Market News

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Reports of a temporary easing in U.S.-Iran tensions sparked a sharp decline in crude oil prices, reducing inflation concerns and improving overall market sentiment. Asian equity markets traded mixed, with Chinese stocks supported by semiconductor gains and Japan’s Nikkei edging higher, while the Singapore dollar strengthened after the Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly tightened policy. With no major economic releases during the session, investors remained focused on the busy week ahead, including policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, as well as key inflation and growth data from several major…

There's going to be quite a lot for markets to digest in the week ahead. US-Iran developments are already making waves to start the new week but keep in mind that there will also be major central bank decisions and month-end trading to deal with. Adding to the mix in the days to come will be big tech earnings in the US.

After the setback from Alphabet (Google) last week, it's free game now even though US futures may be pointing up to start the week.

The big question posed by the market reaction last week was not if AI can translate to revenue. We already know that for sure and the hyperscalers have proven that. It is now a question of if the revenue from AI can be enough to cover the continued massive capital expenditure outlay.

In the case…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 July 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session overnight was driven almost entirely by geopolitics and interest-rate expectations rather than scheduled economic data. Concerns over Middle East tensions and the potential for disruptions to global oil supplies initially lifted crude prices, while persistently high Treasury yields reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. The stronger yield environment supported the U.S. dollar but weighed on gold and technology stocks, leaving the Nasdaq as the weakest major U.S. index.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets begin the week facing a combination of central bank…

• Uncertainty remains high
• Impact of energy shock will only be seen in the coming months
• Intensity and duration of the shock are crucial
• ECB's goal is to ensure medium term inflation remains stable around 2%
• The decision will be made based on the data and projections we will receive in the coming weeks

ECB's Žigman stressed that uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high and warned that the full effect of the recent energy price shock will only become apparent over the coming months.

He highlighted that intensity and duration of the energy shock will be key factors in determining the impact on the Eurozone inflation outlook. He reiterated that the ECB's goal is to ensure that inflation returns sustainably to its 2% medium-term…

US Stocks Mixed Ahead of Weekend – Nasdaq down 0.6%

US equity markets finished mixed on Friday as investors weighed ongoing developments in the Middle East ahead of what was expected to be a significant weekend for geopolitical headlines. While the broader market was relatively subdued, investors remained cautious amid elevated uncertainty, with Treasury yields easing modestly from recent highs and the US dollar continuing to trade near its strongest levels of the year.

The Dow Jones outperformed, gaining 0.46% to close at 51,947 as buying in industrial and defensive sectors offset weakness elsewhere. The broader S&P 500 edged just 0.05% higher to finish at 7,411, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.64% to 24,975 as investors…

Gold price analysis today: Futures retreat from $4,119 as a new decision zone forms

Gold futures began the new trading week with a strong advance to approximately $4,119, but buyers failed to hold the higher prices. The subsequent reversal has returned August gold futures to the lower edge of an important support area, giving sellers a modest short-term advantage.

However, gold is already approaching support around $4,084-$4,087, making this a less attractive location for chasing the decline. The cleaner directional opportunities may emerge below $4,084 or above $4,108.

Key takeaway: Gold’s opening rally has turned into a developing bearish reversal, but sellers still need acceptance below $4,084 to confirm further downside. A sustained…

US-Iran developments will continue to hog the spotlight to start the new week. However, it won't be the only key factor in play for markets in the days ahead. As we look to wrap up July trading, the central bank bonanza returns to town this week.

In terms of policy action though, there should not be anything all too interesting before the summer break.

The Fed will feature first with the FOMC meeting coming up on 29 July. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged while continuing to weigh Middle East developments in seeing how they might look to tweak monetary policy in the final three meetings of the year next.

After the latest US-Iran kerfuffle in recent weeks, we've seen oil prices shoot higher again and that has…

There's just one to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. The expiries are keeping thereabouts with the 100-hour moving average and so may provide some area of interest for price action to circle around in the session ahead. However, the broader market mood remains the key thing to take note of to start the new week.

The dollar is down on renewed optimsim surrounding US-Iran developments, after both sides paused military strikes over the weekend. It remains to be seen if this will help to bridge the path to negotiations next but markets are hoping that it will take a turn for the better.

As such, we're seeing oil prices fall alongside bond yields and that is pushing the…

Hopes for a ceasefire deal is boosting market optimism to start the new week. And we're seeing oil prices open with a gap down while equities are pushing up alongside precious metals and bond yields and the US dollar falls. Does all that sound familiar?

Well, it's not like we haven't seen it before.

That was the case in mid-to-late June before it led to the first ceasefire deal or memorandum of understanding as one would call it at the time. Yet, that amounted to nothing and here we are again circling back to that after one month.

Despite the market optimism we're seeing today, there's always that cautious saying that sometimes it is the hope that kills you.

Traders and investors are seeking relief, and that is evident in early action in…

• CXMT scores massive IPO, becomes the most-valuable company in mainland China
• Japan June services PPI 3.2% vs 3.3% prior
• Iran says it will halt strikes so long as US pause continues
• China June industrial profit YTD +18.7% vs +18.8% prior
• Xi tells Lula China ready to strengthen strategic coordination with Brazil
• Nvidia is in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a massive data center project

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down $4.03 to $85.29
• S&P 500 futures up 52 points to 7499
• Gold up $36 to $4090
• US 10-year yields down 4.2 bps to 4.63%
• EUR leads, USD lags

The US and Iran continued to hold fire on Sunday and that led to a drop in oil prices but note the unease as WTI fell as low as $83.10 before rebounding more than $2.…