Market News

A message that Washington is pausing major combat operations against Iran, if true, removes one of the more acute tail risks that had been supporting a geopolitical premium in crude. Combined with reports that naval mine clearance has reopened most of the Strait of Hormuz and that tanker traffic through the southern lane has picked up meaningfully, the news points toward a steadier physical flow of oil out of the Gulf rather than a renewed escalation. Markets are likely to treat this as reinforcing the recent pullback in prices rather than as a standalone catalyst, given crude has already been sliding on separate reports of a possible ceasefire and softer than expected sanctions detail. The framing that pressure continues at least until…

Oil inventory data, via oilprice.com:

Earlier:

• Oil slides $2 on unconfirmed report of US Iran ceasefire, Hormuz reopening

The GBPUSD has attracted steady buying since bottoming near 1.3272 on July 28. That move extended to 1.3674 on Friday before the pair shifted into consolidation over the last three trading days.

Today’s price action has remained confined between 1.3623 and 1.3652—a narrow 29-pip range. Although the market has paused, the sideways trading has allowed the rising 100-hour moving average to catch up with the price. That moving average currently comes in at 1.36329.

Apart from a few brief dips below the level, buyers have continued to lean against the 100-hour moving average and maintain the bullish bias. The current price is trading near 1.3642, roughly 10 pips above that key technical barometer.

As long as the price remains above the 100-hour…

Before I start .... the big developing news, if true:

• Russian media report says there is an Iran-US deal

On with the preview!

A soft headline print carries limited market weight given the widely flagged base effect, so trader focus will sit squarely on the trimmed mean. A reading at or below the 3.5% consensus would reinforce pricing for an RBA hold in September and could see the Aussie dollar give back some ground on reduced tightening expectations. A hotter than expected trimmed mean, closer to the 0.4% month on month pace flagged by Westpac, risks reviving talk of further policy tightening later in the year and would likely support AUD buying. FX desks have flagged the release as the week's key domestic catalyst, with AUD crosses expected…

Brent and WTI both fell around two dollars within the hour on the report, adding to a slide that has already taken crude down roughly five percent from last week's highs. The reaction shows how sensitive the market remains to any signal of a resolution given how much of the current price still reflects a geopolitical risk premium tied to Hormuz. However, the move looks stretched relative to the strength of the sourcing behind it. A single wire citing unnamed foreign military and security contacts is a thin basis for a two dollar repricing, and desks should be alert to a sharp reversal if the report fails to gain traction on other newswires or from Tehran's own state media in the hours ahead.

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Oil is trading a rumour, not a confirmed…

• There are rumors of a Russian media saying there is an Iran-US deal
• ECB sources report: Policymakers are ready to raise rates in Sep
• US Treas. Sec. Bessent: Iran leadership is feeling the economic pressure
• Iran and Oman propose a joint temporary shipping lane
• Canada announces counter tariffs convering roughly $20 billion of products
• Fed's Collins: Inflation is still too high
• Richmond Fed manufacturing composite index +4 vs +5 prior
• US Conference Board August consumer confidence 89.4 vs 90.2 expected
• US New home sales for July 0.607M vs 0.620M estimate
• US June CaseShiller 20-city home price index +2.1% y/y vs +1.7% expected
• Canada July flash wholesale trade -0.6%

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down $4.25 to $80.77
• US 10-year yields down 8.1 bps to 4.62%
• Gold up…

US stocks closed higher, led by gains in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100. Chip and AI-related stocks were among the strongest performers as investors positioned ahead of several important earnings reports this week.

The closing levels:

• Dow Industrial Average rose 160.02 points, or 0.30%, to 53,582.37
• S&P 500 rose 24.42 points, or 0.32%, to 7,677.27
• Nasdaq Composite rose 171.11 points, or 0.66%, to 26,151.30
• Nasdaq 100 rose 186.05 points, or 0.64%, to 29,209.23
• Russell 2000 rose 14.49 points, or 0.50%, to 3,010.02

Nvidia shares snapped a seven-day losing streak, rising 2.19% ahead of its earnings release after the close tomorrow. The results will be a major test for Nvidia and the broader AI trade, with investors…

Before i go on ... some news to be aware of:

• There are rumors of a Russian media saying there is an Iran-US deal

Back to the data agenda ... eyes on the Australian July month CPI data today. Monthly CPI data used to be very much in second place compared to the quarterly data, but not any more. I'll get a preview of today's data posted separately.

Until then, as background info:

Australia's shift to a monthly Consumer Price Index as the nation's primary inflation measure marks the most significant change to the country's price statistics in decades, ending the quarterly release's century-long role as the headline benchmark for monetary policy.

The transition traces back to September 2022, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics introduced a…

Russian state-owned RIA is out with a report saying there is an Iran-US deal, citing Pakistani and Iranian sources. They call it a ceasefire deal that includes free navigation in Hormuz and say it will be announced in the coming days.

The Russian media hasn't really been a factor in the leak-fest around negotiations so it's tough to handicap. It's still the Russian press though so I'd be skeptical.

That said, there has been heavy selling in oil all week so there's a bit of smoke here. The US pulled its punches on the sanctions talk yesterday as well and Iran's President has been talking frequently about seeking peace. Keep an eye on this one as we also got the Iran-Pakistan deal announced today.

Big h/t to @newsquawk for the scoop.

Update:…

ECB sources from Reuters:

• Policymakers ready to raise rates to stem effects of Iran war
• Little appetite at ECB to signal further tightening

The market is 94% priced for a Sept 10 rate hike and fully priced for another hike by April.

Zoom earnings preview: Could its Anthropic investment give ZM stock an extra boost?

Zoom will report its second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings after the US market closes on August 25. Investors expect approximately $1.48 in adjusted earnings per share and $1.27 billion in revenue.

Those numbers matter, but this Zoom report has an unusual second angle. Zoom invested early in Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI assistant. Since Anthropic’s valuation has risen sharply, Zoom’s investment may now be worth considerably more than the value previously shown on its balance sheet.

Key takeaways

• Zoom is expected to report approximately $1.48 in adjusted EPS and $1.27 billion in revenue.

• Investors should watch revenue guidance, enterprise growth and…

Crude oil futures are settling at $82.36, down $2.65, or 3.12%, on the day.

Fundamentally, the decline reflects an easing of the geopolitical risk premium as traders see the latest U.S. sanctions against Iran as less threatening to global supplies than direct military action. Reports of diplomatic progress and the possible return of U.S. diplomats to the region have also reduced fears of a broader conflict or prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the market remains vulnerable to a renewed price spike if diplomacy fails or regional supply flows are disrupted.

Technically, the decline has weakened the short-term picture and shifted the bias more firmly in the sellers’ favor.

The warning signs emerged late last week when…