Market News

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was dominated by falling oil prices, a weaker dollar, and continued pressure on technology stocks. Hopes of diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran caused crude oil to fall sharply, easing inflation concerns and contributing to lower Treasury yields. The weaker dollar supported gold and major currency pairs, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 struggled because of continued selling in AI and semiconductor stocks.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Tuesday’s Asian session is expected to be driven primarily by the RBA’s interest-rate decision, with markets widely anticipating a 25-basis-point increase to 4.85%. However, because…

• Switzerland October CPI +1.5% vs +1.3% y/y expected
• Prior +1.0%
• Switzerland October core CPI +0.5% y/y
• Prior +0.5%

Swiss headline annual inflation picks up at the start of the third quarter, rising to 1.5% from 1.0% previously. Much like elsewhere around the region, higher energy prices are the main culprit in continuing to feed through to consumer prices. As such, the inflation numbers may look to be heating up again at first glance.

But in looking to core annual inflation, that remains unchanged at just 0.5%. That tells us that the broader inflation picture isn't quite as alarming as the headline reading might suggest.

And for the SNB, that is the most crucial takeaway here. The central bank has been arguing for months that higher energy…

There is just one key expiry level to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 level, which sits less than 10 pips away from the spot price. The expiries could help anchor price action around the figure level into the cut, should there be no major headlines to jolt the pair before we get to the US midterms later.

The pair has been struggling to hold any pushes above 1.1200 in recent days, so the expiries will add another layer for buyers to chew through in order to establish a more convincing upside push.

But all else being equal, we could see price action be more contained closer to the figure level with the expiries acting more as a magnet for the session ahead.

As for overall trading…

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Trust Remains at the Heart of the Trading…

And round and round we go. We started the week with renewed optimism that the US and Iran might finally be inching towards a diplomatic breakthrough. That led to oil prices tumbling on Monday as hopes of a potential deal gathered momentum. But fast forward to today, and we're pretty much back where we started.

Anyone got a case of déjà vu? These have been the same sort of headlines that we have been dealing with for almost seven months now.

The latest comments from a senior Iranian official to Reuters:

• Tehran's conditions must be met if the US wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened, with nuclear talks only possible afterwards
• Iran is prepared to respond forcefully to US strikes, both in the region and beyond
• Mediators are working hard to narrow…

In case you missed it, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.85% today in a less straightforward 6-3 vote. That takes the cash rate to the highest level in 18 years, with the central bank trying not to pre-commit to further tightening at this stage. So far, Bullock's tone in her press conference has been more neutral and even in the latest remarks here.

She says that the rate hike today might not be the last one but in trying to make that judgment, "it is not as obvious" as compared to before. Adding that she doesn't know how high rates will need to go and that it is up to the market to interpret their messaging.

Bullock continues to reaffirm that the central bank will stay on a data-dependent path in saying that "it is probably good…

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• More on US strikes on Qeshm: officials confirm attack as Trump plays down war risk
• Following the money: the playbook behind the $6.3bn Binance heist and a suspected $106 million theft
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/pboc-sets-usd-cny-central-rate-at-6-7150-vs-estimate-at-6-6489"…

Earlier:

Bullock’s comments sent a mixed signal for the Australian dollar and the front end of the curve. Her warning that inflation is largely locked in for the next year, and that unemployment must rise further, underlines the RBA’s resolve. Her account of the dissent, though, suggests a significant minority is already wary of overtightening. That balance supports the view that further hikes remain possible but are far from assured, limiting the scope for a strong rebound in the AUD after its post-decision dip. For Australian equities, the explicit acceptance of weaker growth and higher unemployment adds to pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, retailers and property, which the RBA itself identified as under strain. 

Bullock’s…

Another week and it's another big tech name that is finding out that even beating earnings estimates isn't good enough for Wall Street these days. Apple is that next big name to be struck down and the timing couldn't be worse for an already battered tech sector in markets.

Apple reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.48 billion and earnings per share of $2.10, beating expectations of $113.39 billion and $1.99 respectively. Now, that sounds pretty decent no?

Well, if only the market reaction shared that view. Apple shares instead are down 2% in after-hours trading as investors turned their attention to the less flattering details.

As always, it is all about the guidance. Of note, Apple expects gross margins to decline to around 45-46%…

South Korea's financial regulator wants local crypto exchanges to keep more customer assets in cold wallets, offline storage that hackers cannot reach over the internet. The push follows last week's $6.3 billion theft from Binance, which came entirely from the exchange's internet-connected hot wallets. 

• Following the money: the playbook behind the $6.3bn Binance heist and a suspected $106 million theft

The Financial Services Commission held an emergency meeting with major exchanges on 2 November. It reviewed how exchanges control access to their systems and approve withdrawals, and urged them to raise the share of assets held offline. It did not set a new legal ratio.

The principle behind the request is simple: a hacker can only steal what…

Apple and Palantir beat earnings. Wall Street is still hard to impress

Apple's profit-margin outlook and Palantir's demanding growth expectations have left investors cautious despite strong reported numbers. Our simplified Earnings Mood Score stands at 4/10, highlighting why the market's reaction matters as much as the earnings themselves.

Apple (AAPL) and Palantir (PLTR) delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly results on November 2, yet both stocks moved lower after hours. Neither decline exceeded the options market's expected move, but the reactions reinforce a broader message from this earnings season: investors remain selective, and impressive numbers alone are not always enough.

That doesn't mean Wall Street is in panic mode. It does…

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, its fifth increase of 2026 and the highest level since 2008. The decision was far from unanimous, though: six board members voted to hike and three preferred to hold at 4.60%, a split that tempers the hawkish signal.

The board said inflation remains elevated and broadly based, and that staff forecasts have been revised materially higher. Inflation is now expected to stay above 3% over the coming year and not to reach the top of the 2% to 3% target band until late 2027, about three quarters later than previously forecast. Higher fuel and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are part of the story, but the RBA also judged domestic…