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The main focus in markets is still on US-Iran tensions and that hasn't really changed much since the start of the week. From earlier: Middle East tensions remain heightened with the weekend drawing closer

But after four days of grappling with more doom and gloom, the mood in markets today is hinting at a bit of a light breather. Well, for now at least.

Oil prices are nudging back down and coming off the boil, with WTI crude lower by 3% today to drop back under $90.

[WTI crude oil daily chart ($/bbl)]

The chart above will be one to watch as price action is now being called back towards a test of the 100-day moving average (red line). Keep above that and the more bullish momentum obtained yesterday will continue to hold. But drop below the key…

Key takeaway for gold traders today: August gold futures have recovered above $4,050, but buyers still need acceptance above $4,068 to strengthen the recovery. A break below $4,038 would suggest that the rebound is failing and could return the gold price toward the $4,031-$4,024 support cluster.

August gold futures were trading near $4,055 at the time of this analysis, following a strong rebound from an overnight low near $4,024.

The recovery has improved the intraday picture, but it follows a much larger decline from Wednesday’s high near $4,171. Gold has therefore repaired some of the immediate damage without yet reversing the entire decline.

Importantly, short-term weakness does not automatically determine the longer-term gold outlook. A…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia session was dominated by risk-off sentiment rather than economic data releases. Escalating Middle East tensions pushed crude oil above $100 per barrel, renewing inflation concerns and lifting global bond yields. This strengthened the U.S. dollar, weakened the yen and other major currencies, and weighed heavily on Asian stock markets. With no major Asian macroeconomic releases, traders focused on geopolitical risks, BOJ policy expectations, and positioning ahead of the European PMI surveys and the UK Retail Sales data scheduled later today.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s focus shifts from yesterday’s labor market data to…

• Prior 48.8
• Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 52.0 expected
• Prior 52.5
• Composite PMI 52.1 vs 49.7 expected
• Prior 49.3

Key Findings:

• UK private sector business activity returns to growth in July

Comment:

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“UK businesses reported stronger activity in July, pointing to a faster pace of economic growth at the start of the third quarter. “Hospitality companies saw demand boosted by good weather, the FIFA World Cup and more domestic holidays, as high costs and uncertainty continued to deter some foreign travel. However, overall services growth remained lacklustre amid cost-of-living pressures. Unusually for recent years, manufacturing is now growing faster than services, buoyed by…

• July flash services PMI 51.6 vs 49.8 expected
• Prior 49.4
• July flash manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.5 expected
• Prior 51.4
• July flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 50.3 expected
• Prior 50.3

It's all good news for the euro area economy to start Q3, with better readings across both the services and manufacturing sectors. Overall business activity expanded further with the services print being a 5-month high and manufacturing print a 3-month high. On the latter, the manufacturing output index even shot up to a 52-month high and underscores the recovery especially in the German scene.

The rise in output in July was in line with a renewed increase in new orders, the first in five months. Although modest, the rate of growth was the fastest since April 2023.

Adding…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 3.01%, Shanghai Composite down 1.20% Hang Seng down 1.23% ASX down 0.95%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,033.90 (-0.40%) Silver at $57.650 (-0.70%), Brent Oil at 100.70 (0.01%), WTI Oil at 91.99 (-0.22%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.709, UK 10-year yield at 5.1036, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2115

• (EUR)   Main Refinancing Rate  2.40%  to  2.40% expected

(USD)   Unemployment Claims  187K    to  211K  expected

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday night after a broad market sell-off driven by surging oil prices and disappointing earnings from major technology companies. S&P 500 futures were flat, while Nasdaq-100 and Dow futures…

Crude oil price analysis today: CL tests critical $90 support as sellers take control

CL crude oil futures are tactically bearish after reversing sharply from $93.50, but the decline is now testing important support around $90.10-$90.30. Sellers retain control below $91.70-$91.85, although chasing the market lower at current prices offers less attractive reward-to-risk. A sustained break below $90.15 would strengthen the case for a deeper correction.

Key takeaways for crude oil traders today

• Prediction score:-5 on a scale from -10 to +10
• Immediate bias: Bearish, but becoming stretched near support
• Primary support:$90.10-$90.30
• Bearish threshold: Sustained trade below $90.15
• Early recovery signal: Reclaim of $90.55-$90.65
• Meaningful bullish…

• Prior 50.3
• Services PMI 49.6 vs 49.0 expected
• Prior 48.6
• Composite PMI 51.2 vs 49.8 expected
• Prior 49.5

Key findings:

German PMI climbs back into growth territory in July, driven by expansion in manufacturing production

Comment:

Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"The German economy made a positive start to the third quarter, with the Composite PMI returning to growth territory after having signalled a three-month spell of contraction following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, given the escalating hostilities in the region in the past week or so, which have put renewed upward pressure on global energy prices, the path to a sustainable recovery still seems very much uncertain.

…

• July flash services PMI 49.8 vs 47.5 expected
• Prior 46.8
• July flash manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 51.0 expected
• Prior 51.2
• July flash composite PMI 49.6 vs 47.8 expected
• Prior 47.2

The services print is a 7-month high and that is carrying the French economy in July, amid a step back in the manufacturing sector on the month.

Of note, demand for services was seen rising for the first time since November last year. So, that brought much stabilisation to the overall economy - even if still in contraction territory, albeit marginally.

That being said, private sector employment remained under pressure and declined again while business optimism stayed subdued. So, there's that.

The only other good news at least is that input cost and output price inflation…