Market News

Nasdaq Futures Await Nvidia Earnings: 29,310 and 29,200 Define the Next Move

Nasdaq futures are trading inside a narrow decision zone ahead of Nvidia's earnings. A sustained move above 29,310 would activate the bullish scenario and a possible bull flag breakout. A sustained break below 29,200 would strengthen the bearish case. Until either gateway holds, the market may continue rotating between them.

Key takeaways for Nasdaq traders and investors today

• Bullish threshold: 29,310. Nasdaq futures need to move above this level and remain there. A brief wick or the first crossing is not enough.

• Bearish threshold: 29,200. Sustained trade below this level would take price beneath the lower edge of accepted value and increase the risk of a larger…

EUR/USD

• 1.1750 (EUR 1.31 bn)
• 1.1700 (EUR 1.01 bn)
• 1.1675 (EUR 1.12 bn)

USD/JPY

• 160.00 (US$ 782.68 mn)
• 159.00 (US$ 996.56 mn)

GBP/USD

• 1.3625 (GBP 600.03 mn)

AUD/USD

• 0.7220 (AUD 360.38 mn)
• 0.7160 (AUD 487.77 mn)

EUR/GBP

• 0.8600 (EUR 782.01 mn)
• 0.8500 (EUR 490.33 mn)

WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?

The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.

When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).

Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For…

Nvidia Earnings Tonight: What NVDA Must Deliver and How Traders May Approach the Reaction

Nvidia reports its fiscal second-quarter FY2027 results after the market closes today. Wall Street expects another exceptional growth quarter, but the harder test is whether revenue, guidance, margins and AI-demand commentary can clear expectations already built into NVDA. Recent earnings reactions have become less forgiving, while options positioning offers neither a clear bullish endorsement nor a strong bearish warning.

Key takeaways for Nvidia traders and investors before earnings

• The bar is much higher than a basic earnings beat. Consensus is near $92 billion in revenue and roughly $2.09 in adjusted earnings per share, compared with Nvidia's own…

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated the need to act early to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, warning that second-round effects remain a key risk as price pressures persist across the Eurozone.

She noted that inflation is likely to remain above the ECB’s 2% target for an extended period, which could eventually feed through into wages and broader inflation. She stressed the importance of keeping inflation expectations firmly anchored.

Schnabel noted that financial markets appear to understand the ECB’s reaction function well and reiterated that the extent of policy tightening will depend on incoming economic data.

She also pointed out that Eurozone economy appears to be gaining further momentum, which could keep…

• ICYMI: US begins returning staff to Middle East embassies after Iran war evacuations
• Hawkish board member Tamura to represent BOJ at Jackson Hole instead of Ueda
• Asian shares edge higher as markets await Nvidia earnings, US inflation data
• Gold holds near three month high as markets await US inflation data
• AUD higher, Australian CPI beats forecasts as core inflation surprises to the upside
• Australian monthly CPI (July 2026) 3.5 % y/y (vs. 3.2% expected)
• Preview, today: Fed's favoured inflation gauge lands two days before Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
• Japan's services inflation accelerates to 3.6pct in July, beating forecasts
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7829 (vs. estimate at 6.7166)
• US weighs further trade escalation after Canada sets…

The gains across both Japanese and Korean equities reflect a broadly risk-on tone heading into what is genuinely one of the more consequential 24 hour stretches for global markets this quarter, spanning Nvidia's results, the US PCE print, and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A soft PCE reading is being framed as the most supportive outcome for equities generally, since it would reduce the odds of a Fed rate rise and lower the discount rate applied to growth and technology stocks. Japan and Korea's advances, led respectively by broad market strength and by chipmakers specifically, suggest investors are positioning for a favourable outcome from Nvidia rather than hedging against disappointment, though the divergence between…

The gradual return of diplomatic staff is a meaningful, if incremental, signal that Washington now assesses near term escalation risk with Iran as lower, even though the underlying conflict remains formally unresolved, with the naval blockade of Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz both still in place. This sits alongside the broader de-escalatory signals already seen this week, the Rubio comments on shifting from strikes to sanctions, and the unconfirmed ceasefire report, adding another data point supporting the view that active combat operations are unlikely to resume in the near term. For oil markets already pricing in reduced geopolitical risk, this reinforces rather than reverses the recent trend, though the partial nature of the…

Ueda's decision to skip Jackson Hole removes one of the more direct opportunities for the BOJ governor to signal policy intent on the world stage this week, shifting attention instead to whether he attends the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, running 31 August to 1 September. With markets already near fully pricing a September BOJ hike following the joint US-Japan yen intervention and a nudge from Treasury Secretary Bessent, any sidelines interaction between Ueda and Bessent at that G20 gathering could carry outsized signalling value for yen crosses. In the interim, Thursday's speech and press conference from Deputy Governor Himino becomes the more immediate catalyst, while sending a…

Russian state-owned RIA is out with a report saying there is an Iran-US deal, citing Pakistani and Iranian sources. They call it a ceasefire deal that includes free navigation in Hormuz and say it will be announced in the coming days.

The Russian media hasn't really been a factor in the leak-fest around negotiations so it's tough to handicap. It's still the Russian press though so I'd be skeptical.

That said, there has been heavy selling in oil all week so there's a bit of smoke here. The US pulled its punches on the sanctions talk yesterday as well and Iran's President has been talking frequently about seeking peace. Keep an eye on this one as we also got the Iran-Pakistan deal announced today.

Big h/t to @newsquawk for the scoop.

Update:…

The scale of the beat, both on headline and on the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure, materially changes the policy conversation heading into September. A 0.5% monthly increase in the trimmed mean, against forecasts of just 0.3%, is the kind of number that makes it very difficult for the RBA to wave through as noise, particularly once the detail shows the pressure wasn't confined to petrol. A 1% monthly rise in market goods and services excluding volatile items, and a 1.5% jump in discretionary spending excluding tobacco, points to broad based demand side pressure rather than a narrow, temporary shock. The Australian dollar's immediate jump reflects markets repricing the odds of another hike rather than a hold, and this is a genuine…

Gold's ability to hold its recent gains without giving much back suggests the market is comfortable with its current positioning ahead of today's inflation print, rather than nervously unwinding into the event. The setup favours further upside if the PCE data comes in soft and Warsh strikes a balanced or dovish tone at Jackson Hole on Friday, since that combination would reinforce expectations for lower real yields and reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. Renewed concern about US fiscal sustainability, a theme already stirred by the Treasury's bond buyback intervention, is flagged as a further potential driver, one that could support gold even independent of the near term rate path. Separately, easing…

Today's PCE print carries added weight given its timing, landing just two days ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote and before Nvidia's earnings, making this a genuinely stacked stretch for US macro risk. A softer than expected core reading would likely reinforce the case for continued rate cuts and could pressure the dollar while supporting risk assets, whereas a hotter print would revive the hawkish argument that has already produced an unusually split FOMC vote and rising discount rate dissent. Given June's headline figure was a rare negative print, today's data will also be read as a signal of whether that dip was a genuine turn or a one off distortion, with the answer likely to shape how much weight markets place on…