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Shariff:

• Says diplomatic efforts are progressing steadily
• Requests Trump extend the deadline for two weeks
• Requests Iran open the Strait for two weeks as a goodwill gesture
• Urges all sides to observe a ceasefire for two weeks to allow diplomacy and achieve a conclusive termination of the war

Some positive movements in markets on this but Iran has dug in previously to say that it won't open Hormuz for a temporary ceasefire and only wants a conclusion to the war with guarantees.

Here is the full message:

Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly…

The obvious target of such an attack would be the King Fahd Causeway, which is the main artery between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with millions of crossings each year.

Bahrain’s hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment sectors are heavily dependent on visits from Saudi Arabia, along with many jobs that rely on cross-border commuting.

The series of bridges and islands spans 25 km and is the only land link between the two and often handles 60,000 vehicles per day. If destroyed it would virtually eliminate the tourist economy from Bahrain, which is 6-8% of GDP.

Another notable target would be the Jubail causeway. It serves the Jubail industrial city, which is the home of much of Saudi Arabia's petrochemicals industry. It's a 12km span that…

• High-yield 3.897%
• WI level at the time of the auction 3.909%
• Tail of -1.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of -0.3 basis points .
• Bid to cover 2.68X vs 6 auction average of 2.66X
• Dealers 13.28% versus 6 auction average of 12.3%.
• Directs 11.9% versus 6 auction average of 25.8%.
• Indirects 74.8% versus 6 auction average of 61.9%

The international buyers were the heavy lifters in the auction with them taking nearly 75% of the auction well above the 6 auction average of 61.9%. The tail of -1.2 basis points is indicative of strong bidding. The bid to cover was near the average suggesting that the international buyers were the big participant, but the domestic direct bidders were much less than average. The dealer takedown was a little bit…

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though a deal by Trump's 8 pm ET deadline remains a "longshot", Axios writes.

This is the latest in the non-stop series of 'leaks' on the US/Israel-Iran war and it cites an Israeli official a "two other sources" with knowledge of talks. It comes after the Tehran Times deleted a post saying that the diplomatic track had been cut off and replaced it with a message saying that talks were still possible.

A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from "can we get there?" to "can we get there by 8 o'clock tonight?"

Trump himself hinted he could extend the deadline when speaking with Fox earlier today. That would be the fourth…

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will compared to the 6 auction average for the major components. Below are the last values at the last 3 year note auction followed by the 6 auction average.

• High Yield: 3.579% (6-auction avg. 3.579%)
• Tail: 1.1 bps (6-auction avg. -0.3 bps)
• Bid-to-Cover: 2.55x (6-auction avg. 2.66x)
• Dealers: 19.5% (6-auction avg. 12.3%)
• Directs: 20.7% (6-auction avg. 25.8%)
• Indirects: 59.8% (6-auction avg. 61.9%)

What do each of these components represent

• Tail: The difference between the auction yield and the when-issued (WI) yield just before the auction → Positive tail: weaker demand (investors demanded a higher yield) → Negative tail (stop-through):…

The White House says, only the president knows on Iran negotiations. The Iranian regime has until 8 PM to make a deal.

In other news, :

• The IRGC commander declares new phase of reprisal attacks against aggressors, and warned that if the US crosses redlines, the IRGC's response will be extend far beyond the region
• Saudi Arabia is reporting a phone call between 70 crown prints and Prime Minister Pakistan, in the midst of the Pakistani attempt to bring about some kind of cease-fire in the 90th minute, just before Trump's ultimatum expires.
• Axios is reporting that progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between US and Iran, the reaching a cease-fire deal by a p.m. deadline still looks like a long shot.
• Israel military is…

• One-year inflation 3.4% vs 3.0% prior
• Three-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.0% prior
• Five-year inflation unchanged at 3.0%
• Year-ahead gasoline price inflation at the highest since 2022
• Expected house price index rise 3.3% vs 3.0% prior
• Households more pessimistic about current and future financial situations

This is obviously going in the wrong direction but it's not an alarmist kind of number.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The semi-official Tehran Times says that the diplomatic and indirect channels for talks with Washington have not been completely closed. It's a reversal from an earlier post that said diplomatic channels were cut off. It also deleted the earlier post.

The latest post says "diplomatic and indirect channels of talks with the US are not closed."

Notably, a WSJ report just 47 minutes ago said direct communication had been cut off, citing "Middle Eastern officials".

Risk assets have come off the lows on this but it's not a big bounce.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump posts on Truth Social:

A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!

There is still some hope but today looks pivotal. This isn't the usual morning TACO.

S&P 500 futures are down 40 points, or 0.6%.

If the US attacks energy and bridge infrastructure, we will see if Iran…

This is a bizarre communication strategy where you have Vance and Trump saying very different things. Vance is now saying the war could end "very shortly".

The military objectives of the Iran war have been completed, Vance said and added that "we hope Iran is smart." He reiterated that 8 pm ET is the deadline for a response from Iran and said he "feels confident" the US will get a response by then.

So how can these two perspectives co-exist?

Perhaps this comment is directed at Iran and says that if they agree to US terms, there won't be destruction of power and bridges. But maybe it's directed at Americans and the message is that the US might pull out anyway after destroying bridges and energy.

Again, this is a precarious moment in the world…

• Prior was 0.0% (revised to -0.5%)

• Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.8% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)
• Durable goods ex-defense -1.2% vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.2%)
• Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.1% (revised to -0.4%)

This is a mixed bag. There are some pockets of strength but those are some poor revisions on core orders.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Iran's Kharg Island targeted with several strikes
• Strike hits railway bridge in Iran's Kashan killing two
• Israel: Completed a wave of attacks on Iran a short while ago

It looks like we are entering a new phase of escalation as Israel confirmed a wave of airstrikes across Iran, targeting critical economic and transport hubs. Mehr News is reporting that Iran's Kharg Island was targeted with several strikes and a railway bridge in Kashan was also hit killing two people. This comes just hours before Trump’s self-imposed deadline for Iran to accept a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz or face the total destruction of its infrastructure.

While Iranian state media initially reported controlled damage, local sources suggest the strikes hit…