Market News

Two of the biggest oil desks on the Street landed on the same conclusion this week: the Persian Gulf has figured out how to export oil in a war zone.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf exports, including what it calls "dark exports," hit 23.3 mb/d last week. That's right back at the 2025 average after volumes doubled in September. JPMorgan's count is more conservative. Its 10-day average is 20.5 mb/d, or 89% of 2025 levels, and its note is titled "The final 11%." Most of the gap comes down to how much of the dark fleet you're willing to count. The direction is the same either way.

This recovery happened despite a lot going wrong. The Saudi East-West pipeline was hit and cut flows to Yanbu for nearly two weeks. The Houthis are still blocking…

• Prior was 197K (revised to 198K)
• Four-week moving average 200.0K vs 202.2K prior
• Continuing claims 1.701m vs 1.725m expected
• Prior continuing claims 1.719m

These numbers are at generational lows and a reminder that the risk is towards rising inflation/wages rather than unemployment.

For background, initial jobless claims measure new applications for unemployment insurance in the United States, providing a timely indication of layoffs and changes in labor market conditions. Published weekly by the Department of Labor, the report is closely watched because it can reveal shifts in employment before monthly payroll and unemployment figures become available. Claims measure applications for benefits, rather than the total number of unemployed…

he U.S. dollar is mostly higher to start the fourth quarter, with elevated Treasury yields continuing to support the greenback despite yesterday’s softer U.S. PCE inflation report.

InvestingLive’s Justin Low reports that the dollar has reached its highest level in more than three months, with the dollar index extending toward 102. The U.S. 10-year yield reached around 5.34% overnight before retreating to around 5.28% in the updated morning snapshot. Meanwhile, EURUSD has slipped below 1.1300.

For traders, the message is that softer inflation has not been enough to produce a sustained retreat in longer-term borrowing costs. Yields are easing this morning, but they remain elevated. U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher opening as…

Headlines:

• Stocks feel the pinch as 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.33%, highest since 2002
• US dollar hits three-month high as Treasury yields surge, EUR/USD cracks key support
• Oil shoots higher as the market starts to lose patience with the prolonged US-Iran stalemate
• Trump tells TIME the U.S. could resume or intensify attacks against Iran after the midterm elections
• US sees China invasion of Taiwan unlikely before 2028, but trade and market risks remain
• Switzerland September CPI +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y expected
• Eurozone manufacturing hits 52-month high as input and output prices accelerate
• UK September final manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs 52.0 preliminary
• Ethereum struggles to break out of the range as macro headwinds cap the upside. What to watch?
• US…

According to the interview with TIME, Trump initially expected the conflict to last only four to six weeks, but seven months later there is still no clear end in sight. The conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed energy prices higher and created significant economic and geopolitical consequences.

Trump continues to defend the decision to launch the war, arguing that military action was necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He points to the subsequent weakening of Iran's position as evidence that the campaign has achieved important objectives. At the same time, however, the prolonged conflict has made it increasingly difficult for the administration to find a way to end the war while…

It looks like the dollar is finding another gear today, and once again it is the bond market that is doing much of the heavy lifting.

After a strong showing in September, the dollar is now pushing to its highest level in more than three months. The dollar index itself is extending towards 102, with the move coming as we see another leg higher in Treasury yields. 10-year yields pushed up to a high of 5.34% during the session, its highest level since 2002, before easing back a little now to 5.29%.

The move in the bond market is particularly striking as it comes on the back of a softer US PCE inflation report yesterday, which briefly knocked back expectations for another Fed rate hike this month. The front-end of the curve may be more…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The idiosyncratic catalysts pushing up Zcash have been exhausted and the cryptocurrency is now at the mercy of macro and geopolitical developments. The focus is mainly on the Middle East situation.

The US and Iran remain engaged in negotiations over Iran’s recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The disagreement reportedly now centres more on the sequencing of the steps rather than the substance of the proposal.

Iran’s government spokesperson said yesterday that Foreign Minister Araghchi had presented a “US proposal” to the cabinet, although no further details were provided. Traders will therefore continue to closely monitor the headlines…

US-based employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August and 20% from a year earlier. This marks the lowest total for the month since 2022, when 29,989 job cuts were recorded. Tech continues to lead layoffs, posting 10,799 cuts in September - up 77% from August.

But through the first nine months of 2026, total announced layoffs are down 39% compared with the same period last year. On the surface, that seems to be fairly reassuring.

But when you look at hiring, that is where things get more interesting with this month's Challenger report. Employers announced plans to hire 90,787 workers in September, down 23% from a year ago and marking the weakest September total since 2011.

Perhaps more importantly, Challenger noted…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil weakened into the US session close yesterday and extended the losses during the Asian session. There were no bearish catalysts, so it might just have been a technical move. In fact, this morning prices shot higher and erased all the losses.

The market might be losing patience since we haven’t got any new development on the US-Iran side. Iran's government spokesperson yesterday said that the Foreign Minister Araghchi presented to the cabinet "a US proposal", although no further details were given.

Trump told reporters that he must decide whether to “blow them up or make a deal” with Iran, adding that the conflict would end…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Ethereum has been stuck in a range for over a week now as negative macro conditions capped further gains.

The Ethereum Foundation announced on September 28 that the Glamsterdam upgrade's first public test on Sepolia is scheduled for October 6. Glamsterdam is important for Ethereum because it is designed to increase the network’s capacity and scalability. The increased capacity could ultimately lead to additional network usage and demand for Ethereum blockspace that translates into greater economic value.

On the macro side, the US and Iran are still engaged in negotiations to amend Iran’s recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz…

• France September final manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs 50.3 prelim
• Prior 51.1

The breakdownThe final revision higher still marks a decline in French manufacturing activity in September compared to the month before. There was a further slowdown as as new orders continued to decrease, purchasing activity was reduced and price pressures accelerated.

Looking at the details, factory production growth was sustained in September - marking back-to-back expansions for the first time since the opening two months of the year. Meanwhile, new order inflows contracted for a fifth successive month amid customer hesitancy. That said, the pace of decline slowed and was the softest over the current downturn period.

Besides that, price pressures intensified in…

Surprise, surprise. Not. The bond market is turning up the heat on stocks again.

After a short breather earlier in the day, 10-year Treasury yields have surged to 5.33% now - touching their highest level since 2007. And the pressure is starting to show more clearly across equities.

S&P 500 futures are now down 0.1%, having been up as much as 0.5% earlier in the session. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures are still holding onto a 0.4% gain but that is well off the earlier 1.1% advance. Over in Europe, the selling is more pronounced with Germany's DAX now down 1.3% and France's CAC 40 now down 1.6%.

But for me, the fading gains in US futures is the more telling part.

Equities had initially been able to look past the rise in yields, helped in part by…