Market News

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite led the rebound with a 0.83% gain, and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.68%. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also finished higher, while the Dow fell 197 points. Chip stocks helped lead the move, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom all gaining more than 2%.

The S&P 500’s close told only part of the story. Decliners outnumbered advancers 318 to 167 in the index, and only nine of the Dow’s 30 stocks finished higher. Nasdaq breadth was positive, with 1,630 advancers against 1,566 decliners. Buyers made more progress in tech, but participation was still fairly narrow.

U.S. closing levels

• Dow Industrial Average −197.00 points (−0.38%) to 51,792.19
• S&P 500 +27.52 points (+0.36%) to 7,568.92
• Nasdaq Composite…

The miss on every major measure is likely to weigh on the New Zealand dollar and trim pricing for a December rate hike. The kiwi was already near a cycle low against the Australian dollar after last week’s RBNZ hold, and the gap with a more hawkish RBA now looks set to widen. The weak jobs figures argue against tightening, but the RBNZ’s hawks have focused on core inflation and fuel costs. A labour market miss alone may not settle the debate, so inflation expectations surveys later this month carry extra weight. Front-end swap rates are the market to watch for how far hike bets are pared.

--- Banks called the peak in New Zealand unemployment, but the labour market went the other way, and the RBNZ’s December hike now looks a harder sell.

• JOLTs Job openings 7.523M vs 7.100M estimate
• US September factory orders +1.8% vs +1.2% expected
• Trump on Israel: The aid gets cut off at year-end
• Never tell me the odds: Prediction markets see Democrats taking control of House and Senate
• BOC's Macklem: There could be a need to raise the policy rate further
• ECB’s Nagel says a December rate hike is very likely to be necessary
• Two reasons why the US could attack Iran as soon as tomorrow
• If you squint, the odds are improving slightly for Republican Senate control

Markets:

• Gold down $19 to $3928
• US 10-year yields up 7.2 bps to 4.97%
• S&P 500 up 0.4%
• USD leads, JPY lags
• WTI crude oil up 48-cents to $96.93

The session started with a report about the US and Iran closing in on an agreement and that sent oil…

AMD reports third-quarter earnings after the close today, with the conference call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Analysts expect strong growth on both the top and bottom lines.

• Adjusted EPS: $1.95 expected vs. $1.20 a year ago, up 62.5%.

• Revenue: $13.10 billion expected vs. $9.246 billion a year ago, up 41.7%.

The bar is high heading into the release. On the call, watch what management says about demand for its Instinct AI accelerators and EPYC server processors, and how that demand translates into fourth-quarter revenue and margins.

The stock is up 127.6% this year. How far is it from the high?

AMD closed 2025 at $214.16. At the pre-earnings current price of $487.40, the stock is up $273.24, or 127.6%, year to date. The high for the year was set…

Midterm election day continues in the United States without too much drama. All the talk of false flags and martial law on election day hasn't taken place and the polling disruptions have been minimal and certainly not widespread.

Here’s the schedule for when the polls close across the US. States that span two time zones close in stages, so the early calls in Indiana and Kentucky will only reflect partial results until the rest of each state closes an hour later.

• 6:00 pm: Indiana, Kentucky (eastern portions)
• 7:00 pm: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, most of Florida and New Hampshire
• 7:30 pm: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
• 8:00 pm: 21 states plus DC
• 9:00 pm: Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and more
• 10:00 pm: Nevada,…

The latest prediction-market prices show another modest shift toward Republicans in Senate control, while House control is largely unchanged. The latter part makes me think the movement is variance in a relatively thin market rather than a signal. In any case, the numbers are worth watching.

There is all kinds of analysis out there about early voting turnout and patterns but it's almost impossible to sift out the signal from the noise.

House control has been highly likely to be Democrat throughout the cycle and that remains the case, at about 93% on Kalshi. The Senate is much less of a certain thing as it depends on a handful of states with their own dynamics at work.

At the high-water mark this morning, the implied odds of Democrats…

Reports surrounding Iran are putting the choice between diplomacy and renewed military action back in focus.

The New York Times, citing sources, reports that Israel has shared intelligence with Washington asserting that Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries. The assessment has reportedly alarmed some American officials, while others remain deeply skeptical.

U.S. officials divided over Israel’s warning

Some American officials view the intelligence as part of a pressure campaign by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to persuade the Trump administration to resume major combat operations against Iran.

Others believe the threat warrants serious attention, given recent warnings about Iranian preparations to…

The ECB’s Nagel commented on inflation risks and the outlook for interest rates.

• A rate hike in December is very likely to be necessary.
• Inflationary pressures higher than expected in September. Approaching adverse scenario.
• We can and must prevent energy price spike causing broad-based inflation.

Analysis

Nagel is leaning clearly toward a December hike. The key is his concern that the energy price spike could spill over into prices elsewhere in the economy. With inflation pressures already running hotter than expected in September, he sees a strong case for acting in December. For traders, the question now is how much support that view has across the Governing Council.

If history is any indication, it won't be the elephants or donkeys that win the election tonight, it will be the bulls. 

Here is a chart showing the return for the S&P 500 in the six months after election day.

That's a remarkable streak with the worst-ever period a +3.3%, or nearly 7% annualized. In contrast there have been some huge gains at various points.

The recent selloff in stock markets has re-based the market to a somewhat better spot. The fear and greed index is also in a spot that's a great one for the bulls.

Similarly, the AAII sentiment survey has bearishness at 41.4% against a 31.5% historical average.

What I fear is that I've seen way too much of these post-midterms numbers and it feels like everyone is already positioned for it.…

The USDCAD is pushing higher in the North American session, after sellers stalled the fall near a key downside target over the last three or so trading days. That support gave buyers a level to lean against. The challenge now is to get above—and stay above—the technical levels standing in the way of a larger recovery.

Support holds. Buyers get their opportunity.

Looking at the hourly chart, the swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3963 has been an important barometer going back to August. The numbered red circles on the chart above highlight the repeated reactions around that area. Adding to its importance is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the August low to the October high at 1.39497.

The sellers had their shot at getting below that…

As London/European traders head home, the major European stock indices are closing lower. The UK FTSE 100 led the declines with a fall of 1.14%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB finished little changed. Germany, France and Spain ended between those extremes, giving sellers the advantage across the major markets.

The closing levels showed:

• German DAX: 25,864.63, down 116.47 points or 0.45%.

• France CAC: 8,020.32, down 27.38 points or 0.34%.

• UK FTSE 100: 10,638.43, down 122.91 points or 1.14%.

• Spain IBEX: 18,807.20, down 150.60 points or 0.79%.

• Italy FTSE MIB: 49,941.82, down 6.13 points or 0.01%.

European yields move higher

European benchmark 10-year yields moved higher across the board. France posted the largest increase at 5.7 basis points at 4.956% as it…

From Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem:

• There could be a need to raise the policy rate further
• Will proceed carefully given uncertainties
• Decisions will be taken one meeting at a time
• Outlook for inflation has deteriorated
• Hike needed to reduce risk elevated energy prices become generalized inflation
• Less scope for monetary accommodation
• Cost pass-through expected to increase over the next year
• Growth outlook has improved modestly despite US trade actions
• Growth likely to slow in Q4 as new US tariffs weigh
• CPI seen rising to about 3.5% by year-end
• Inflation to stay at or above 3% through much of 2027
• Indicators continue to point to some excess supply
• Uncertainty still elevated on Middle East, Canada-US trade

We heard most of this after the Bank of…