Market News

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, its fifth increase of 2026 and the highest level since 2008. The decision was far from unanimous, though: six board members voted to hike and three preferred to hold at 4.60%, a split that tempers the hawkish signal.

The board said inflation remains elevated and broadly based, and that staff forecasts have been revised materially higher. Inflation is now expected to stay above 3% over the coming year and not to reach the top of the 2% to 3% target band until late 2027, about three quarters later than previously forecast. Higher fuel and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict are part of the story, but the RBA also judged domestic…

For the Australian dollar, the hike delivers little that was not already priced. Markets had assigned an 85% chance to the move, and around one and a half increases by mid-2027 were priced before the meeting. The three-member dissent and the absence of an explicit tightening bias argue against a sustained AUD rally, and leave room for a modest fade if Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference leans cautious. The front end of the curve is likely to stay supported by the higher inflation forecasts, keeping a further hike in play but not locked in. In equities, the RBA’s own assessment that higher rates and the housing downturn are weighing on banks, consumer discretionary and real estate stocks points to continued pressure on those…

Apple and Palantir beat earnings. Wall Street is still hard to impress

Apple's profit-margin outlook and Palantir's demanding growth expectations have left investors cautious despite strong reported numbers. Our simplified Earnings Mood Score stands at 4/10, highlighting why the market's reaction matters as much as the earnings themselves.

Apple (AAPL) and Palantir (PLTR) delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly results on November 2, yet both stocks moved lower after hours. Neither decline exceeded the options market's expected move, but the reactions reinforce a broader message from this earnings season: investors remain selective, and impressive numbers alone are not always enough.

That doesn't mean Wall Street is in panic mode. It does…

Gray’s comments reinforce a theme running through this week’s news flow: the AI buildout is increasingly being financed by issuing shares, not just from cash flow and debt. For equity markets, more issuance from major tech companies means a heavier supply of new stock and potential dilution for existing holders. That can weigh on prices around deals, as Oracle’s discounted $10 billion sale shows. Coming from the head of one of the largest investors in data centers, the remarks also signal confidence that AI demand is durable enough to justify the capital. That is supportive for infrastructure, power and chip suppliers, even if the funding burden falls on the spenders. The key question for investors is whether new equity is priced at a…

The flip in earnings leadership supports a broadening of the US equity market away from megacap tech. That favours equal-weight and non-tech exposure over the concentrated index leaders. BlackRock’s emphasis on credit markets as a gauge of how much more AI investment can be financed puts spreads on hyperscaler and AI-linked debt in focus as a leading indicator for tech equities. The pairing of a Treasury rally with the tech selloff also suggests bonds can still cushion portfolios when AI sentiment sours. In emerging markets, the preference for AI supply bottlenecks points toward Asian chipmakers. Friday’s US jobs report is the near-term macro test: stronger wage growth would feed core services inflation and complicate the rally in…

Earlier:

• China’s PBOC lifts FX reserve ratio to 6%: what it means for the yuan, AUD

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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

Injected 621 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase operations, @1.25%

• 541 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase and 412 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase matured
• net withdrawal of 332 billion yuan

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Two crypto thefts in less than a week show the same playbook. Stolen crypto moves along a predictable path, and the path is shaped by one fear above all others: being frozen. Knowing that path helps explain how much stolen money can be recovered, how much cannot, and why some of it may eventually reach the market.

The big one is Binance. On 29 October, an attacker moved about $6.36 billion out of the exchange's hot wallets across ten blockchains, most of it in roughly 20 minutes, according to blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs. A hot wallet is an internet-connected wallet an exchange uses to process withdrawals. The FBI has attributed the attack to TraderTraitor, a North Korean hacking group, and it is the largest crypto theft on record.

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Confirmation of the Qeshm strike, and of weeks of unannounced US attacks, directly challenges the deal optimism that pushed crude nearly 4% lower on Monday. The more significant risk for oil is the report that Gulf states were told to prepare for a short, intense US operation shortly after the midterms. That puts a clear event window on the calendar, just as Trump publicly rules out new strikes and credits falling oil prices to fading war fears. The result is a two-way market: crude is exposed to a sharp rebound if a broader operation materialises, while continued restraint and progress through mediators would support Monday’s lower levels. Iran’s threat to retaliate within and beyond the Middle East keeps tanker traffic through the…

The narrow ranges suggest the most likely outcome is already largely priced in, so the bigger equity moves would come from a surprise rather than the expected result. The bond market may be the more telling channel. JPMorgan links Democratic control of finances to lower deficit spending and softer long-end yields, while a Republican sweep would keep deficits elevated and yields higher. For tech, the desk plays down the risk of AI regulation under a Democratic Congress, given the presidential veto, but flags potential selling within the AI theme. For oil, a Republican sweep is seen as potentially giving Trump more room to press on with the Iran campaign, linking the vote directly to the crude risk premium.

JPMorgan’s trading desk expects…

With a hike close to fully priced, the Australian dollar may struggle to rally much on the decision itself, and a sell-the-fact dip is possible if the statement leans toward a pause. Guidance is the swing factor for the currency. A signal that more tightening is possible, in line with ANZ’s view, would support the AUD and push front-end yields higher. A message closer to AMP’s hike-and-hold call would likely cap gains. The AUD, trading near 70 US cents, also faces strong outside drivers, with the US midterm elections and Iran tensions setting the broader risk mood. With the Federal Reserve also on a hiking path, rate differentials offer less of a tailwind than the RBA move alone might suggest.

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Earlier:

• Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

The move signals that Beijing is uncomfortable with the pace of the yuan’s recent strength. That gives USD/CNY and USD/CNH a floor near current levels rather than reversing the trend outright. Its direct liquidity effect is modest, so traders are likely to treat it as a warning shot, with the daily fixing the main tool to watch for follow-through. The signal reaches beyond China: a PBOC leaning against appreciation tends to temper gains in other Asian currencies that trade alongside the yuan, such as the Korean won and Taiwan dollar. It can also weigh at the margin on the Australian dollar, which often trades as a China proxy. The timing matters too, with the US dollar already softer on Iran diplomacy hopes. If the dollar weakens…