Market News

The USDCHF moved lower during the European session after Swiss inflation came in stronger than expected. October CPI rose 0.2% versus an unchanged reading expected, while annual inflation increased to 1.5% from 1.0%, above the 1.3% forecast. The firmer data supported the CHF and gave USDCHF sellers another push to the downside.

However, the sellers ran into a key technical target. The falling price reached the rising 100 day moving average near 0.81563, just above a swing area between 0.81383 and 0.81513. Buyers leaned against that support and stalled the fall.

Sellers had their shot. Buyers are pushing back.

The move lower followed failures near the 200 hour moving average on Friday and again yesterday. Those failures gave sellers the…

• Prior factory orders +0.1%
• Factory orders excluding transportation +0.5% vs +0.3% prior
• Durable goods orders revisions +1.9% vs +1.8% prelim
• Durable goods excluding transportation revisions +0.5% vs +0.5% prelim
• Durable goods excluding defense +2.3% vs +2.2% prelim
• Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft +0.6% vs +0.5% prelim

This is a decent report and shows some momentum in factories but it's overshadowed by a jump in the JOLTS number released at the same time. US yields are moving higher in the aftermath of both and USD/JPY is at the highs of the day at 158.37.

For background, the US Census Bureau’s factory orders report, formally the full report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, is released monthly at 10 am ET,…

• Prior month 7.079M revised to 7.19M

Details of the JOLTs Job openings: 

• Job openings: 7.523 million vs 7.190 million, up 333,000.  August revised up by 111,000 to 7.2 million.

• Job openings rate: 4.5%.

• Hires: 5.402 million vs 5.271 million, up 131,000.

• Total separations: 5.319 million vs 5.175 million, up 144,000.

• Quits: 3.4 million vs 3.0 million in August, revised down by 22,000.

• Layoffs and discharges: 1.6 million vs 1.8 million in August, revised up by 127,000.

• Quits rate: 2.1%. Layoffs and discharges rate: 1.0%.

• Private-sector openings: 6.644 million vs 6.408 million, up 236,000.

• Government openings: 880,000 vs 782,000, up 98,000.

US job openings were 7.5 million in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was above August’s…

The broader US stock indices are moving higher today after both the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 approached their key 200-day moving averages yesterday. Buyers leaned against those technical barometers and stalled the declines. Today, they are getting a bounce.

For the Nasdaq Composite, yesterday’s low reached 25,145.95, just above its rising 200-day moving average near 25,073. The Nasdaq 100 came even closer. Its low of 27,967.44 was only about 15 points above its 200-day moving average, currently at 27,952.83.

Today, the Nasdaq Composite is up 191 points, or 0.76%, while the Nasdaq 100 is up 202 points, or 0.73%. Support has held so far, keeping the buyers in play. The next question is whether they can build on that bounce and push…

Sellers could not deliver the downside break

The bitcoin sellers had their opportunity to take more control. On Friday, Monday and again today, the price traded to (and even below today) its 100 day moving average, currently at $76,654 (purple MA line). Those breaks opened the door for a move toward the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the July low at $76,052 and the highlighted swing area extending down toward $74,925.

Those were the targets to get to — and through — if the sellers were going to extend the downside.

They missed.

The price could not sustain a break below the 38.2% retracement, and the swing area that has attracted buyers and sellers since August held. The sellers got below the 100 day MA today briefly, but they could not…

There are more headlines crossing suggesting positive developments in Iran-US talks, with Al-Arabiya now carrying similar headlines to the earlier ones that weighed on oil.

In contrast, here is Iran security chief Mohsen Rezaei just now:

America's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened.

Those are the same seven conditions they have been talking about forever and were mostly in the 14-point MOU agreed in June.

The problem is analyzing deal prospects is the calendar. It's in the Trump admin's interest to leak positive Iran headlines this week in order to drive down the price of oil.…

Geopolitical events can have a significant impact on financial markets, especially when they threaten global energy supplies, trade routes or economic stability. Markets constantly assess the potential economic consequences, assign probabilities to different outcomes and adjust asset prices accordingly.

This is why financial markets can rally sharply on the first signs of de-escalation, even when a conflict remains unresolved. Markets may move just based on expectations of a less negative scenario rathen than pricing in peace, for example. 

One of the most important concepts is that markets are forward-looking. Traders are constantly trying to anticipate what might happen over the next 6–12 months rather than caring about current…

The balance of power is up for grabs as US voters head to the polls for the midterm elections. For traders, however, the election outcome is an after-the-close event. The North American session will first have to navigate rising Treasury yields, mixed stock futures, US economic data and a Middle East situation that continues to swing between diplomatic optimism and military escalation.

The US dollar is mixed in the morning snapshot. The greenback is higher against the Australian dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen and euro, but lower against the New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar and, marginally, the British pound.

Meanwhile, crude oil is recovering some ground after Monday’s sharp decline, while gold and silver are lower. The message across…

Prediction markets are pointing to a Democratic sweep of Congress in today's US midterm elections, with the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate rising sharply in recent weeks.

As of around 8 am ET on Tuesday, November 3, the latest prices from Kalshi and Polymarket show:

• House control: Democrats 94–95%, Republicans 6–7%

• Senate control: Democrats 78%, Republicans 23–24%

The Senate race has seen the biggest shift. Kalshi had Democratic control priced at 74% at midday Monday, up from 63% in early October and 44% in March.

Here are the latest approximate Kalshi prices for some of the key Senate races:

Kansas is the one that would be the big shocker. This is Mitch McConnell's old seat, which he last won in 2020 by a margin of 57.76% to…

Trump spoke on Fox News and Israel came up. The comments appear to be putting some downward pressure on oil, with the sense that there are some lines being drawn between the US and Israel. The market is extending that to the idea that the US will make a deal with Iran. I'm skeptical that's what Trump is really implying here but the price action in oil this week is dramatic.

• Aid gets cut off at year-end
• They don't need it
• If the ydid need it, I would say to keep going
• Reached agreement with Netanyahu

WTI was last down $2.42 to $94.05.

I tend to thing that the oil market is heavily manipulated this year and that insider trading is rampant. That said, I think everyone in markets would love to stop chasing Iran war headlines. 

At the same time as…

Headlines:

• The S&P 500 stays on the back foot amid geopolitical uncertainty as US midterm elections loom. What's next?
• Solana remains under pressure as markets weigh US-Iran talks, Fed risks and US midterm elections
• Crude oil trims losses as US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island while CIA Director calls for continued economic pressure
• Three warning signs the tech selloff isn't over as Wall Street sentiment hangs by a thread
• Ethereum consolidates as focus shifts to US midterm elections while US-Iran negotiations continue
• European stock market open: Stocks tumble across the board as risk sentiment sours
• Gold trims gains after overnight strikes on Iran as the focus turns to the US midterm elections
• Swiss inflation surprises higher in October but core…

On November 24, Alex Piliavsky joins the panel "Your Broker's Growth Is Elsewhere: Ahead of 2027" on the Craft Stage at Old Billingsgate. He plans to argue that it isn't elsewhere at all. Piliavsky began his career at Seperia and went on to hold senior marketing roles, including several C-level positions, at healthtech and fintech companies before co-founding Alchemy Avenue, a lifecycle marketing agency based in Nicosia. Here's a preview of what he'll tell the room.

The panel says growth is elsewhere. You think it's already inside the broker?

Yes. Brokers have already paid for it. Every registration, every verified account, every trader who deposited once and …