Market News

This headline is weighing on rates. US 2-year yields are down 13.5 bps now in a big reversal from earlier.

• Worried high inflation could spill into expectations
• Sees jobless rate holding steady into end of this year
• Still expects inflation pressure to ease over longer term
• Inflation remains above target with upside risks
• September rate hike will help anchor inflation expectations
• Bond yields show market participants rethinking outlook
• Economic output and job market are broadly solid
• Weighing more data will allow Fed to make better call on rates
• US central bank 'may take more time' to decide next rate move
• Future Fed rate changes should be driven by the data
• Fed is fully committed to returning inflation to 2% target

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson says…

European stocks closed sharply lower to start October, with all five major indices declining. Germany’s DAX held just above its key 200-day moving average, giving buyers a level to lean against. The UK FTSE 100, however, could not sustain its recovery above that same technical barometer and closed below it.

The closing levels showed:

• German DAX: 24,939.36, down 259.84 points or 1.03%.

• France’s CAC 40: 7,835.32, down 129.20 points or 1.62%.

• UK FTSE 100: 10,428.26, down 177.75 points or 1.68%.

• Spain’s IBEX 35: 19,005.30, down 420.90 points or 2.17%.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: 50,237.86, down 1,134.11 points or 2.21%.

German DAX: Buyers lean against the 200-day moving average

The DAX fell to a session low of 24,831.60, just above its 200-day moving average…

Gold is marginally higher on the day, with a gain of around $9 to $4,169, but the rebound is having trouble getting above the falling 100-hour moving average near $4,180.40. That keeps the sellers more in control despite today’s modest gain.

Friday’s resistance cluster set the stage for the decline

Recall from last Friday, the price of the precious metal tested a key resistance area on the topside that included four separate technical levels: the 100-hour moving average, the 200-hour moving average, the 100-day moving average and the 50% midpoint at $4,319.75. Those levels converged near $4,319, giving sellers a clearly defined area to lean against and limit their risk.

The sellers leaned. The buyers could not push through. The price rotated…

The USDJPY and USDCHF have seen a pocket of dollar weakness, with both pairs breaking below key hourly moving averages. Those moves have tilted the short-term bias more toward the sellers, although there is still work to do to build on the downside momentum.

The USDCAD remains higher on the day, but its retreat from a new high has brought a rising trendline back into focus. Yesterday’s break below that trendline failed. Can sellers make another attempt stick?

In the video above, I take a look at the three pairs, the technical levels defining the risk, and what the price needs to do next.

USDJPY: Sellers get an opening below the hourly moving averages

The USDJPY found resistance near 158.46, where the 200-day moving average and the 50%…

• Construction spending: +0.9% MoM vs 0.0% expected. July revised to −0.1% from −0.5%.
• Annual spending rate: $2,203.1 billion.
• Year-on-year spending: −1.7%.
• January–August spending: −3.1% compared with the same period in 2025.

August components compared with revised July levels, at seasonally adjusted annual rates:

• Private construction: $1,655.3 billion vs $1,637.7 billion. Up 1.1% MoM.
• Private residential: $882.3 billion vs $872.7 billion. Up 1.1%.
• Private nonresidential: $773.0 billion vs $765.0 billion. Up 1.0%.
• Public construction: $547.8 billion vs $546.8 billion. Up 0.2%.
• Public educational construction: $113.1 billion vs $112.9 billion. Up 0.1%.
• Public highway construction: $150.6 billion vs $150.5 billion. Up 0.1%.census.gov

US construction…

• Prior reading was 54.6
• New orders 55.3 vs 53.7 prior
• Employment 52.7  vs 51.2 prior
• Prices paid 77.9 vs 72.3 expected -- highest since May
• Prior prices paid 71.1

The prices paid number is grabbing the market's reaction in the immediate aftermath of the report as it soared. US 30-year yields are at the highs of the day, up 5.2 bps to 5.69%, the high of the day. That dynamic is also weighing on equity markets.

Prices paid:

Comments in the report:

• “Better performance was driven primarily by temporary market effects, including (1) geopolitical uncertainties, (2) customers bringing forward purchases, (3) delayed raw material price increases and (4) reduced competitor capacity. However, these factors do not signal sustained recovery: Structural…

Intervention? 

It's an odd time of day for a quick dip in USD/JPY.

The memes have been hitting hard today as the US loses control of the bond market and that extends to USD/JPY.

What is strange is that there wasn't a particularly interesting level in play or pressure before this move. It's possible it was some kind of fat finger but it certainly looks like intervention.

U.S. stock movers after the open: Accenture surges 23%, while Micron's blockbuster earnings get a shrug

October 1, 2026 | U.S. stocks

The first minutes of the U.S. cash session have changed the stock-mover picture substantially. Accenture is now the standout large-cap repricing, Synopsys is extending its AI-driven rally, and Liquidia is suffering another major leg lower. Perhaps the most interesting reaction, however, is Micron: exceptional earnings have so far produced almost no gain in the stock.

The opening tape has produced some clear winners and losers

Accenture (ACN)Sep. 30: $183.37, +3.53%Oct. 1 at 09:40 ET:$225.59, +23.02%Massive earnings-driven repricing.

Liquidia (LQDA)Sep. 30: $30.26, -57.19%Oct. 1 at 09:40 ET:$25.22, -16.66%Second…

The broader U.S. stock indices are opening in positive territory, but the early gains have yet to turn into a convincing run to the upside. A higher opening gives buyers an opportunity. Whether they can build on that move depends on their ability to get above—and stay above—the next key technical levels.

In the video above, I take a look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 from a technical perspective. Each offers a slightly different view of the equity market, and understanding those differences can help traders judge where the strength—or weakness—is coming from.

• The S&P 500 tracks 500 leading U.S. companies across a wide range of industries, including technology, financials, healthcare, industrials and consumer businesses. It…

• Prior was 53.0

• Lowest since March
• Sixth straight month above 50
• New orders fall for the first time since March
• New export orders down for a fourth month
• Output still rising but at the slowest pace in six months
• Input cost inflation highest since July 2022
• Supplier delivery times longest since August 2022
• Business confidence lowest since December 2025
• Employment up for a sixth month, slowest gain since May
• Backlogs fall by the most in eight months

The headline still says growth, but the details are pour. New orders slipped into contraction, and the bulk of the 1.5-point drop in the PMI came from demand rather than supply. Tariffs and US trade friction are the main culprits, with panellists flagging client hesitancy and a fourth straight decline in…

Bitcoin buyers came in early in yesterday’s North American session and pushed the price higher. The rally took the digital currency above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, shown by the blue and green lines on the chart below, and to its highest level since September 23.

However, the break could not sustain momentum. The price quickly rotated back below both moving averages, and the upside push fizzled.

The buyers had their shot. The buyers missed.

Moving averages define the near-term bias

The two hourly moving averages remain key barometers for buyers and sellers:

• 100-hour moving average: $83,721

• 200-hour moving average: $84,013

The current price is trading just below both, giving sellers a modest near-term advantage. Staying below…

Technical indicators are designed to simplify market analysis by turning price data into signals that help traders identify trends, momentum, volatility and potential entry or exit points. The problem begins when traders use too many indicators at once. Instead of providing greater clarity, a cluttered chart can produce conflicting signals and make it harder to determine what the market is actually telling you.

The main issue is that many indicators are derived from the same price data. Adding RSI, MACD, Stochastics, and several other oscillators does not give you five independent pieces of information. In many cases, they are simply presenting different versions of the same information. This can create apparent confirmation when…