Market News

The USDCHF has been grinding steadily higher throughout July, adding another modest gain today. The pair is up about 0.21% after recovering from an early European-session dip, with the rebound lifting the price to fresh 2026 highs and its highest level since June 2025. The session high reached 0.8184 so far.

That advance has carried the pair into an important resistance zone defined by swing highs from June and August 2025 between 0.8170 and 0.8214 (see yellow area on the daily chart above). Also within that zone sits the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high to the January 2026 low, which comes in at 0.82116. Buyers are now testing this cluster of technical resistance. A sustained move above 0.8214 would strengthen…

Reports from Iranian state-affiliated news agencies Fars and Tasnim said explosions were heard in Saudi Arabia early Friday. Fars claimed a drone struck logistics warehouses used by the U.S. Army, while Tasnim separately reported explosions in the kingdom without providing additional details. As of now, there has been no confirmation from Saudi officials, the U.S. military, or other independent sources regarding the reported attack or any resulting damage.

If confirmed, the incident would mark another escalation in the regional conflict, highlighting the continued vulnerability of U.S. military logistics and infrastructure across the Middle East. Market participants will likely be watching closely for official confirmation and any signs…

• Prior +1.2% revised to 1.4%
• PPI MoM -1.4% vs -0.4% expected
• PPI YoY 12.4% vs 13.6% last month
• Raw Material Price index MoM -6.9% vs 0.5% last month
• Raw Material Price index YoY 20.7% vs 33.4% lst month

Details of the PPI data:

• Main driver: A tentative U.S.-Iran agreement eased concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices sharply lower.
• Excluding energy and petroleum: IPPI edged down 0.1%, led by weaker primary non-ferrous metal prices.

Key price changes

• Energy & petroleum products:-9.1%
  • Refined petroleum products: -10.3%
  • Finished motor gasoline: -11.0%
  • Diesel fuel: -9.7%
  • Crude energy products: -13.7% (second straight monthly decline)
• Primary non-ferrous metal products:-4.7%
  • Largest monthly decline since July…

• Prior was -0.3%

The latest reading suggests that price pressures in the new home market remain subdued, although the pace of declines has eased. Elevated borrowing costs, affordability challenges, and softer housing demand continue to weigh on builders' pricing power, despite the gradual stabilization seen in recent months.

While the smaller monthly decline points to some resilience in the sector, the data indicate that Canada's new home market remains under pressure as developers navigate a cautious demand environment and buyers continue to adjust to higher financing costs.

For background, the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) is a monthly series that measures changes over time in the builders' selling prices of new residential houses, where…

The USD is little changed to kickstart the last trading day of the week in the North American session.  The three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - are all withing 0.06% of the closing level from yesterday with moves lower generally initially leading to USD buyers. In the video, I take a look at those currency pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the risks and the targets for each.  Be aware. Be Prepared.   Understand the roadmap for your trading. 

In the markets, US stocks are mixed with the futures implying Dow up 141 points, the S&P unchanged and the Nasdaq -46 points. Intel shares are up after beating expectations and increasing forward guidance.  However, they are also well off the highs from…

ECB's Simkus:

• $100 oil will have repercussions on inflation
• Inflation risk has increased
• Theres' no value in rushing with a decision now
• We will have additional inflation data in September
• I still see probability of a rate hike higher than a hold
• We do not see second-round effects of higher inflation

ECB's Rehn:

• Not seeing signs of second-round effects
• We need to keep a cool head
• Energy crisis is not over yet

ECB's Makhlouf:

• We will have more information in September
• Inflationary pressures have not gone away

Several ECB policymakers struck a cautious but hawkish tone, reinforcing the message delivered after yesterday's policy meeting that the Governing Council remains prepared to tighten policy further if the inflation outlook were to deteriorate.

ECB's…

Bitcoin price analysis today: BTC futures trapped in a two-way decision zone

Bitcoin futures remain neutral between $64,940 and $65,380, where nearby support and resistance increase the risk of whipsaws. Acceptance above $65,380 would give buyers a clearer intraday advantage, while sustained trade below $64,940 would strengthen the bearish case.

Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders today

• Current market state: Neutral and vulnerable to false breakouts
• Bullish above:$65,380
• Bullish targets:$65,480, $65,610, $65,730 and $65,870
• Bearish below:$64,940
• Bearish targets:$64,880, $64,735 and $64,670
• Deeper bearish target:$64,190
• Neutral decision zone:$64,940-$65,380

This is a pure investingLive tradeCompass analysis without a prediction score. The objective…

Headlines:

• Middle East tensions remain heightened with the weekend drawing closer
• Oil prices come off the boil in final stretch of the week
• Oil Analysis Today: Tactical Bearish Bias Takes Hold Near $90 Support Shelf as Markets Weigh ECB Pause and Iran Tensions
• ECB's Kocher: Don't see evidence of second-round effects but will act if inflation outlook deteriorates
• ECB policymaker Nagel says should not pre-commit to any rate move before September meeting
• French business activity stabilises in July amid strong rebound in the services economy
• Germany July flash manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 50.5 expected
• Euro area business activity rises for first time in four months as demand conditions rebound
• UK July flash services PMI 51.8 vs 49.4 expected
• UK retail…

USD/JPY has been a key focus in trading this week and all the while as oil prices ramp higher alongside bond yields, the currency pair is also gradually pushing up in hitting fresh 40-year highs. After some trepidation in May, it has been one-way traffic for the currency pair in recent weeks. That being said, the move higher has been gradual and managed with traders not wanting to run too far, too fast.

There was a bit of a scare in early July but since then, traders have become emboldened to take USD/JPY higher with the US-Iran conflict starting up again.

While Tokyo officials have been offering some verbal intervention, MUFG believes that the current price action in USD/JPY doesn't quite warrant any intervention plays just yet.

Trading always involves an element of uncertainty. You can painstakingly analyse charts and carefully follow the news, but you will never know with 100% certainty what will happen next in the financial markets. That's why successful traders rely on a strategy rather than gut instinct. A strategy turns uncertainty into a series of repeatable decisions, helping you stay consistent instead of reacting emotionally to every price movement.

While a strategy doesn't guarantee a profit and risks remain real, it is a sensible, well-proven tool that is well worth adopting. Even a good strategy isn't foolproof and can fail on any individual trade. However, because it takes broader market dynamics and trends into account, it pays off in the long run…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold erased most of the gains from the likely technical-driven rebound of the last couple of days. The rebound lacked support from the near-term fundamentals as the prolonged US-Iran conflict pushed oil prices even higher and traders increased rate hike bets.

There’s not much to look at on the fundamental side than just monitoring the US-Iran developments. A de-escalation would lead to a dovish repricing and trigger a relief rally in gold, but as long as the conflict continues, the tightening in financial conditions will keep the market under pressure.

There is also some fear that the Fed could surprise with a rate hike at the upcoming July meeting…

Deriv has brought its Derived Indices to TradingView.For existing traders, it's another way into the 24/7 markets; for TradingView's users, it's a first look at indices they can only trade with Deriv. 

The proposition is distinct from a conventional broker integration. Deriv is not simply adding another route to trade widely available markets. It is bringing a proprietary product range to TradingView, including Volatility Indices and Crash/Boom Indices, that traders cannot access through any other broker on the platform. 

For traders new to Deriv, the integration provides access to markets designed to trade around the clock and independently of company earnings, central-bank decisions, geopolitical events,

and traditional exchange hours.…