Market News

The major U.S. stock indices are trading higher, with investors encouraged by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, sharply lower oil prices, and hopes that the recent flare-up in the Middle East may be giving way to renewed diplomacy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leads the gains, up 1.23%, while the NASDAQ is higher by roughly 242 points, or 0.95%, after being up more than 300 points in premarket trading. The S&P 500 is up 0.81%.

One of the biggest catalysts today has been the sharp decline in crude oil. WTI crude is down more than $5.40 a barrel, extending its retreat as traders unwind the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices over the past two weeks. Reports suggesting a pause in U.S. military…

The USDCHF moved higher last week, testing a topside trendline connecting the series of lower highs dating back to July 1 on the hourly chart (see red numbered circles on the chart below). The pair stalled against that trendline on both Thursday and Friday, leaving traders with a key question heading into the new week: Would buyers finally force a breakout, or would sellers regain control?

The answer initially came during the Asian session, when the pair gapped lower and fell back below the 0.8170 level. As highlighted in last week's videos, the 0.8170–0.8214 zone represents an important resistance area from the 2025 daily chart (see the daily chart below - top yellow area). Selers moving below that level tilted the bias lower. 

The decline…

• Prior month -4.5% revised to -4.0%
• Advanced Durable goods orders for June 03% versus 2.5% estimate
• Durable goods ex transportation 0.6% vs 0 8% estimate. Prior month 1.8%
• Durable goods ex defense 0.3% versus -4.3% last month. Prior month -4.3%
• Nondefense capital ex air 0.9% versus 0.8%. Prior month +1.9%

Details of shipment, inventories:

• Manufactured durable goods shipments rose $2.4 billion (+0.7%) in June to $330.7 billion, following a 1.1% increase in May. Positive.
• Computers and electronic products led shipment gains, rising $0.8 billion (+2.4%) to $34.7 billion, marking the ninth consecutive monthly increase.
• Unfilled orders increased $9.3 billion (+0.6%) to $1.590 trillion, after a 0.7% gain in May.
• Transportation equipment led the…

The USD is mostly lower as yields retreat as oil retreats, as stocks don't retreat (they rise) as the war retreats.   In the video above I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the trading day in North America. What are the key levels in play and why (I show you too)?  What is the bias, the risks for that bias and the targets on where you are going.   Be aware. Be prepared. 

The biggest development over the weekend was the pause in the U.S. bombing campaign against Iran, ending nearly two weeks of escalating military action and creating an opportunity for renewed diplomacy. President Trump halted additional strikes after military advisers concluded the campaign had largely achieved its objectives while warning that further…

Headlines:

• Market update today and what may be interesting to trade
• Oil prices fall as expectations for de-escalation strengthen after the US halted strikes on Iran
• A case of US-Iran déjà vu for markets?
• Big tech earnings in focus in Wall Street this week
• ECB policymaker Žigman says September decision will be based on data and projections
• ECB policymaker Kazimir says at least one more rate hike will be needed
• Japan must exit excessively tight fiscal policy, says prime minister Takaichi
• Germany business sentiment rises further and by more than expected in July - Ifo
• UK retailers report smallest downturn in sales in six months during July - CBI

Markets:

• WTI crude down 6.7% to $83.30, Brent crude down 7.5% to $89.45
• European equities gain; S&P 500…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar came back under pressure after some positive developments on the US-Iran front. In fact, the US halted its strikes after 13 days of attacks and Iran said it will maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remains on pause.

This has led to some optimism as traders took this latest development as an early sign of a potential de-escalation and triggered a selloff in oil prices.

The greenback will likely remain under pressure amid the de-escalation expectations, but traders will keep a close eye on the headlines as things can re-escalate quickly with just a single Trump’s post.

Looking ahead, we have the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday…

Market update today: Nasdaq rebounds, oil retreats and Ethereum targets $2,150

TLDR: Risk appetite improved on July 27 as equity markets rebounded and oil retreated. Nasdaq cash has important support at 27,900-28,000, copper remains constructive above 6.30, natural gas risks falling toward 2.50, and Ethereum is targeting 2,140-2,150 after defending 1,963.

The market began the week with a stronger tone in equities and renewed pressure on energy prices as concerns surrounding the Middle East eased. However, several markets remain close to important decision levels rather than confirmed breakouts.

The figures below refer to different instruments, including cash indices, continuous futures, September futures contracts, spot cryptocurrencies and…

• UK July retail sales balance -26
• Prior -54
• UK expected retail sales for August -26
• Prior -45

The headline retail sales balance for July is the highest since January while the expected sales for the month ahead in August also climbs to its highest since March. Besides that, the volume of retail sales for this time of the year was reported to be below normal by the smallest amont since February. So, that's some added good news despite the still negative readings above.

Do keep in mind though that the CBI retail sales data tends to be a bit more downbeat as compared to the BRC data and/or the ONS typically. So, there's that to account for too when viewing the readings. You can even see that with the ONS retail sales data for June that was…

Funded trading has stopped being a niche. Searches for "prop firm" have risen more than 50-fold since 2020, and category bellwether FTMO reported over 2.3 million trading accounts in 2024. Growth of that speed attracts two things: capital and complaints — rules that change mid-challenge, withdrawals that take six weeks, "profit splits" quietly eroded by fees that were never on the pricing page. The model works; the trust around it too often does not. That gap is the entire thesis behind Dolvero.

The trust problem prop trading never fixed 

Strip away the branding and most prop firms sell the same product: a simulated evaluation, a set of risk rules, and a share of profits. The differences that matter live in the fine print, and in what…

• Need to shift to responsible, proactive fiscal policy
• Will ensure trust in our finances through transparent communication with markets
• When we say responsible fiscal policy, we mean we will seek to achieve both economic growth and fiscal discipline
• We will seek to increase tax revenue by expanding GDP, will not resort to reckless fiscal spending
• Japan must exit excessively tight fiscal policy, boost domestic investment and put economy on a growth path
• Will submit bill for lowering 8% sales tax on food once debate among lawmakers reach an agreement

The hearing today ended with no done deal for Takaichi in wanting to reduce the consumption tax on food from 8% to 1%. So, that is an issue that will follow her into the autumn as the 158-day…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold opened the week higher following some positive developments over the weekend. The US halted its strikes after 13 days of attacks and Iran said it will maintain a ceasefire so long as the US remains on pause.

This has led to some optimism as traders took this latest development as an early sign of a potential de-escalation. It goes without saying that the price action will continue to be driven by US-Iran headlines.

Gold will likely remain supported amid the de-escalation expectations, but traders will keep a close eye on the headlines as things can re-escalate quickly with just a single Trump’s post.

Looking ahead, we have the FOMC rate…