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• CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected
• Prior +0.6%
• Core CPI +0.3% y/y
• Prior +0.3%

Swiss headline annual inflation holds steady at 0.6% in May, with the monthly estimate showing a 0.2% increase in prices compared to April. The slight increase on the month was largely driven by rising housing rentals and higher prices in the hotel sector, alongside higher petrol, car rental and car sharing prices.

As for the core estimate, there was an increase of 0.1% on the month but the annual reading remains the same as in April at 0.3%.

This indicates that while there is some increase in price pressures in the Swiss economy from higher energy prices, it isn't enough to really change the inflation outlook all too much for now.

Given time, we can expect a broadening…

• AI infrastructure spend on track to rival world's largest economies, Goldman says
• ICYMI - Kuwait targets 70% oil output recovery within weeks of Hormuz reopening
• RBA governor faces Senate grilling as CBA sees rates on hold after three straight hikes
• Australian April Exports leap higher at +7.2% m/m (vs. -2.7% prior)
• ANZ commodity index rises on tight supply, but NZD gains clip export returns
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8203 (vs. estimate at 6.7770)
• The Bitcoin puke continues. Back near $62K
• Trump told aides he would end Iran ceasefire if Tehran kills US troops, WSJ cite officials
• Trump official says US food supply, safety, not in danger from 'fully contained' screwworm
• Oil update, price a little lower. New Israel-Lebanon…
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Australian April 2026 trade data, gives a trade balance of 1.791bn AUD surplus

• expected -1.61bn, prior -1.84bn

I'll have more to come on this separately. In brief exports or iron ore, coal and LPG strong.

Imports of capital goods fell away while those fuel surged.

ANZ's world commodity price index rose 0.7% in May, led by aluminium prices up 49.1% y/y after Persian Gulf production fell 35% due to Middle East conflict damage.

Summary: Source: ANZ Commodity Price Index, May 2026, published June 4

• The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% m/m in May to 410.0, up 1.3% y/y, with all commodity groups posting incremental gains
• Aluminium prices rose 1.8% m/m and are up 49.1% y/y after a large Persian Gulf smelter was damaged in late March; regional production is down 35% from pre-conflict levels, with raw material imports also blocked
• Wool prices surged 14.0% m/m and 75.3% y/y, reaching their highest level since October 2011, driven by strong demand and tight supply
• Beef and lamb prices are stabilising near…
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Trump and his officials have undermined their own credibility time and time again on so many issues, so just a heads up here.

• Rollins says additional USDA personnel deployed to South Texas
• Urges livestock producers vigilance
• Screworm isbeing fully contained
• Not a harm to US food supply or safety

ABC news in the US:

• The House adopted a resolution to rein in President Donald Trump's Iran war powers for the first time
• vote of 215-208
• the resolution is symbolic in nature

• May ISM services index 54.5 vs 53.8 expected
• US May ADP employment data +122K vs +117K expected
• Iran foreign minister: Contact with the US has not been severed but no progress made
• Iran targeted a US military ship in the Gulf of Oman - report
• Fed's Beige Book continues to see slight-to-moderate US growth
• Geopolitical news: China, Iran, NATO, and chip shortage
• US EIA weekly crude oil inventories -7974K vs -4007K expected
• Netanyahu: Lebanon has been taken over by Hezbollah
• Fed's Williams: I'm not that worried about persistent impacts on inflation so far
• US factory orders for April 4.8% versus 4.6% estimate
• May US S&P Global services PMI 50.7 vs 50.9 prelim
• Canada Q1 labour productivity falls 0.5%

Markets:

• Gold down $41 to $4444
• US 10-yuear yields up 3.4…
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Trump spouting his usual inane drivel:

• Have been hitting Iran pretty hard
• Iran negotiations going well
• Iran pretty close to signing, in theory
• Iran will agree to no nuclear weapon if they sign
• We could go another two, three weeks
• Iran agreed to us going in and digging up enriched uranium and then they didn't agree

It feels like we're at a tipping point in this conflict. Either both sides agree to some kind of text shortly or we're into an escalation spiral.

CNN is also out with a report saying that monetary compensation is a main sticking point. Iran wants some form of monetary compensation to be released immediately after signing the deal. The US is worried that it will lose leverage by releasing funds.

Crude oil futures settled at $96.02, gaining $2.26, or 2.41%, as buyers remained firmly in control throughout the session. Prices traded in a wide range, reaching a high of $97.00 and a low of $93.45, but the overall trend remained higher as bullish momentum continued to build.

The technical foundation for today's rally was established yesterday when crude oil found willing buyers near its 100-hour moving average before rebounding sharply and reclaiming its 200-hour moving average. Since moving back above that longer-term barometer, the price has remained comfortably supported, signaling that buyers have regained the near-term advantage.

Today's advance also carried crude above the May 26 corrective high at $94.71, an important technical…

• The two sides are studying the texts that were exchanged
• If Israel attacks Beirut, we would respond decisively
• Our contacts with the US have not been cut off but not progress has been made.

Early this week, oil prices rose on a report saying that Iran had cut off negotiations. That doesn't appear to be the case but oil is up 10% this week as there is no end in sight to the blockades. The latest comments about 'no progress' has helped to lift oil prices in the past few minutes.

Recent headline news has been full of different geopolitical headlines:

• Two rockets have been launched from southern Lebanon toward Israel.
• Rubio says it's impossible to sign any agreement with Iran that does not include highly enriched uranium.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges that relations with China are more stable. Will see if China commits to larger Boeing purchases.
• Comments that Hezbollah leaders have a backed down from condition of Israeli which role as a prerequisite for accepting a cease-fire
• Iranian source said that the Iran's gratuitous threats are over and that any aggression will be met with regrettable response.
• Rubio told Congress that the US is waiting for Iran's final sign off on negotiations surrounding Tehran's…
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