Market News

A flows-based bullish call from one of Wall Street's largest market makers can matter in itself, encouraging dip buying in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq if early-October weakness appears. Tech and AI-linked names are the likeliest first beneficiaries, given Rubner's argument that sentiment and leverage have been cut hardest there. The risk is that the call runs into a hawkish macro backdrop: with the Fed on a hiking path (but not too quickly), any oil-driven lift in inflation from the Iran war would push yields higher and test equity valuations regardless of positioning. The mid-October start of earnings season and the reopening of buyback windows into early November are the key dates traders will watch to see whether the flows Rubner…

A Tokyo core print at or above 2.4% would reinforce expectations of a follow-up BOJ hike and could support the yen and push short-dated Japanese government bond yields higher, while a miss would give weight to the two board members who argued against the September increase. Because Tokyo leads the national figures by about three weeks, traders tend to read it as a preview of the nationwide trend. For oil, the link runs through import costs: higher crude prices tied to Middle East tensions have been one of the forces lifting Japanese prices, so any further energy spike would add to the BOJ's inflation concern. The jobs data is unlikely to move markets unless it surprises materially, with a tight labour market already assumed.

Two weeks…

The survey adds little to lift the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months over the past 24 hours. Softer headline inflation expectations would ordinarily ease pressure on the RBNZ, but the late-month rise in expectations as oil climbed is the more relevant signal for traders, given fuel costs feed quickly into household price perceptions. If crude stays elevated, the combination of weaker sentiment and firmer inflation expectations leaves the RBNZ facing a less comfortable trade-off between growth and prices. For the currency, a weak NZD is itself one of the supports ANZ cites for exporters and tourism, which may limit official concern about further depreciation.

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Meanwhile, on the AUD:

• AUDUSD falls to…

BofA's framing puts oil at the centre of the gold trade: as long as the Iran war keeps crude elevated, the bank sees energy-driven inflation, rising yields and a firmer dollar outweighing gold's haven appeal. That makes oil headlines, including any further disruption to Gulf shipping, a direct bearish risk for bullion rather than a supportive one. With the Fed on a hiking path, any upside inflation surprise from energy costs would reinforce the yield pressure the bank identifies. A sustained retreat in crude, or progress toward a Middle East resolution, is the clearest trigger for the recovery BofA projects into 2027, while a break toward $3,750 would test whether ETF holders stay patient.

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Bank of America still sees $5,000 gold, but…

Cook's remarks lean hawkish and, if shared more widely on the committee, would argue against any easing and keep the door open to further rate rises, which could support short-dated Treasury yields and the US dollar. Her suggestion that the Fed may no longer simply look through supply shocks matters for oil: if energy-driven price spikes are treated as more policy-relevant, higher crude prices could feed more directly into expectations for additional tightening rather than being dismissed as transitory. For equities, her view that the AI buildout is inflationary in the near term adds a new angle to the AI trade, linking the capital spending boom to the risk of more hikes. Traders will want to see whether colleagues echo the theme before…

US stocks finished the first trading day of October with modest gains, but the closing changes hide a more active session. All four major large-cap indices traded on both sides of unchanged, giving buyers and sellers opportunities to make a play.

Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, offering a more supportive backdrop for equities. Nevertheless, the Dow and Nasdaq Composite finished barely higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also closed below their session highs. Buyers recovered from the lows. They did not run away with the upside.

The closing numbers

• Dow Industrial Average: Up 21.01 points (+0.04%) to 50,932.10.

• S&P 500: Up 14.92 points (+0.19%) to 7,666.46.

• Nasdaq Composite: Up 10.53 points (+0.04%) to 26,871.60.

• Russell 2000:…

Nike shares went into the post-earnings session near $36, down about 43% this year and roughly 80% below their November 2021 record high near $179, so positioning was already defensive before the report. The revenue guidance is the likely swing factor: a full-year sales decline may outweigh the earnings beat and inventory progress for investors waiting on evidence of a turnaround. On the charts, the 100-hour moving average near $36 is the closest reference, with the 200-hour average around $37.40 the first resistance a relief rally would need to clear and hold. Above that, the 100-day average around $41 comes into view, while a move back below $36 would leave sellers firmly in control.

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Nike found a few extra cents of profit to beat the…

Another Iranian attack on a tanker in the world's most important oil chokepoint is likely to add to the geopolitical risk premium in crude, with Brent and WTI the first markets to react. How much depends on what comes next: a single contained incident with no spill would likely see any spike fade, while follow-on strikes or any slowdown in tanker traffic would put supply security, rather than demand, back at the centre of oil pricing. Tanker freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums for Gulf voyages are also likely to come under upward pressure, which raises delivered costs for Asian importers even if physical flows continue. Traders will watch for any attribution of the attack, because a state-linked culprit would carry far greater…

The AUDUSD has continued its trend move lower, with sellers taking the price from one swing area to the next. The pair has remained below its falling 100-hour moving average since September 23 also helping the bearish bias. Buyers have had their opportunities to push higher, but they have not done enough to change the bearish technical bias.

Sellers work through the downside targets

The move lower this week started on Monday and Tuesday when the 100 hour MA was tested but found willing sellers.  The price on Tuesday peaked near that MA and the 200 day MA and also the high of a swing area between 0.70203 and 0.70269. Sellers pushed lower.

Yesterday, sellers extended below the next area between 0.69619 and 0.69778, opening the door for…

Nike reports earnings after the close today, with the stock near its lowest level since February 2014. Expectations are subdued, but the bigger question is whether CEO Elliott Hill can give investors a clearer path back to growth.

Results are scheduled for approximately 4:15 p.m. ET, followed by the conference call at 5 p.m. ET.

What is expected?

For Nike’s fiscal first quarter of 2027, analysts expect:

• Earnings per share of $0.44, compared with $0.49 a year earlier.

• Revenue of approximately $11.33–$11.35 billion, compared with $11.72 billion.

• An earnings decline of approximately 10% and a revenue decline of approximately 3%.

A beat would help, but investors will also want to know when sales stabilize, whether China is improving, and whether…

What's expected:

• Consensus estimate +910K (range +35K to +180K)
• August +162K
• July +21K
• Private consensus estimate +85K
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior
• Participation rate 61.6% prior
• Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.7%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.4 prior

September jobs so far:

• ADP employment report +90K vs +75K expected and +36K prior
• ISM services employment not yet released
• ISM manufacturing employment 52.7 vs 52.0 exp and 52.8 prior
• Challenger Job Cuts 43,281 vs 52,881 prior
• Philly employment +11.8vs +27.9 prior
• Empire employment +10.6 vs +9.3 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 196K vs 206K last month
• Revelio Labs +57K…

Collins discussed rising borrowing costs at a Richmond Fed conference in Asheville, N.C., on Thursday, according to Axios.

• Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed president: Likened the challenge of separating strong demand from supply-driven inflation to a seven-layer dip: With AI and data centers, “there’s too much beans in that dip.”
• Susan Collins, Boston Fed president: AI investment “does have broader effects, not just in particular sectors,” but it “remains to be seen” whether investment will continue at its current pace.
• Tom Barkin: “I think you’re seeing this trillion-dollar AI buildout, and I think it’s not surprising that rates go up if you’ve got a lot more demand out there.”
• Jeff Schmid: “Even on the mortgage rate side, it’s starting to…