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Wilson's framing makes the Treasury market, rather than earnings, the swing factor for US equities in the near term, which puts oil firmly in the frame: energy-driven inflation from the (ongoing, never ending?) Iran war has been a key driver of the bond volatility he highlights. A calmer bond market would favour a catch-up rally in small caps, cyclicals and the equal-weight index, while persistent yield swings point to a softer S&P 500 as the index falls toward the average stock. His preference for asset-light, quality large caps offers a defensive middle path. The call also complements Citadel's constructive Q4 view, with both houses seeing much of the damage already done beneath the surface.

- The S&P 500 looks calm, but Morgan Stanley…

• US September ISM manufacturing 54.5 vs 55.0 expected
• Canada Sept S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 53.0 prior
• US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected
• Fed’s Schmid: Rising long-term rates are starting to strain housing and commercial lending
• Fed's Jefferson: Weighing more data will allow the Fed to make a better call on rates
• Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers

Markets:

• Gold up $20 to $4176
• US 10-year yields down 5.4 bps to 5.24%
• WTI crude oil up $2.55 to $92.97
• USD leads, EUR lags
• S&P 500 up 0.3%

It was a lively pre-NFP day as the dollar was broadly stronger in part due to a hot reading on the prices-paid component of the ISM manufacturing survey. That briefly sent long-dated Treasury yields to fresh highs since…

IMF waives El Salvador's Bitcoin breach, but that's no bid for Bitcoin

The International Monetary Fund has released $139 million to El Salvador after waiving the country's breach of limits on its Bitcoin holdings. The headline sounds friendly to Bitcoin, but I think it points the other way.

According to Bloomberg, the IMF Executive Board completed the combined second and third reviews of El Salvador's $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility on 1 October. The decision made the $139 million available immediately. The board acknowledged that El Salvador missed some programme performance criteria, including those tied to its Bitcoin holdings, which grew beyond agreed limits after the first review. It granted waivers after accepting that the…

A beat across all three measures, and by half a point on the BOJ's preferred trend gauge, is likely to lift pricing for an October hike and push short-dated Japanese government bond yields higher, offering the yen some support against the dollar. The breadth of the rise, including services, matters more to the BOJ than the headline jump, since water subsidies explain only part of it. Energy is the other channel: with Brent back above $100 on the Iran war and China's fuel export halt, imported fuel costs are likely to keep feeding Japanese inflation into the national data due later this month. The slight rise in unemployment is unlikely to shift the policy debate.

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Background:

• Tokyo CPI preview: core inflation seen jumping to 2.4% as BOJ…

Lubin-linked genesis wallet moves $356M in ETH to a new address, with no sign of selling yet

A wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin has moved its entire remaining balance of about 133,298 ETH, worth roughly $356 million at the time, to a brand-new address. I checked the on-chain record myself, and so far there is no sign of the coins heading to an exchange.

The transfer took place on 1 October, after a 1 ETH test transaction to the same destination. The source address is labelled "Joseph Lubin?" by blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence. It is also tagged as a Genesis Block Address, which means it received ETH in Ethereum's original 2015 distribution. The link to Lubin is Arkham's attribution. Neither Lubin nor…

Hong Kong's stock market reopens on Friday, October 2, after closing on Thursday for National Day, but mainland China's markets remain shut for the rest of the week-long holiday and will not resume trading until Thursday, October 8.

The Hong Kong exchange trades at its usual hours on Friday, 09:30 to 12:00 and 13:00 to 16:00 local time, and again on October 5, 6 and 7. Those four sessions will run without Stock Connect, the program linking the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets. HKEX's Stock Connect calendar shows Northbound and Southbound trading suspended from October 1 to 7, as the link only operates when both markets are open, with normal operation resuming on October 8.

That leaves China-focused and dual-listed shares in Hong Kong…

Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately, analysis and implications etc. 

more to come 

Logan's call for at least 50 basis points more is among the most explicitly hawkish recent Fed views and cuts against the market's retreat from October hike pricing after softer PCE data. It could support the front end of the Treasury curve and the US dollar, particularly if Friday's payrolls come in strong. Her acknowledgement that higher term premiums may tighten conditions for the Fed offers a partial offset, suggesting long-end yields near 2002 highs could reduce the number of hikes needed. With oil back above $100 on the Iran war and diesel shortages, energy-driven inflation risk gives hawks like Logan further ammunition.

Logan thinks the Fed has barely started: one hike down, at least two to go, and last year's cuts still to be…

The threat adds another layer of risk to a diesel market already squeezed by Russia's export ban, China's fuel export halt and Middle East disruption from the Iran war. A US export ban would hit Europe hardest, given its reliance on US fuel, and would likely widen diesel cracks and the premium of European gasoil over crude. A coordinated EU release of around 120 million barrels, by contrast, could ease middle distillate prices in the near term, though it would leave Europe with thinner buffers heading into winter. For crude, the episode underlines that the tightest part of the oil market is refined products rather than barrels, keeping Brent supported above $100 while product markets stay volatile.

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Earlier:

• What is red diesel and why is…

Goldman's shift reinforces the rally at the short end of the Treasury curve, where 2-year yields posted their biggest one-day fall in more than a year on Thursday, and takes some support away from the US dollar. Oil is the main risk to the call: with Brent back above $100 on China's fuel export halt and US troop deployments, a renewed energy-driven inflation pickup could quickly revive October hike pricing. Long-end yields remain near 2002 highs, so a softer Fed path may do more to steepen the curve than to ease broader financial conditions. Friday's payrolls report is the immediate catalyst, with a strong print likely to push hike odds back up regardless of Goldman's view.

--- One soft inflation print was enough for Goldman to push its…

A flows-based bullish call from one of Wall Street's largest market makers can matter in itself, encouraging dip buying in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq if early-October weakness appears. Tech and AI-linked names are the likeliest first beneficiaries, given Rubner's argument that sentiment and leverage have been cut hardest there. The risk is that the call runs into a hawkish macro backdrop: with the Fed on a hiking path (but not too quickly), any oil-driven lift in inflation from the Iran war would push yields higher and test equity valuations regardless of positioning. The mid-October start of earnings season and the reopening of buyback windows into early November are the key dates traders will watch to see whether the flows Rubner…

A Tokyo core print at or above 2.4% would reinforce expectations of a follow-up BOJ hike and could support the yen and push short-dated Japanese government bond yields higher, while a miss would give weight to the two board members who argued against the September increase. Because Tokyo leads the national figures by about three weeks, traders tend to read it as a preview of the nationwide trend. For oil, the link runs through import costs: higher crude prices tied to Middle East tensions have been one of the forces lifting Japanese prices, so any further energy spike would add to the BOJ's inflation concern. The jobs data is unlikely to move markets unless it surprises materially, with a tight labour market already assumed.

Two weeks…