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• Agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages
• The main obstacle relates to the mechanism for disposing of part of the frozen Iranian funds
• Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement
• Proposal to create a special fund for depositing frozen Iranian funds under discussion

According to an informed source cited by Al Arabiya on X, talks on the release of frozen Iranian funds are now in their final stages. The source indicated that the remaining dispute concerns the mechanism through which a portion of those assets would be made available to Tehran. The report adds that former US President Trump has informed mediators that he opposes releasing funds to Iran before a formal…

  DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.41

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 99.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

Potential Direction:…

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.65%, Shanghai Composite down 0.43% Hang Seng down 1.49% ASX down 1.33%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,488.00 (0.47%) Silver at $73.575 (-0.16%), Brent Oil at $96.98 (-0.85%), WTI Oil at $95.32 (-0.73%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.485, UK 10-year yield at 4.9380, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0367

• (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change  122K  to 118K   expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Thursday, mirroring overnight losses on Wall Street as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher and renewed concerns over inflation and energy costs.

Iran reportedly struck Kuwait International Airport early Wednesday, a…

A ceasefire framework was reportedly agreed upon earlier today here. But as has been the case in the past, it doesn't seem like it will be one to last. The latest communique from Israel is that they will continue fighting in southern Lebanon. And it won't be the first time that Israel contradicts with what the US is trying to narrate. From earlier this week: Israel PM contradicts Trump, will continue operating against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon

As a reminder, the broader framework agreement between the US and Iran also hinges on this ceasefire. It is one of the four key terms that needs to hold in order for both sides to advance negotiations. As mentioned before here, the US saying that a ceasefire will happen may not mean anything…

• Prior 39.7

More to come..

Stocks Hit as Middle East Tensions Heat Up – Dow down 1.2%

Global markets adopted a more defensive tone overnight as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on investor sentiment. Fresh strikes from both sides of the conflict reinforced concerns that a negotiated peace agreement remains some way off, prompting a move away from risk assets and supporting traditional safe-haven flows into the US dollar.

US equity markets closed sharply lower, with the Dow Jones falling 1.21% to 50,687, while the S&P 500 declined 0.74% to 7,553 and the Nasdaq lost 0.89% to finish at 26,853. The declines reflected growing uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical outlook and concerns that prolonged disruptions in the region could have broader…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 June 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets reacted to a stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI (54.5 vs. 53.8), showing the service sector accelerated in May while facing higher input prices, which kept Fed rate-cut hopes in check and supported the dollar and Treasury yields. Simultaneously, crude oil jumped over 1% to $95–97/barrel as Middle East tensions escalated with Iran launching ballistic missiles and the U.S. conducting strikes, raising supply-risk premiums.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Australia’s trade balance data, speeches from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials, and China’s foreign exchange reserves release, as these could influence the AUD,…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been mostly rangebound for the past months with bouts of weakness on positive US-Iran headlines, and strength on negative developments. This week, the greenback has been supported by renewed tensions in the Middle East as US and Iran exchanged fire once again, with Iran even attacking US bases in the Gulf.

The most important thing is the fact that the negotiating stalemate continues to extend, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is moving further and further away compared to previous expectations.

The signal is that nobody wants to restart the war, which is good, but the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until there’s a deal. Trump looks in no hurry whatsoever with the stock market trading…

• Prior 42.1

More to come..

• CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected
• Prior +0.6%
• Core CPI +0.3% y/y
• Prior +0.3%

Swiss headline annual inflation holds steady at 0.6% in May, with the monthly estimate showing a 0.2% increase in prices compared to April. The slight increase on the month was largely driven by rising housing rentals and higher prices in the hotel sector, alongside higher petrol, car rental and car sharing prices.

As for the core estimate, there was an increase of 0.1% on the month but the annual reading remains the same as in April at 0.3%.

This indicates that while there is some increase in price pressures in the Swiss economy from higher energy prices, it isn't enough to really change the inflation outlook all too much for now.

Given time, we can expect a broadening…

• AI infrastructure spend on track to rival world's largest economies, Goldman says
• ICYMI - Kuwait targets 70% oil output recovery within weeks of Hormuz reopening
• RBA governor faces Senate grilling as CBA sees rates on hold after three straight hikes
• Australian April Exports leap higher at +7.2% m/m (vs. -2.7% prior)
• ANZ commodity index rises on tight supply, but NZD gains clip export returns
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8203 (vs. estimate at 6.7770)
• The Bitcoin puke continues. Back near $62K
• Trump told aides he would end Iran ceasefire if Tehran kills US troops, WSJ cite officials
• Trump official says US food supply, safety, not in danger from 'fully contained' screwworm
• Oil update, price a little lower. New Israel-Lebanon…
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Australian April 2026 trade data, gives a trade balance of 1.791bn AUD surplus

• expected -1.61bn, prior -1.84bn

I'll have more to come on this separately. In brief exports or iron ore, coal and LPG strong.

Imports of capital goods fell away while those fuel surged.