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Monday’s near 4% drop in crude priced in a diplomatic opening that the subsequent news flow does little to support. That leaves room for some of the decline to retrace if the standoff persists. The terms on the table show how large the stakes are for supply: Iran’s plan links reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a US waiver on Iranian oil sales to an end of the US blockade of its ports, so a deal would release a significant flow of barrels. That makes the market asymmetric. Genuine progress could push prices sharply lower, but stalled talks, reported US strikes and advice in Washington to keep up economic pressure argue for a geopolitical risk premium staying in place. Any confirmation of US military action, or a firm Iranian response, is…

The move signals that Beijing is uncomfortable with the pace of the yuan’s recent strength. That gives USD/CNY and USD/CNH a floor near current levels rather than reversing the trend outright. Its direct liquidity effect is modest, so traders are likely to treat it as a warning shot, with the daily fixing the main tool to watch for follow-through. The signal reaches beyond China: a PBOC leaning against appreciation tends to temper gains in other Asian currencies that trade alongside the yuan, such as the Korean won and Taiwan dollar. It can also weigh at the margin on the Australian dollar, which often trades as a China proxy. The timing matters too, with the US dollar already softer on Iran diplomacy hopes. If the dollar weakens…

The margin guidance is the figure most likely to set the tone for Apple shares at Tuesday’s open, as it shows component inflation eating into profitability just as the tariff refund tailwind fades. The warning that memory prices will keep rising is a supportive signal for memory chipmakers’ pricing power. It is a cautionary one for other hardware makers with less scope to pass on costs. The revenue guidance points to solid holiday demand, which may cushion the margin disappointment. The $33 billion jump in purchase obligations suggests Apple is locking in supply at higher prices rather than risking shortages.

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• Apple beats Q4 forecasts on iPhone and Mac as revenue tops $114 billion

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Apple is heading into the holidays with solid demand but…

For oil, the advice points to a prolonged standoff rather than a resolution. That keeps Iranian supply constrained with no near-term prospect of a deal returning barrels to the market. The “no war” element in principle limits the tail risk of a full-scale conflict that could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, today’s reports of blasts on Qeshm Island and claims of limited US strikes show that low-level military friction is continuing. Ratcliffe’s view that economic pain could trigger internal unrest adds a further, harder-to-price risk, since instability inside Iran could itself threaten production and exports. The net effect is likely to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude rather than build or remove…

For oil, any credible progress toward ending the war would raise the prospect of eventual sanctions relief on Russian energy, weighing on the risk premium in crude. Traders are likely to wait for concrete outcomes before pricing that in, given how early the process is. European assets are more directly exposed. Signs of progress would tend to support the euro and European equities, and ease pressure on regional gas prices. The Brussels track on security guarantees and Europe’s future security framework points to continued defense commitments, which would limit any downside for European defense stocks even if a ceasefire comes into view. Reconstruction funding talks are an early, longer-term signal for European construction, infrastructure…

The letter offers a high-profile counterweight to the capex anxiety that has compressed hyperscaler valuations this year, though readers should note Pershing holds Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Its two-way framing is the tradeable part: either revenue beats consensus, or spending gets cut, and both outcomes imply higher free cash flow than analysts currently model. That makes the case broadly supportive for the hyperscalers. For chip and hardware suppliers, which have far outperformed their customers this year, the capex-cut contingency is the risk to watch. The sharp distinction drawn between cash-rich hyperscalers and debt-reliant neoclouds also reinforces pressure on neocloud equity and credit.

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Earlier:

• WSJ: Anthropic IPO investors push…

The push for a lower valuation shows how quickly last week’s (and Monday's!) tech selloff has fed into the AI funding pipeline. Anthropic’s listing is effectively becoming a referendum on investor appetite for AI exposure. A well-received debut would likely revive the queue of companies waiting to list and could steady sentiment toward AI-linked megacaps. A weak one would reinforce concerns about overexposure. The computing commitments disclosed in the filing also matter beyond the IPO, because they point to sustained long-term demand for data center capacity and chips, a supportive signal for cloud providers and semiconductor suppliers despite the recent rout.

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Last week’s tech rout has big investors talking Anthropic’s IPO valuation…

For markets, the main question is whether Washington’s fiscal path continues or stalls. A Republican hold of both chambers would keep further tax cuts and higher defense spending on the agenda, which bears on the deficit outlook, Treasury supply and defense stocks. A Democratic win in either chamber would likely bring legislative gridlock on that agenda, a shift toward cost-of-living measures covering healthcare, housing and energy, and a heavier load of congressional investigations, adding headline risk. Possible legal challenges over how the vote is administered could also extend uncertainty beyond election night, a risk for volatility in equities and the dollar if results are contested.

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• US election: The key races that could tip…

The note offers support for investors weighing whether to cut equity exposure after last week’s tech selloff, arguing that slowing earnings growth alone has rarely ended a bull market. The key risk is the exception Goldman itself identifies: cycles cut short by external shocks, including aggressive rate hikes in 2022. With the Federal Reserve on a hiking path, that is the scenario traders will watch most closely. A more hawkish rate outlook would challenge the stay-invested case more directly than slower profit growth would. In sector terms, the note favors large technology platforms with AI-driven advertising tools and pricing power over traditional media agencies and smaller platforms.

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Goldman Sachs expects US earnings growth to slow…

RBA preview: hike widely expected today, but Deutsche Bank tips a surprise hold

Earlier:

• Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA hold call as 31 of 32 economists tip a hike
• JPMorgan joins hike call for RBA’s November meeting, sees tightening bias persisting
• RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February
• ING lifts AUD/USD target to 0.71 as it backs a 25bp RBA hike next week
• RBA set for back-to-back hike after hot CPI, says Natixis’ Garcia Herrero

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its latest policy decision at 2:30pm Sydney time on Tuesday (0330 GMT, 2230 US Eastern on Monday), with markets and economists overwhelmingly expecting a fifth rate increase this year.

Of 32 economists polled by Reuters, 31 forecast…

• Economic and event calendar in Asia 03 November 2026 - RBA rate hike expected
• Apple and Palantir earnings preview: The numbers buyers and sellers will be watching
• Iran and US reportedly on verge of preliminary agreement
• Gold Technicals: Gold is up sharply erasing some of last week's declines. Bounces off key MA target.
• US construction spending for the month of September -1.9% versus 0.3% estimate
• US ISM manufacturing PMI for October 55.5 versus 54.5 estimate
• US S&P Global final manufacturing PMI for October 54.9 vs 56.0 preliminary
• Canada S&P global manufacturing PMI 49.6 versus 51.5 last month
• US election: The key races that could tip control of Congress
• Iran’s Pezeshkian says Supreme Leader has granted government some authority on dialogue
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/morning-kickstart-oil-tumbles-as-iran-talks-continue-usd-mixed-ahead-of-ism"…

The guidance, more than the quarter itself, is likely to set the tone for the shares, with the fourth-quarter revenue outlook clearing consensus by close to $200 million. A beat of this scale from one of the most closely followed AI software names offers support to the broader AI spending trade, with Apple also due to report. The read-through for US tech futures and enterprise software peers is constructive, though any initial after-hours move may be tested once management discusses demand for 2027 on the call.

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Earlier:

• Apple and Palantir earnings preview: The numbers buyers and sellers will be watching

---Palantir beat on every major line and raised its guidance well above consensus, leaving next year’s demand outlook as the main…