Market News

Stocks Rally on AI Surge – Nasdaq Hits New High, up 2.26%

US equity markets rallied strongly on Monday, with technology stocks leading the advance as investors returned to AI-related names and falling oil prices provided further support to risk sentiment. The Dow Jones gained 0.71% to close at 52,048, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.49% to 7,764. The Nasdaq significantly outperformed, rising 2.26% to a fresh record close of 27,122.

US Treasury yields were mixed across the curve. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield edged 0.4 basis points higher to 4.747%, while the benchmark 10-year yield fell 4.5 basis points to 4.951%, moving back below the key 5% level. Despite the decline in longer-dated yields, the US dollar strengthened against the…

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States takes steps to ease military and economic pressure on Tehran, according to a senior Iranian government official cited by Kyodo News. The proposal was reportedly conveyed to Washington through intermediaries as diplomatic efforts intensify around the UN General Assembly in New York.

Under the proposal, Iran would reopen the strategic waterway if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and announces a plan to halt military operations around the strait. Tehran is also seeking renewed negotiations aimed at reaching a longer-term end to hostilities.

The offer comes after Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said on September 19…

After all the hype and talk about the Fed, somehow stocks are finding some breathing room again.

The Nasdaq closed at a record high on Monday as AI optimism returned, while the S&P 500 also posted a strong rebound. Lower oil prices and a mild retreat in Treasury yields have helped improve the mood after last week's volatility.

However, I don't think broader markets are completely out of the woods just yet.

10-year Treasury yields are continuing to sit uncomfortably close to the 5% mark, having briefly pushed above it last week for the first time since 2023. And as long as yields remain around these levels, there is still an underlying source of tension that makes any relief rally feel slightly more fragile.

I'm not doubting the fact…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin surged on Friday after a CFTC crypto rulemaking submission on Thursday became public.The filings were submitted for regulatory review after the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate earlier in the week. The CFTC has effectively signalled that it intends to move forward with a crypto market framework using its existing authority rather than waiting for Congress.

Yesterday, we saw the momentum in bitcoin picking up further after the cryptocurrency broke out of its month-long range. That might have been caused by short-covering after such a major breakout. Finally, Strategy resumed Bitcoin purchases, buying another 950 BTC for…

The opening mood is leaning towards being more cautious as we get the session underway:

• Eurostoxx +0.2%
• Germany DAX -0.3%
• France CAC 40 flat
• UK FTSE -0.1%
• Spain IBEX -0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.4%

European equities are seeing a more mixed start after yesterday's strong rebound, with the broader STOXX 600 also little changed. The main shift from Monday is that oil prices are rebounding, with Brent crude now trading back above $101 as traders weigh the possibility of US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

That is taking some of the shine off yesterday's relief rally, when falling oil prices and lower bond yields helped lift risk assets sharply.

Germany is the notable laggard among the major regional markets. Deutsche Bank…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil extended the losses yesterday as hopes of de-escalation continued to grow ahead of Trump’s meeting with Gulf leaders and potentially Iranian President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly.

Moreover, the Financial Times reported yesterday that Gulf governments have called for a reset in relations with Iran, with the UAE pushing for a “new mindset” and Qatar advocating for a regional “security framework” with Iran following the conflict, which exposed their vulnerability to Iranian attacks and undermined confidence in the US security presence in the region.

The Qatari Prime Minister called the war against Iran, initiated by the US…

Costco will be reporting its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, with Wall Street looking for EPS of around $6.53 to $6.55 on revenue of roughly $94.9 billion.

Those numbers matter, but I think there is a more interesting question sitting beneath that. That being:

Is the US consumer actually starting to weaken, or are households simply becoming much more selective about where they spend?

Heading into the earnings call, the latest US retail sales data would argue against any outright consumer collapse. Retail sales rose 1.2% in August, comfortably beating expectations, while spending excluding gasoline also remained strong. But that resilience is being tested by a much less comfortable inflation backdrop, with <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-august-cpi-vs-3-4-expected/"…

So far this week, gold is struggling to build on last week’s rebound with prices slipping back towards $4,330 today. The market continues to digest a more hawkish Fed and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer and that is weighing slightly on the precious metal.

Even as the bond market is calmer this week and risk sentiment is picking up, gold is still moving with caution as the overall rates backdrop remains an obvious headwind for the non-yielding metal.

The macro story may capture some of the headlines to start the week but I would argue that the technical story is just as interesting.

On the hourly chart, gold has spent the past few sessions getting increasingly compressed around its 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour…

There are a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first is for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level, which sits less than 30 pips higher away from the current spot price.

The expiry level doesn't tie to any technical significance but could act as a short-term focal point or magnet, should there be any upward extension in price action later.

That being said, just be wary that the 100-hour moving average for EUR/USD is resting at around 1.1485 currently. And so, that will also play a role in keeping any upside extensions more limited from a technical perspective. If anything, that will be the first layer in keeping price action more in check before the expiries at 1.1500 come into play after.

Then,…

Investment scams can look like ordinary investing but...

A stock-tip group, a helpful adviser and a trading app showing steady profits. Before sending money, verify who operates the account, where your deposit goes and whether the person contacting you is genuine. A professional appearance, familiar logo or security code does not prove legitimacy.

These lessons apply across countries and market cycles. The language, messaging service and fashionable investment may change. The underlying tactic can remain the same: build trust, make the opportunity feel urgent and persuade someone to transfer more money before checking independently.

How an investment scam can build trust step by step

Consider this illustrative example, rather than a specific…

The dollar is finally starting to respond more convincingly to the shift in the rates backdrop, and both ANZ and Credit Agricole see reasons for that support to extend in the near-term.

However, there is a subtle difference in the way that they are framing the move.

ANZ says it expects "the front-end repricing to keep the USD supported into October", although it is already “wary of chasing it”. And that distinction matters.

The firm argues that dollar shorts had already built up steadily beforehand, meaning some of the latest strength may reflect short-covering rather than a fresh wave of bullish positioning.

That leaves the underlying rates story doing most of the heavy lifting I would say. More hawkish Fed expectations and higher front-end…