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For oil, the key detail is that Iran has explicitly tied the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to sanctions relief, the end of the US naval blockade and the release of frozen funds. That makes any supply normalisation dependent on a broad political deal rather than a ceasefire alone. The early dip in crude shows traders are leaning toward diplomacy and away from escalation, but the gap between the two sides limits how much risk premium can come out. The next 36 hours of feedback through Qatar is the near-term catalyst: a constructive response could pressure prices further, while a breakdown, or Israeli action without US backing, would likely send them sharply higher. Iran’s threats against US facilities in Europe add a tail risk beyond…

The steady drift lower in the kiwi since the release suggests traders are pricing out some of the chance of a December hike rather than reacting to a one-off headline. The fall in two-year swaps supports that reading. With the RBA still leaning hawkish, the widening policy gap leaves NZD/AUD vulnerable to further weakness. The election is the next risk: a Labour-led win would bring the prospect of a dual mandate, which markets would likely read as tilting the RBNZ toward easier policy over time. Inflation expectations surveys later this month are the next test of whether the RBNZ’s hawks can still make their case.

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Earlier:

• NZ Q3 Unemployment rate 5.7% (expected 5.5%, prior 5.6%)

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New Zealand’s jobs data missed on every measure, handing…

The reaction is likely to spill into Asian trade, where regional equities tend to follow US futures in the absence of a local catalyst. The dollar and Treasuries are worth watching for signs of whether markets see a Democratic Congress as reducing fiscal stimulus expectations, which would tend to support bonds. Oil could be sensitive to any shift in expectations for Iran policy, with congressional constraints on military action potentially easing the geopolitical risk premium. Volatility measures may stay elevated until the balance of power in both chambers is confirmed.

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Earlier:

• The very early results in Kentucky show a massive swing towards Democrats

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Futures are trading the early midterm returns before the votes are counted, betting…

It's no longer early as US votes roll in.

There is a highly statistically significant number of districts reporting now and some of them reporting completely. The numbers are showing a 10-35 point swing towards Democrats. If even the bottom of that holds, it's a huge swing towards Democrats.

For illustration, betting odds now have Democrats winning the Texas Governorship and Senate seat, with Talarico beating Paxton at 95%. In the closely-watched early numbers in KY-06 and IN-05 the numbers are unmistakable and show Democrats upsetting Republicans in both. Florida hasn't been as much of a landslide but it has shown a shift to Democrats of around 10 points from 2024.

Another huge upset brewing is in South Carolina, where Lindsay Graham's…

The modest early gains suggest the measures are steadying sentiment rather than sparking a rebound, consistent with the scheme’s role as a backstop. The benefit is likely to be greatest for large, cash-rich companies with high dividend yields, such as state-owned banks and energy firms, which can borrow cheaply to buy back shares. The tool does little directly for the tech and AI names behind October’s sell-off, so Hong Kong-listed tech remains exposed to AI earnings concerns. For the Australian dollar and iron ore, stabilising Chinese equities offer marginal support, but property and consumption data remain the bigger drivers.

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Beijing is not buying stocks itself, but it is making it very cheap for companies and their owners to do so,…

The US dollar is selling off as the election results roll in and they show a total repudation of Republican policies.

Fox News is talking about the Iran war as a disaster at the ballot box and in terms of affordability, which was clearly on the ballot. Tariffs aren't far behind. 

Still, it's tough to price in a reversal in Iran or on tariffs with Trump in office for another two years. What is driving markets and could swing is data centers and AI. Democrats took an anti-AI stance or at least something slower than the full-throttle roll out now. In Texas and Ohio in particular, data centers became a huge issue and it looks like the pro-data center candidates will lose the Governorship. 

Moreover, tech companies dove into bed with Trump ahead…

The data adds to the picture of a Chinese economy still growing but struggling with weak pricing power, which helps explain why authorities are leaning on targeted support such as this week’s expanded buyback lending. Falling selling prices alongside rising costs point to margin pressure for listed service companies, which may limit any equity bounce from the support measures. Firms specifically cited oil among rising input costs, a sign that higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict are filtering into China’s economy even as companies cannot pass them on. For the Australian dollar and commodities, the slightly firmer manufacturing output is a modest offset, but the softer services reading gives little reason to expect a…

I highlighted KY-06 as an early district to watch as a barometer of today's vote and now some real results are crossing and betting markets are moving.

In Anderson County, the numbers show the Republican Alvarado leading by 19 percentage points. That's good, right? No, it's not because in the prior three House elections, the Republican won that county +48, +54 and +54. So that's around a 35-points swing towards the Democrat candidate with 49% of votes counted.

In Montgomery County on the opposite side of the district, 43% of votes are counted and the patter is similar. It shows Alvarado up 16 points but that compares to +53 in the prior election, +54 in 2022 and +43 in 2020.

In Jessamine County, with 27% of the vote, Dumbo leads +0.9% and…

Weak Indian buying removes an important source of physical support for gold, leaving prices more reliant on central bank purchases and fund inflows. Lower imports would ease pressure on India’s trade deficit and offer modest support to the rupee, though the reported rise in unofficial inflows means official import data may understate actual demand. The Diwali and wedding season is the near-term test: a muted festival response would confirm that current prices have moved beyond what Indian households will pay. For the wider gold market, it reinforces a pattern of strong official demand alongside a retreat by price-sensitive consumers.

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Earlier:

• Central bank gold buying jumps 42% in Q3 as high prices hit jewellery demand, WGC says

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The…

Yesterday the PNoC made moves to slow the yuan appreciation:

• China’s PBOC lifts FX reserve ratio to 6%: what it means for the yuan, AUD

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The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on…

The direct financial hit to Tesla is likely small, but the case adds to regulatory and reputational risk around Full Self-Driving, a product central to the company’s valuation story. A cease-and-desist order or fines in a fast-growing market would be a setback. Refund claims would be a bigger issue if they spread to other countries selling China-built cars. The dispute also highlights how much Tesla’s international software revenue depends on certification regimes it does not control, which matters as it pushes for approval in Europe. Investors will watch whether the regulator acts quickly and whether similar complaints emerge elsewhere.

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Tesla’s South Korean boom was built on China-made cars, and a consumer group says the company sold…

Trump’s remarks could take some heat out of crude, as they reduce the near-term chance of a fresh US-led escalation that markets had begun to price after Netanyahu’s hints. Any relief is likely to be limited, because oil’s risk premium rests on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks, the US blockade of Iranian ports and Monday’s limited US strikes keep supply risk live. The bigger swing factor for oil is whether the Qatari-mediated talks produce a Hormuz deal, which would ease shipping risk far more than any single comment from Washington. A divergence between Trump and Netanyahu also leaves open the risk of Israeli action without full US backing, which would likely push prices sharply higher.

If Trump is planning strikes he is doing…