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If you've been following markets for long enough, you will quickly come to find that inflation apparently has more than one answer.

One week, everyone is waiting for the CPI release. A few days later, the PPI report becomes the focus instead. Then, the PCE arrives and we are reminded that this is the inflation measure the Fed actually targets.

And so the question is, which one should traders care about? The short answer is all three, but for very different reasons.

Let's try to break it all down by imagining the journey of a cup of coffee.

To start, PPI looks further up the chain. It measures the changes in selling prices received by domestic producers. So if coffee beans, packaging or transportation become more expensive, PPI is what can…

Echo Base, a privately funded special situations platform that acquires, finances and advises companies across digital asset markets, today announced the formation of Echo Base Restructuring ("EBRx"), its restructuring and crisis advisory line. EBRx works with founders, principals, major shareholders and boards in the period before and after a disruptive event, when the earliest decisions, often taken with limited information, set the range of outcomes.

EBRx advises on matters including liquidity shortfalls, funding gaps, covenant and maturity problems, failed financings, counterparty defaults, suspended withdrawals, frozen or seized assets, regulatory and enforcement…

There is just one key expiry level to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for USD/JPY at the 158.00 level, with the spot price sitting less than 15 pips away from the strike.

The expiries are sizable, so the large option interest could provide a reason for price action to remain attracted to the area if the pair stays nearby.

But from a technical perspective, the 200-day moving average at 158.47 will present the more critical ceiling region for price action. That is what held back the USD/JPY advance yesterday in bringing price back below the 158.00 level.

That being said, the other and more important driver of trading sentiment today will be the US jobs report. A sufficiently strong move in Treasury yields and…

According to Visa Onchain Analytics, more than $272 billion in stablecoins are currently in circulation, with adjusted transaction volume over the trailing 12 months at roughly $10.2 trillion. Those numbers say something beyond market size: they show how actively digital assets move between users, services, and blockchain networks.

The user journey is shifting along with that scale. Receiving a digital asset is increasingly just the first step. Next comes holding it, verifying an address, sending part of it to another user, swapping one asset for another, waiting for the right rate, or checking past activity.

When each of those actions needs its own service, the hard part…

For much of the energy story since the Middle East crisis began, markets have been fixated on oil and understandably so. But right now, I would argue that diesel is starting to become one of the more important things to watch.

The global diesel market is getting tighter by the day, and we are now at the point where that squeeze is turning into a fight over emergency reserves.

Now, this simply isn't another oil story. The world can have crude barrels available but if there isn't enough refining capacity to turn those barrels into diesel where it is needed, you can still end up with a shortage of the finished fuel.

Washington is now pressing Europe to release more diesel from strategic reserves, with reports suggesting that the US has asked…

Welcome to another edition of NFP Friday. Typically, the US jobs report starts off with one question for markets. And that is how many jobs did the economy add during the month?

But this time around, I would argue the bar is a little higher than that.

Markets are heading into Friday's non-farm payrolls report with inflation concerns already running hot, and yesterday's ISM manufacturing report didn't exactly help with that. While the headline index held steady at 54.5, it was the surge in prices paid from 71.1 to 77.9 that really caught the eye.

As such, it puts a slightly different complexion ahead of the jobs report later today.

The non-farm payrolls figure is expected to rise by around 90K in September, with the unemployment rate holding…

• SEC proposes letting investment advisers and funds self-custody Bitcoin and other crypto
• Dollar hits highest since May 2025 before payrolls; Asia FX slips despite strong data
• Katayama eyes 7 trillion yen of idle funds as Kiuchi says Japan needs no excessive easing
• UBS sees three catalysts to steady Treasuries, says Fed hike pricing is too aggressive
• Reminder: India and mainland China markets shut Friday as Hong Kong reopens without Stock Connect
• Morgan Stanley: S&P 500 masks weak market as over half of US stocks fall 20% since June
• IMF waives El Salvador's Bitcoin breach: why it's not the bullish signal it looks like
• Tokyo core CPI jumps to 2.7%, fastest in 10 months, strengthening BOJ rate hike case
• Lubin-linked wallet moves $356M in ETH:…

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed a framework that would allow investment advisers and regulated funds to hold Bitcoin and other crypto assets themselves, under certain conditions, and to use state trust companies as custodians.

The proposal, announced on 1 October and reported by The Block, aims to close gaps in the infrastructure institutions need to hold digital assets directly rather than through exchange-traded funds or other intermediaries. It would apply to investment advisers and regulated funds, a group that includes asset managers and hedge funds. The plan now enters a 60-day public comment period and is not yet a final rule.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency's rules had not kept pace with a crypto market…

Tonight's payrolls are the pivot for both the dollar and Asian currencies. A print below the roughly 90,000 consensus would likely knock Treasury yields and the dollar index lower and free tech-linked currencies to reflect strong regional fundamentals, while a firm number would revive October Fed hike pricing, already backed by hawks such as Logan. Oil remains a structural drag: Brent above $100 on the Iran war and diesel shortages worsens terms of trade for energy-importing Asian economies such as Korea, Taiwan and Japan, offsetting some of the benefit from booming tech exports. The ISM prices-paid jump suggests energy and input costs are still feeding through, keeping upside inflation risk alive.

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Asia's data is booming, but its…

Kiuchi's remarks reduce the risk of government pushback against further BOJ tightening, which is likely to be read as supportive of an earlier rate hike, coming on the same day Tokyo core inflation jumped to 2.7%. That could add to upward pressure on short-dated JGB yields and offer the yen some support. Katayama's fund review is modest relative to Japan's budget, but signals fiscal discipline at a time when global bond markets are punishing perceived fiscal looseness. Energy costs from the Iran war remain the main external inflation driver for Japan, so higher oil would reinforce the case both ministers appear comfortable with.

--- Tokyo is trimming idle funds and telling the BOJ it no longer needs to keep the stimulus taps open, a…

UBS's view challenges the more hawkish end of Fed expectations, and if incoming inflation data softens as it expects, the front end of the curve stands to benefit most as hike pricing is pared back. Oil remains the key swing factor: with Brent around $100 on the Iran war, any credible progress on reopening Hormuz traffic would ease one of the main forces pushing yields higher, while fresh attacks on shipping would do the opposite. The bank's caution on the longest maturities points to continued curve steepening pressure from fiscal deficits and AI-related issuance even if shorter yields fall. Friday's payrolls and Fed speakers such as Logan, who favours 50bps or more of further hikes, are the immediate tests.

--- UBS thinks the bond market…

With India and mainland China both closed, Asian price discovery for emerging market risk narrows to Hong Kong, the offshore yuan and the rupee's non-deliverable forward market, all of which tend to be thinner and more volatile than their onshore counterparts. That matters more than usual today, as the US jobs report lands after Asia closes and could move the dollar and Treasury yields sharply. Oil is the other wildcard: India and China are among the world's biggest crude importers, so any weekend move in Brent on Iran war or diesel headlines will be absorbed by their markets only on reopening. Traders should allow for catch-up moves on Monday in India and on October 8 in China.

--- Two of Asia's largest markets are closed on Friday,…