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Markets Rally After Ceasefire Confirmed – Oil down 16%

US equity markets finished little changed overnight, recovering from earlier sharp losses as investors weighed the increasing likelihood of a ceasefire in the Middle East against the approaching deadline set by Donald Trump. The Dow slipped 0.18% to close at 46,584, while the S&P 500 edged 0.08% higher to 6,616 and the Nasdaq gained 0.10% to finish at 22,017, reflecting a cautious tone throughout the session. In fixed income, US Treasury yields moved notably lower as geopolitical tensions appeared to ease, with the 2-year yield falling 6.0 basis points to 3.788% and the 10-year yield declining 3.8 basis points to 4.293%. The US dollar also softened, dropping 0.31% to 99.67, as…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight U.S. trading was dominated by a surprisingly strong March jobs report and hawkish Fed commentary that pushed back expectations for rate cuts, while geopolitical headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz sent oil sharply higher and initially weighed on risk assets; ultimately, tech‑heavy indices recovered and ended marginally positive as de‑escalation‑risk premiums eased, leaving equities, oil, and the dollar as the most reactive instruments to the confluence of macro data and politics.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Escalating US-Iran tensions on April 8, 2026, as President Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for Iran…

• Prior +0.3%

UK house prices dipped a little in March, with the average property price now seen at £299,677. That also sees the annual house price growth slow to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in February. That shows the market has long some bounce going into the spring season but perhaps relative economic uncertainty from the events in the Middle East is also weighing.

Halifax notes that:

"Concerns about higher energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, which in turn led to a rise in mortgage rates, reducing confidence that interest rates will be cut this year and dampening the initial momentum in the market seen at the start of the year."

Adding that:

“The effect on house prices will largely depend on how long‑lasting these pressures prove…

• Prior -11.1%

The February reading marks a minor bounce after the sharp drop in January, which at the time owed to a steep drop in the orders for the manufacture of metal products (-39.4%). That of course follows up from the sharp jump in December (+29.7%) before that. So, it is essentially some normalisation in the data after months of volatile orders having an effect.

If you exclude large orders from the latest data, German factory orders were actually 3.5% in February compared to January. In the less volatile three-month comparison though, new orders in the three months to February were still down 0.8% than in the preceeding three months.

Looking at the details, new orders in the automotive industry helped to underpin the bounce in…

Well, here we go again. Another two-week ceasefire but this time around, it seems like there is a better feeling that the war is slowly winding down. And perhaps more importantly, this time Iran is also agreeing to it and coming to the negotiating table.

US president Trump dropped the news overnight and that is seeing markets catch a massive risk-on wave. Oil prices have plummeted while stocks are rallying hard on the headlines, with bond yields falling off alongside the dollar.

Here's a quick catch up of how things went since last night:

• US president Trump announces "double-sided" ceasefire for two weeks
• This is conditional on the Strait of Hormuz "reopening"
• Iran confirms the ceasefire, with its 10-point proposal being the basis for talks to…

• RBNZ expands media outreach after hold decision amid uncertain outlook - Breman schedule
• Reports that Iran will allow only 10-15 ships / day to pass through Strait of Hormuz
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected
• Bank of Korea seen holding rates on April 10 as oil shock lifts inflation risks
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8680 (vs. estimate at 6.8369)
• Israel wary of ceasefire, raising doubts over US-Iran truce durability
• Market rejoicing continues: Oil down, gold up. USD down, equities up.
• Japan real wages jump most in five years, boosting BoJ hike expectations
• Iran confirms US talks, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point deal
• Anthropic warns new AI model could accelerate cyberattacks, refuses…

Anthropic warns its latest AI model could supercharge cyberattacks, refuses to release 'Claude Mythos'. Rushing to arm defenders first.

Summary:

• Anthropic restricts release of new AI model over cyberattack risks
• Model given to major firms to strengthen defenses first
• AI agents could dramatically accelerate hacking speed and scale
• Concerns growing over widening gap between attackers and defenders
• Model reportedly finding vulnerabilities at unprecedented rates
• US officials briefed, highlighting national security implications
• Controlled rollout aims to prepare before broader AI proliferation

Anthropic is moving cautiously with its latest artificial intelligence model, warning that its capabilities could significantly accelerate…

more to come

A regional source tells CNN that a deal between the US and Iran is expected to be closed tonight.