Market News

Throughout the month, for every lot traded by Charity October participants, the broker will donate to an educational charity project to support underprivileged young students. 

The initiative is built around a simple idea: as you start seeing new opportunities for yourself, you can help others along the way. 

Participation is free, and no donation is required. The participants' contribution will be calculated based on eligible lots traded in October.

For this project, Elev8 has partnered with JAAGO Foundation, a non-profit supporting underprivileged children and communities in Bangladesh. The project aims to open up more opportunities for young students so they…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.01%, Shanghai Composite up 0.31% Hang Seng down 2.83% ASX up 0.60%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,214.51 (0.29%) Silver at $61.550 (0.57%), Brent Oil at 102.28 (-0.04%), WTI Oil at 92.58 (-0.30%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.252, UK 10-year yield at 5.4022, Germany 10-year yield at 3.5202

●        (USD)     ISM Manufacturing PMI

        54.5 to 54.8  expected

Stock futures edged higher early Friday as investors awaited the release of September’s closely watched jobs report, which could provide clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.26%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average…

It seems that stocks are enjoying some much-needed relief today as the pressure from the bond market finally eases a little. That said, I wouldn't get too comfortable with the calmer mood just yet as the US jobs report is still to come.

10-year Treasury yields have slipped back to around 5.23% after touching 5.34% yesterday, the highest level since 2002. Meanwhile, 10-year German bund yields are down to roughly 3.43%, well off the highs earlier this week closer to 3.65%. The retreat in yields has been enough to give equities some room to recover.

The DAX is now trading up by 1.1% today while the CAC 40 is gaining 1.0%. US futures are also holding up well with S&P 500 futures around 0.5% higher as tech shares remain firm ahead of the open…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin has been consolidating since last Wednesday, but the dovish Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson comments this week provided support for the cryptocurrency despite the ongoing US-Iran stalemate.

Williams is the President of the New York Fed, while Jefferson is the Fed Vice Chair. These two are part of the so-called troika which also included the Fed Chair.

Their comments are generally the most influential ones, and they triggered a dovish repricing that took October rate hike probabilities from 70% to roughly 25% now.

Bitcoin has also extended the gains this morning following a key technical breakout. Looking ahead, the focus will…

US Markets Edge Higher Ahead of Non-Farms – S&P up 0.2%

US equity markets finished modestly higher yesterday as investors awaited today’s key US employment report. The Dow Jones edged up 0.04% to close at 50,925, while the S&P 500 gained 0.19% to finish at 7,666. The Nasdaq also rose 0.04%, ending the session at 26,871.

US Treasury yields ultimately declined following a volatile trading session. The benchmark 10-year yield initially reached its highest level since 2002 before reversing to close 4.4 basis points lower at 5.241%. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield recorded a larger decline, falling 9.6 basis points to 4.791%. Despite the retreat in yields, the US dollar strengthened against the major currencies, with the Dollar Index…

• Eurozone September preliminary CPI +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected
• Prior +3.2%
• Eurozone September preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected
• Prior +2.4%

The breakdownThe headline estimate reaffirms that inflation continues to surge higher in the euro area at the end of the third quarter. That is largely driven by energy prices, which jumped by 18.8% in September compared to the 14.3% rise in the month before.

Besides that, there were also increases in food and services inflation. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 1.4% on the year, up from 1.1% in August. Meanwhile, services inflation picked up to 3.2% in September from 3.0% in the month before. The latter is more important when looking at underlying price pressures, helping to push…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold started to consolidate above the 4,140 level after Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson delivered dovish comments suggesting no urgency in raising interest rates again in October.

This shows once again that the Fed has low appetite for tightening, which is what transpired from the September’s dot plot. This could also support gold if the Fed keeps being more dovish than market’s expectations as real yields would fall on inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields.

Today, we have the US NFP report on the agenda. Given Fed’s Williams and Fed’s Jefferson comments, we will likely need a blockbuster report, with data beating expectations across…

In his latest comments today, ECB governing council member Olli Rehn is highlighting just how uncomfortable the policy balance is becoming for the central bank. He mentioned that:

• Higher energy prices bring us closer to the ECB's adverse scenario for inflation
• ECB projections are subject to very high, pervasive uncertainty
• Rise in long-term rates will slow growth and reduce passthrough of energy shock to prices, wages
• One uncertainty is possibility of a sudden reversal in market sentiment towards AI

For some context, the ECB's September projections underscored the baseline scenario of inflation averaging 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027. And under its adverse scenario, inflation is seen rising to 3.2% next year instead.

So, Rehn's comments are…

• Eurostoxx +0.4%
• Germany DAX +0.4%
• France CAC 40 +0.4%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• Spain IBEX +0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.1%

European equities are starting the day on a slightly firmer footing, although I wouldn't read too much into the early gains just yet.

We're seeing gains across the board with German and French benchmark indices leading the way for now. And this comes as some of the pressure in the bond market eases following the sharp selloff earlier this week.

10-year Treasury yields have backed away from the high yesterday of 5.34%, hovering closer to 5.25% now. In Europe, we're also seeing 10-year German bund yields easing to 3.48% today - well off Monday's high of around 3.65%. That is offering some breathing room for stocks, although yields remain at…

Gold is continuing to tread water just below the $4,200 mark today, with buyers showing a little more life since overnight trading but still not enough to really change the broader technical picture.

The rebound from Monday's sharp selloff is still very much lacking conviction, particularly as Treasury yields remain elevated - even if coming off the boil since yesterday. That suggests the overall assessment hasn't changed all that much for the precious metal, although the near-term chart is starting to look a little more encouraging.

Looking at the hourly chart, gold has managed to climb back above its 100-hour moving average (red line) at around $4,164 currently. That comes after buyers have struggled against the key level several times…