Market News

The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, down from 133,000 in August (revised from 162K), as private-sector hiring was partially offset by another decline in government employment. The private sector added 46,000 jobs, while government payrolls fell 17,000.

The headline shows a sharp slowdown from August. Looking underneath the number, however, the picture is mixed: construction, manufacturing and health care continued to add jobs, while information, financial activities and professional and business services lost ground.

September: Where jobs were added

• Private education and health services: +20,000, including 23,000 in health care and social assistance.
• Construction: +11,000
• Leisure and hospitality: +10,000
• Manufacturing:…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

We haven’t got new major Solana’s specific catalysts in the past couple of days as macro and geopolitical developments continued to dominate the price action.

The latest rally was driven by dovish comments from Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson this week, which provided a boost to the crypto market despite the ongoing US-Iran stalemate.

Williams, the President of the New York Fed, and Jefferson, the Fed Vice Chair, are two of the three members of the so-called Fed “troika”, alongside the Fed Chair. Their comments tend to carry significant weight with markets, and this time they triggered a dovish repricing that pushed the probability of an October …

TGIF. It is US jobs day, and traders are heading into the North American session with a mixed dollar, modestly lower Treasury yields and higher US stock futures. Canada’s employment report will be released next week, leaving today’s focus squarely on the US labor market.

The September jobs report is expected to show a gain of 90,000 jobs, down from 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% for the month.

The market is pricing roughly a 21% chance of a Fed rate hike in October. A stronger jobs report, particularly if accompanied by stronger wage growth, could push those expectations higher. A softer report could reduce the urgency to tighten further.

For…

• Prior was +162K (revised to +133K)
• Two-month net revision -60K
• Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.1% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.1%
• Unrounded unemployment  vs 4.1413% prior
• Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.6% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 7.6% vs 7.7% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings 3.0% y/y vs +3.2% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +46K  vs +85K expected
• Prior private payrolls +127K
• Change in manufacturing payrolls K vs +10K expected
• Government payrolls K vs +35K prior

Fed funds pricing was at a 28% chance of a rate hike ahead of the data and USD/JPY was trading at 157.60. US 2-year yields were at 4.78% with 10s at 5.23%.

This is a dovish report and closes…

Headlines:

• US jobs report faces a higher bar as bond market tensions raise the stakes
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• Stocks rebound as bond yields cool, but NFP threatens to reset the mood
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.8% in September as energy prices surge
• ECB policymaker Rehn flags energy and AI risks as rate outlook stays uncertain
• Gold price consolidates below $4,200 as markets turn to NFP next
• Gold finds support as dovish Fed comments signal low appetite for tightening
• Silver's selloff pauses as key Fed members push back against October rate hike bets
• Bitcoin breaks out of the range as Fed's Jefferson comments reduce rate hike expectations…

It's the final countdown to the September non-farm payrolls report. 

Take a look at:

Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers

That report highlights the seasonals around this number, which could make it a volatile one. Fed pricing is down to 7.1 bps for this month, which maps to 28%. That could swing on today's report and the wage numbers in particular. Yesterday's high prices paid in the manufacturing ISM briefly got the market's attention.

Today oil is down on European reserve release talk as Trump tries to arm-twist those leaders into boosting his midterms chances. Mostly, markets are upbeat in the lead-up to the release with S&P 500 futures up 0.4%. That's largely a result of lower oil and isn't being helped by a drop in Nike…

Introduction

In September, we saw sharp and uneven moves across major currency pairs. The Mexican peso weakened while the Russian ruble strengthened. The yen gained modestly even as the U.S. dollar rose against most peers, while the Tasmanian currencies (AUD and NZD) fell. These shifts reflected the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy stance, higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, and differing central bank signals. In this article, Elev8 broker provides retail traders with market data and analytics to see more market context so they can respond effectively to changing conditions.

What happened in September

The U.S. dollar dominated the market.…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Silver has been consolidating near recent lows after Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson delivered dovish comments, suggesting that there is no urgency to raise interest rates again in October.

Their comments reinforced the view that the Fed has a limited appetite for tightening, which is also consistent with the message from September’s dot plot.

This could continue to support silver if the Fed remains more dovish than markets expect, as real yields could decline due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields.

The main focus today is on the US NFP report. Given the recent comments from Williams and Jefferson, we would likely…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was characterized by a tug-of-war between cooler inflation and a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy. The softer-than-expected PCE inflation report initially weighed on the dollar, pushed short-term Treasury yields lower, and reduced expectations for an October Fed rate hike. However, stronger GDP and employment data, combined with rising oil prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict, kept longer-term inflation and interest-rate concerns elevated. Gold faced conflicting forces, benefiting from lower rate expectations while simultaneously coming under pressure from elevated Treasury yields and ongoing inflation concerns.

What does it mean…