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July 2026 inflation data from Australia. Background this here, preview.
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.5%
1% (MoM)
Core inflation, the Trimmed Mean CPI 3.6% (YoY)
Trimmed Mean 0.5% (MoM)
I'll have more to come on this separately, details and RBA implications
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
With consensus sitting less than one percent above Nvidia's own guidance midpoint, the setup leaves little room for a clean beat to move the stock on its own, the market reaction is more likely to hinge on the Q3 outlook, gross margin trajectory and any colour on Blackwell Ultra execution than on the headline Q2 number. Nvidia's guidance already assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, so any shift in that stance, in either direction, would be one of the few genuine surprises available. The stock enters the print having snapped a seven session losing streak on Tuesday alongside a broader semiconductor rally, meaning some optimism is already priced in ahead of the release, which raises the bar for a positive reaction even if the…
An escalation of the US Canada trade dispute adds a fresh source of policy uncertainty at a moment when markets are already digesting a volatile Fed rate outlook and unresolved Middle East risk. Canada remains one of the largest US trading partners, so further tariff action carries meaningful cross border supply chain implications, particularly for steel, aluminium, autos and agricultural sectors already caught up in the current dispute. The dollar and broader risk sentiment are unlikely to move sharply on early stage White House commentary alone, but a further escalation once Canada's own retaliatory tariffs take effect in September would raise the stakes considerably, particularly for sectors with tightly integrated cross border supply…
The upside surprise adds another data point to the case for a near term BOJ hike, arriving alongside already sharply shifted economist expectations for a September move to 1.25%. With core consumer inflation also accelerating on the back of a weak yen and elevated import costs tied to the Iran conflict, the breadth of price pressure now spans both consumer and business facing measures, which strengthens the argument that the BOJ is genuinely behind the curve rather than facing a temporary spike. For yen crosses, this reinforces rather than shifts the existing narrative, since a September hike is already the majority view among economists, but it raises the cost of any surprise hold, since the data keeps stacking in favour of tightening…
Japan July 2026 Services PPI +3.6% y/y
And +0.4% m/m
Just the data this post.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.The minutes reveal a hawkish contingent one bank larger than the public FOMC vote suggested, since Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid does not hold a policy vote this year and his view would not otherwise have been visible. That reinforces the picture from the FOMC minutes themselves, that support for tightening extended well beyond the three officially dissenting presidents, and adds to the case that the Fed's rate path remains genuinely contested rather than settled at a hold. For rate markets, this detail is unlikely to move pricing dramatically on its own since it reflects sentiment ahead of a meeting three weeks old, but it adds weight to the argument that Fed Chair Warsh faces real internal pressure to justify a continued hold…
Barkin's comments add a senior Fed voice to a debate that has already unsettled bond markets this month, following the sharp Treasury sell off that forced an extraordinary buyback intervention and pushed long dated yields to multi decade highs. While he stopped short of predicting a near term crisis, his direct warning that investors could eventually stop buying US debt echoes concerns already raised by figures across Wall Street this year. The comments carry additional weight given they came alongside his restated preference for holding rates steady on evidence of easing inflation, while leaving the door open to a hike if price pressures become embedded, a combination that leaves the rate path looking data dependent rather than settled.…
The sharp shift in economist expectations points to a BOJ that is now genuinely behind the curve on tightening, with the terminal rate view moving higher and the timeline compressing in the space of a single month. For yen crosses, this raises the stakes around the September meeting considerably, since a hike is now largely priced and any delay risks a disorderly reaction given how quickly consensus has moved. At the same time, the poll's finding that last month's coordinated intervention was largely ineffective suggests the yen remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure regardless of what the BOJ does, particularly if Takaichi's fiscal plans proceed without clear funding. Traders will likely treat the September decision as a binary…
A message that Washington is pausing major combat operations against Iran, if true, removes one of the more acute tail risks that had been supporting a geopolitical premium in crude. Combined with reports that naval mine clearance has reopened most of the Strait of Hormuz and that tanker traffic through the southern lane has picked up meaningfully, the news points toward a steadier physical flow of oil out of the Gulf rather than a renewed escalation. Markets are likely to treat this as reinforcing the recent pullback in prices rather than as a standalone catalyst, given crude has already been sliding on separate reports of a possible ceasefire and softer than expected sanctions detail. The framing that pressure continues at least until…
Oil inventory data, via oilprice.com:
Earlier:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.