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There are a few key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1250 level, with the strike currently keeping within 30 pips of the spot price. Amid the US midterm election results, we are seeing the dollar soften across the board and that has allowed EUR/USD to come up for some air above the 1.1200 mark.

So, that opens up a bit of room for buyers to work with but there is still some key resistance from the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from August to October at 1.1254. As such, the expiries above will add another layer to the resistance point in making it tougher for buyers to try and break away to the upside.

If anything, the expiries will play a small part…

US Tech Stocks Rebound Ahead of Mid-Term Election Results – Nasdaq Gains 0.83%

US equity markets finished a mixed trading session yesterday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the US mid-term election results, with technology stocks recovering some of their recent losses. The Nasdaq led the gains, climbing 0.83% to close at 25,372, while the broader S&P 500 advanced 0.36% to finish at 7,568. The Dow Jones moved in the opposite direction, declining 0.38% to close at 51,786. The moves represented something of a reversal of the previous session’s performance, with technology stocks attracting renewed buying interest despite continued uncertainty surrounding the political outlook in Washington.

US Treasury yields moved higher…

As we look to the session ahead, it seems that Wall Street has finally decided to pick itself up off the floor. But after the beating earlier today, I wouldn't be rushing to vindicate this bounce and label it as a comeback just yet.

US futures are continuing to trim losses with S&P 500 futures now down just 0.3% and Nasdaq futures lower by 0.4%. That's quite the turnaround from earlier in the day when Nasdaq futures were down by over 2% at one point.

The initial selloff came as investors digested the US midterm election results, with the Democratic sweep raising concerns over tougher scrutiny of AI infrastructure spending and data centre development. As such, that puts Wall Street in a bit of an awkward debate right now.

In the past couple…

Well, well, well. Who would've thought that starting a war might not be the greatest way to win over voters? That especially when ordinary Americans are the ones feeling the pinch and getting hit where it hurts most, that being their wallets. And now, it looks like Trump is the one paying the political price for his own decisions.

The US midterm election results are delivering a rather profound reality check for Trump, with Democrats riding a blue wave that sees them already take over control of the Senate and closing in on the House. The victories are particularly striking in traditional Republican strongholds, with Democrats flipping Senate seats in Texas, South Carolina, and Ohio.

If you're unfamiliar with the political signals, here is…

The PBOC’s moves draw a clear line under how fast it will let the yuan strengthen, which may cap further gains against the dollar and the trade-weighted basket in the near term. A softer yuan could weigh modestly on regional currencies that track it, including the Australian dollar and Korean won, at a time when risk appetite is already fragile because of the US midterms and the Gulf. The step eases pressure on Chinese exporters, which supports the broader effort to stabilise growth and equities alongside this week’s buyback lending measures. The central bank has signalled it has more tools available, so traders may hesitate to bet aggressively on renewed yuan strength.

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Beijing has decided the yuan has risen far enough for now, and it…

• China’s yuan slides to two-week low as PBOC moves to slow its rally
• Iran’s IRGC says four tankers destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, two vessels detained
• Trump allies are pointing to the Iran war as the reason for the election disaster
• US futures slide as Democrats lead midterm count, AI data centre fears hit tech
• Nikkei drops 3% as Democratic midterm gains hit AI and chip stocks
• Update: Iran says Hormuz stays shut until demands met as US deal remains far off
• China services PMI slows to 50.8 in October as price cuts meet rising costs
• Sell tech, sell USD and other signals from the massive blue wave that's unfolding
• China buyback loan applications top 200bn yuan as PBOC steps up stock support
• It's no longer early, this election is looking like a…

The sell-off shows US political risk being priced directly into the AI supply chain, with Japan’s chip equipment, memory and cable makers treated as proxies for US data centre spending. The narrow breadth suggests a targeted rotation out of AI exposure rather than a broad flight from Japanese equities, which may limit wider damage if the US cash session stabilises. Other AI-heavy Asian markets, notably South Korea and Taiwan, are exposed to the same theme. A softer Nikkei could also weigh on sentiment in the yen and Japanese government bonds if risk aversion broadens. Confirmation of the final balance of power in Congress is the key catalyst for whether the move extends.

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• Sell tech, sell USD and other signals from the massive blue wave…

The claim cuts directly against the early dip in crude, shifting attention from diplomacy and the US midterms back to physical supply risk in the Gulf. Mining is a more serious threat to shipping than isolated attacks, because it puts every vessel in an area at risk and is slow to clear. That would push up tanker freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums, and could prompt more operators to avoid the region. If confirmed, the incident is likely to add a renewed risk premium to Brent and support energy stocks, while weighing on broader risk sentiment already under pressure from the midterm results. It also complicates the Qatari-mediated talks, raising the chance of a wider confrontation involving the US.

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Earlier:

• Update: Iran says…

Nasdaq futures underperforming the S&P 500 points to a sector story, not just a broad political discount: the market is singling out AI infrastructure as the area most exposed to a shift in Washington. That puts chipmakers, hyperscalers, data centre developers and power and cable suppliers in focus at the cash open. State-level results may matter as much as Congress for these names, given proposed construction bans in key data centre states. The fiscal angle adds a second layer, as renewed debt ceiling brinkmanship could lift volatility and weigh on the dollar if markets price a more fractious 2027. Treasuries may find support as a haven if risk aversion broadens.

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The midterm count has turned data centres into a market-moving political…

The joke tonight is that Trump went to Iran for regime change and he got it, only in the USA.

The numbers so far are ghastly for Republicans in a huge blue wave, including multiple major upsets and a possible Senate majority so large it will be nearly impossible to reverse for 4-6 years.

There is still plenty of counting to do but the blame game has already started and the loudest voices are pointing to a singular target: Iran. If you tune into Fox News, that's what they're talking about. Yes, the "Iran can't get nuclear weapons" talking points continue but it's widely seen as a misstep.

The WSJ is now floating the same thing with "people close to President Trump" blaming the Iran war.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this

PBOC inject 257.5 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase operation

• 621 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase mature
• 151 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase mature
• net withdrawal was 514.5 billion yuan.