5958

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 48,770

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,578.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,913.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24.235.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,418.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,330.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,964.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,835.91

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,191.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 73,432.05

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 70,413.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 78,331.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,383.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,162.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 2,465.95
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 95.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 78.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 105.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,863.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,701.11
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,964.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 21st April 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

US Stocks Drift Despite Increased Gulf Tensions – S&P off 0.24%
US equity markets closed marginally lower overnight, with investors continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East while largely brushing off ongoing geopolitical risks. The Dow Jones finished virtually unchanged, slipping just -0.01% to 49,442, while the S&P 500 declined -0.24% to 7,109, and the Nasdaq fell -0.26% to 24,404. In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields edged slightly higher, with the 2-year yield rising 1.2 basis points to 3.720% and the 10-year yield up 0.3 basis points to 4.251%. Currency markets saw mixed flows, with the US dollar initially strengthening on safe-haven demand before reversing course to eventually close marginally lower, with the DXY down 0.05% at 98.05. Commodity markets were more reactive to geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude climbing 4.30% to $94.27 and WTI crude rising 4.65% to $87.79, as traders priced in the risk of further supply disruptions. In contrast, gold eased slightly, slipping -0.20% to $4,820.66, as haven demand remained subdued.

Investors’ Glasses Remain ¾ Full Despite Strait Closure
Some market participants were surprised by the market’s reaction to the updates from the Middle East over the weekend. Things had been looking rosy going into the weekend, but strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and its closure, alongside the possibility of talks between the US and Iran being delayed, had markets open on the back foot yesterday. However, the downside moves were limited, with stocks in particular proving resilient despite oil prices spiking higher and remaining at elevated levels for the trading day. Attention now moves to whether any talks will take place this week, with both sides remaining cagey, and when exactly the ceasefire between the two nations is set to end – President Trump announced the two-week ceasefire on April 7, so it is set to expire sometime today. Traders are expecting another lively day, with confirmation of talks likely to lead to more relief rallies, while if hostilities resume, the muted reaction that we saw in markets yesterday is unlikely to occur again, especially if oil pushes up through the $100 level again.

Geopolitics and Data to Make for a Busy Day Ahead
Looking ahead, geopolitical developments will remain a key driver of sentiment, though focus will also turn to upcoming economic data, which should keep volatility elevated across all three trading sessions. In the Asian session, New Zealand CPI has already been released, the data printing at +0.9% q/q against the expected +0.8%, pushing expectations for a rate hike from the RBNZ to as early as July. The European session brings UK labour market data, including Claimant Count (exp 22.6k), Average Earnings Index (exp 3.6%), and the unemployment rate (exp 5.2%) early in the session, with any deviations from expectations likely to see some strong moves in the pound. In the New York session, attention will centre on retail sales data (exp +1.4% m/m) and core retail sales (exp +1.4% m/m), due out early in the day, before attention shifts to Washington, DC, and the scheduled testimony from Fed Chair-designate Kevin Warsh in front of the Senate Committee. Pending home sales data (exp 0.0% m/m) also features, and we are set to hear from the Fed’s Christopher Waller later in the day.

The post General Market Analysis – 21/04/26 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets were led by a mix of renewed geopolitical risk around the Iran conflict and a still‑robust macro backdrop, pushing equities and index futures modestly lower despite prior record‑high levels, while oil prices and energy‑linked assets rallied on fresh supply‑risk concerns. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields held firm or ticked higher, reflecting safe‑haven demand and persistent yield differentials, making rate‑sensitive growth stocks, energy‑sector names, and USD crosses the most directly impacted instruments.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Middle‑East‑related oil and risk‑sentiment swings, fresh China trade numbers that may confirm or chill the regional export‑growth story, and Japanese industrial data feeding into BoJ‑policy expectations; together these will shape intraday direction in Asian equities, commodity‑linked FX (AUD, SGD, KRW), and local‑currency fixed‑income, with any escalation in US‑Iran tensions likely to amplify safe‑haven flows and tighten margins‑sensitive sectors.

​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman-Designate Warsh Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar maintained firmness, buoyed by safe-haven flows from Iran Strait disruptions, oil price surges, and cautious Fed policy amid sticky inflation, with DXY hovering near 100 despite some local currency adjustments like Uzbekistan’s lower official rate; analysts foresee near-term gains but longer-term softening as risks ease.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chairman-Designate Warsh Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)

Pending Home Sales m/m (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices have shown resilience amid geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts as of April 21, 2026. Recent trading data indicate spot gold hovering around $4,800–$4,833 per ounce, with a modest uptick following a brief stall near monthly peaks driven by US-Iran peace hopes that tempered safe-haven demand.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a slight decline against the US Dollar, trading at around 0.7157, down 0.19% from the prior session amid renewed Middle East tensions impacting risk assets. This followed a strong recent performance, with the AUD/USD reaching four-year highs near 0.7192 earlier in the week, driven by optimism over potential US-Iran de-escalation, resilient Australian jobs data (unemployment steady at 4.3%), and China’s solid Q1 growth supporting commodity demand.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25 basis point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.
• Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2–3% target midpoint. RBA’s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January’s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.
• January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.
• The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.
• Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.
• Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.
• Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.
• Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.
• Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZD remains range-bound below 0.5900, pressured by USD caution from US-Iran talks and contained NZ inflation (3.4% food CPI), reducing near-term RBNZ rate cut odds to just 10 basis points in Q3; no major April 21 events beyond business confidence data suggest imminent volatility, though China ties and global risk appetite will drive near-term moves.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.
• The MPC continues its data-dependent “wait-and-see” approach after February’s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325-basis-point cuts against inflation’s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if the recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.
• Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.
• Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.
• Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.
• Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment—including stronger dairy/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar—offsetting oil shocks and prior China/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.
• Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.
• The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen holds steady but vulnerable around 159 USD amid BoJ rate hike speculation, intervention watches, and wide US-Japan yield gaps; traders await the central bank’s April 28 decision for direction, with officials signaling readiness to act against excessive weakening.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 18–19 April 2026, with markets anticipating the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, as the bank continues evaluating the December 2025 and prior hikes’ effects amid data-dependent normalization.
• The BOJ will target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and indicate future hikes hinge on impacts to lending, financing, and activity, with Governor Ueda signaling scrutiny of data for potential moves in April or later meetings.
• JGB tapering advances per plan, cutting outright purchases by ¥400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026 and slowing to ¥200 billion from April onward, targeting roughly ¥2-3 trillion monthly by mid-2026, adjustable for market stability
• Japan’s economy maintains moderate growth into Q1 2026, building on the Q4 2025 rebound via exports and fiscal measures, though manufacturing sentiment holds soft amid overseas demand weakness and yen pressures.
• Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely stays near 2.3-2.5% y/y in early 2026. Tokyo prints off prior highs but above 2%, while core-core hovers around 2.6%, reflecting sustained but easing inflationary forces.
• Input costs ease further from import peaks, yet services inflation, 5% wage targets in shunto talks, and anchored expectations above 2% support price persistence, with upside risks from yen and geopolitics.
• Near-term real GDP may ease below trend due to tightening and external shocks like Iran tensions, but negative real rates, wage gains, and stimulus should underpin consumption and capex rebound.
• Medium-term, overseas recovery, labor shortages, and productivity lifts are set to fuel wages and core inflation near/above 2%, enabling gradual hikes toward 1% if conditions align.
• The next meeting is on 27 to 28 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets remain highly volatile today, driven by ongoing uncertainties around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz transit issues. WTI crude closed the prior week near $83.60 after dipping toward $79, with analysts forecasting a turbulent session amid reports of slowed shipping in the strait and potential early spikes above $90 if supply fears intensify. Brent has similarly fluctuated, recently around $98, as ceasefire violations like Israel’s strikes on Lebanon stir renewed tensions despite Trump’s two-week deal.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.69%, Shanghai Composite up 0.76% Hang Seng up 0.77% ASX up 0.07%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,814.34(-1.33%) Silver at $79.498 (-2.89%), Brent Oil at $95.66 (5.78%), WTI Oil at $87.81 (6.31%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.264, UK 10-year yield at 4.8090, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9993

News & Data:

• (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases  6.17B  to 23.81B  expected

Markets Update:

European markets opened lower Monday as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran raised concerns that a fragile ceasefire could collapse. The pan-European Stoxx 600 slipped about 0.9% in early trading, with major regional indexes also posting losses. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined roughly 0.4%, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.3%, France’s CAC 40 fell nearly 1.1%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB lost around 1.2%, while most sectors traded in negative territory shortly after the opening bell.

The weakness followed reports that a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer fired on and disabled an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman before Marines boarded and seized it. The move marked a further escalation after Iran reportedly targeted commercial ships attempting to pass through the same maritime route earlier on Sunday.

Since last week, Washington has enforced a naval blockade on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. Tehran considers the action a violation of the ceasefire and cited it as a reason for cancelling expected negotiations in Islamabad.

President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. could strike Iranian infrastructure if Tehran rejected Washington’s terms. Meanwhile, U.S. futures declined despite mixed Asia-Pacific trading, while investors awaited further geopolitical developments and policy signals.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD CPI m/m

The post Monday 20th April 2026: European Stocks Slide as U.S.–Iran Tensions Threaten Ceasefire Stability first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 April 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session was priced heavily around the U.S.–Iran escalation story, with equities on modestly divergent moves, oil and dollar‑linked assets in focus, and Asian EM FX and rates reflecting both the immediate war‑risk shock and the longer‑term drag of higher energy prices on growth and inflation.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Iran war’s ongoing volatility, including oil price surges from Strait of Hormuz tensions, mixed signals on ceasefires boosting U.S. stocks via “TINA” trades, and corporate updates like National Australia Bank’s $503 million impairment from Mideast risks. In macro data, watch U.S. retail sales and S&P PMI for economic health amid energy shocks, European PMIs and sentiment indices for ECB vigilance on growth/inflation risks flagged by Lagarde, and global indicators like China’s steady LPRs plus UK inflation ahead.
​
The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar rebounded firmly, hitting a one-week high near 98.5 on the DXY as Middle East flare-ups, including Hormuz disruptions, spurred safe-haven flows despite fleeting peace optimism. Sticky core inflation, rising oil costs, and Fed hawkishness versus dovish peers like the ECB and BoJ bolstered its yield appeal, pressuring EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD lower in early trading. Traders eye upcoming data for DXY’s push above 100, amid forecasts of prolonged strength tempered by 2026’s broader uncertainties.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.
• Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.
• Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth of nearly 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%–2.7% amid softer consumer spending and labour data.
• December 2025’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signalling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.
• The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.
• The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29  April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is edging lower in early‑day trade, hovering around 4,760–4,830 USD/oz after a steep prior‑week rally that briefly stabilized above 4,800 as a key technical level. Safe‑haven demand linked to lingering geopolitical and inflation risks has kept prices elevated over the past month and year, but the release of relatively more stable macro data and eased Middle‑East tensions are now prompting a modest profit‑taking pullback, with traders closely watching resistance near 4,930 and support near 4,640 to decide whether the next leg is higher toward 5,000 or temporarily lower toward 4,600.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (4:40 pm GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Swiss franc is trading near multi‑month ranges against the US dollar and euro, underpinned by a mix of safe‑haven demand and concerns about Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention if the currency strengthens too quickly. USD/CHF is hovering just below key resistance around 0.8000.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 29–30 April 2026 meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and deposit facility at 2.00%. This reflects an ongoing commitment to 2% inflation stability amid heightened uncertainties from Middle East tensions and US trade policies under President Trump. Market probabilities indicate around 58% odds of no change, though some banks now price in potential hikes due to rising inflation risks.
• Price dynamics show increasing upside pressures, with headline HICP inflation likely around 2.0-2.2% in early 2026, driven by energy costs from Middle East conflicts offsetting euro strength. Core inflation remains sticky but moderating slowly, with projections revised upward to 2.6% for 2026 overall amid hawkish signals from ECB leadership.
• Updated Eurosystem staff projections for April 2026 may forecast headline inflation at 2.1-2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028, with upside risks from energy and trade dominating balanced prior views. A stronger euro provides some counterbalance, but recent data revisions highlight persistent pressures.
• Euro area GDP growth holds steady, with Q2 2026 surveys suggesting 0.2-0.3% qoq growth, in line with 1.1-1.3% annual forecasts through 2027. Defence spending, infrastructure, and low unemployment support resilience against trade headwinds and softer external demand.
• The labour market remains tight, with unemployment steady near 6.4%, bolstered by wage growth and participation gains. Supportive credit conditions continue aiding investment and consumption despite global risks.
• Business sentiment is cautious amid US tariffs, geopolitical flare-ups, and supply chain easing; a somewhat weaker euro boosts exports, while fiscal measures aid domestic activity.
• The Governing Council maintains its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance, scrutinizing inflation, transmission, and external shocks without pre-committing to rate paths.
• Balance sheet normalization advances smoothly, with APP/PEPP wind-downs complete and no liquidity issues; banks show ample reserves and stable funding access.

​The next meeting is on 29 April 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc maintains its robust safe-haven status with USD/CHF near 0.78, driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and SNB’s vigilant policy stance at 0% rates, though no fresh catalysts dominate today amid a quiet economic calendar; recent pullbacks from 0.80 resistance suggest potential consolidation, tempered by the currency’s long-term 9.51% yearly gain.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its monetary policy assessment on 19 March 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, continuing the extended pause since September 2025, as the Governing Board assesses current settings as adequate to maintain inflation near the target without resorting to negative rates.
• Inflation data since December indicate persistent weakness, with headline CPI hovering around 0% year-on-year through early 2026 and core measures subdued at roughly 0.4%, underscoring limited price pressures and lingering, though contained, deflation risks.
• The SNB’s updated conditional inflation forecast shows minimal change from December, with averages of about 0.2% in 2025 (now complete), 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 under a steady 0% policy rate. However, recent flat CPI readings may slightly lower near-term expectations, preserving scope for further easing if needed.
• Global conditions remain challenging, marked by U.S. tariff escalations under President Trump, subdued external demand, and uncertainties in major export markets such as Europe and the U.S., prompting the SNB to exercise caution despite resilient Swiss domestic activity.
• Sentiment in manufacturing and export sectors stays soft amid franc appreciation and weaker foreign orders, squeezing margins. Yet, overall GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2026, with unemployment edging up modestly from historic lows.
• The SNB reaffirms its readiness to intervene via rate cuts or FX operations should deflationary pressures intensify, while emphasizing clear communication through detailed meeting minutes and coordination with global partners on currency matters.

The next meeting is on 18 June 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound edges lower by 0.11% to 1.3502 versus the USD, influenced by Strait of Hormuz reopening boosting some gains, yet weighed by UK jobs weakness (5.2% unemployment), neutral RSI at 40, and US NFP anticipation; technical outlooks favor buys from 1.3480-1.3540 targeting 1.3600-1.3620 amid fragile uptrends.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 19 March 2026, maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent in a unanimous decision, following the prior narrow 5–4 vote to hold at the 5 February 2026 meeting. This pause reflects a sharp reversal from earlier market expectations of a 25-basis-point cut, driven by a Middle East conflict sparking global energy and commodity price surges. The March meeting did not include a Monetary Policy Report, with the next one due in April.
• Quantitative tightening (QT) proceeds unchanged at the 2025 pace of gilt holdings reductions, maintaining gradual balance-sheet normalization attuned to liquidity conditions and supportive of a restrictive stance amid new shocks.
• Headline CPI inflation faces near-term upside from the energy shock, reversing prior disinflation trends in domestic prices and wages; pre-shock services inflation had eased but now contends with higher utility and input costs, keeping pressures above the 2 per cent target. MPC projections will update in April, but analysts see inflation at 3-4 per cent by the end of 2026.
• UK growth softens further into Q2 2026, with unemployment risks rising amid potential confidence drops, higher precautionary saving, and widening output gaps; regular pay growth had cooled pre-shock but now faces business cost pass-through.
• Global headwinds intensify via Middle East conflict, driving volatile energy/commodity prices and sterling/gilt swings; MPC deems direct shocks manageable if demand weakens sufficiently to limit second-round effects.
• Inflation risks now tilt upwards from energy persistence and potential wage/cost embedding, offset by downside from demand slack and job losses; prior balance has shifted amid uncertainty on shock duration.
• The MPC adopts a wait-and-see posture post-shock, with policy deemed somewhat restrictive pre-event; all members are ready to act data-dependently for 2 per cent sustainability, eyeing April for fuller impact analysis and possible easing if disinflation resumes. Governor Bailey’s guidance stresses close monitoring without firm-cut commitments.
• The next meeting is on 30 April 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

Median CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Trimmed CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

Common CPI y/y (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar held steady near 1.37-1.39 against the USD, building on a recent 4-week high from oil rallies and reduced Middle East tensions (e.g., Iran’s waterway reopening), while limiting losses despite USD safe-haven demand. Forecasts signal mild CAD strengthening into late 2026 amid stabilizing commodities and policy divergence.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council held the overnight rate target steady at 2.25% at its 25 March 2026 meeting, aligning with consensus forecasts and extending the pause in policy adjustments amid balanced risks. The Bank emphasized persistent global uncertainties from Middle East conflicts and U.S. trade policies under President Trump, but affirmed the current stance supports ongoing disinflation without immediate shifts despite elevated energy price volatility.
• U.S. tariff threats and regional geopolitical tensions continue weighing on business sentiment, though Canadian manufacturing PMI has edged higher into expansion territory, with export orders firming on energy demand. Goods exports, led by crude oil, sustained momentum into February, offsetting cautious capex as firms prioritize resilience over aggressive growth.
• Economic growth carried into Q1 2026 at an annualized pace of around 2.2%, building on Q4 2025’s solid performance, fueled by resource exports, government outlays, and manufacturing rebound. February preliminary data points to steady expansion, though winter weather and supply chain frictions modestly curbed potential upside.
• Services sector PMI climbed further above 50, with broad gains in tech, hospitality, and business services; consumer-facing areas showed tentative improvement as real wages rose, though high service costs still restrained discretionary outlays. The Bank sees this diffusion as evidence of rebalancing toward sustainable activity.
• ​National housing resales ticked up in January-February alongside modest price gains, buoyed by stable rates and improved affordability in select regions, while inventory buildup in urban centers prevents excessive tightening. Officials anticipate continued moderation, aided by prudent mortgage rules amid steady household formation.
• Headline CPI eased to about 2.1% year-over-year in February 2026 estimates, staying within the control band, as core gauges like CPI-trim and median dipped to near 2.7% on softer food and durable goods pressures—despite sticky shelter costs. This reinforces the Bank’s view of inflation sustainably approaching the target.
• Policymakers reiterated that 2.25% remains well-calibrated to anchor 2% inflation and foster adjustment, with no cuts signaled barring downside surprises in growth or prices. Attention now turns to Q2 durability, core inflation persistence, and evolving trade/geopolitical clarity.
• The next meeting is on 23 April 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on April 20, 2026, are experiencing extreme volatility driven by escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose sharply to around $94.76 per barrel, up nearly 5%, while WTI crude hovered near $83-84 after dipping to $79 last week, with forecasts warning of potential surges toward $100 amid shipping disruptions and a US Navy seizure of an Iranian vessel.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 April 2026 first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 98.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fiboancci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 95.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 1000.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

cccc

1st support: 1.1631

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again

1st resistance: 1.2044

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 184.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 181.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 189.52
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8675

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8619
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8769
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3437

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3195
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 213.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 209.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 217.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7851

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7752
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8030
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 157.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 154.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 161.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                              

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.3725

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3647

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3940

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6943

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6676

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.7182

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5946

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.57747

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6079

Supporting reasons: Identified a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 49,687.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 46,872.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 50,477.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,350.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,332.36

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,451.76

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 6,829.63

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,531.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 7,205.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 76,476.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 59,822.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 85,026.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 2,618.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1,823.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,053.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 87.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 70.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 119.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,858.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,367.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 5,464.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 20th April 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog.

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