Market News

US deploys low-cost ‘Lucas’ drone inspired by Iranian design in war. Wall Street Journal report (gated)

Summary:

• US deploys low-cost “Lucas” drone built from reverse-engineered Iranian tech
• Rapid development marks shift toward cheaper, scalable warfare systems
• Drones used in strikes on Iranian military and IRGC infrastructure
• Cost efficiency contrasts sharply with traditional US munitions
• Highlights both progress and gaps in US defence readiness

A low-cost attack drone developed by the US military using reverse-engineered Iranian technology is emerging as a defining feature of the current conflict, underscoring a major shift in how modern warfare is being approached.

The system, known as the FLM-136 or “Lucas,” was designed in under two…

Tsunami threat issued:

• M 7.8
• 119 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia
• Depth 10.0 km

Impacts could extend to shores of Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US tariff overhaul simplifies rules but risks raising effective import costs. Info via Wall Street Journal (gated).

Summary:

• Trump administration preparing overhaul of steel and aluminium tariffs
• Proposed shift to 25% levy on full value of finished goods
• Change simplifies compliance but may lift effective import costs
• Commodity metals to remain under existing tariff structure
• Could boost tariff revenue after court rulings cut other levie

The Trump administration is preparing to overhaul its steel and aluminium tariff framework, with a shift in how duties are applied to finished goods that could materially alter import costs despite an apparent reduction in headline rates.

According to reports, a presidential proclamation could be issued…

• US equities make good gains for a second day but fade somewhat late
• Trump will say the Iran war is "winding down" in address, will criticize NATO
• Iran's Pres Pezeskian : Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations
• The message from the market: The war will end because Trump wants it to end
• December WTI crude tells a story of moderate disruption. What's the signal?
• French Navy chief speaking regarding the Strait of Hormuz
• White House: Pres Trump to reiterate 2 to 3 week timetable for end of war
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow dips to 1.9% from 2.0% last.
• Both the S&P and NASDAQ are testing key technical bias levels. Bulls and Bears fight
• Trump via Vance told Iran that he's open to ceasefire if Hormuz opened - report
• EIA weekly US crude oil inventories…

The main focal point today will, of course, be Trump speaking:

• Trump will say the Iran war is "winding down" in address, will criticize NATO

There is still US troop movement to the Middle East so regardless of what he says he might sneak in a ground assault some time over the weekend.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump yesterday announced that he will deliver a speech at 9 pm today.

There have been hints and leaks about it all day and now we have another one from Politico that says:

• Trump will declare the war is "winding down"
• He's expected to claim that all military objectives have been met
• He intends to harshly scapegoat NATO allies for Homuz
• Steve Bannon, Trump’s former White House chief strategist, said the president will essentially declare victory
• Speech may touch on how he intends to move forward if ceasefire talks sputter

Here is what Bannon said:

“Two, three weeks, definable objectives. ‘I came, I saw, I conquered’ — and we are hanging around a couple of weeks to conquer some more — maybe even then a ceasefire, while reiterating that the Hormuz…

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”

In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning recent bombings of Iranian infrastructure, Pezeshkian notes that Tehran harbors no enmity toward ordinary Americans.

Instead, he urges the U.S. populace to look past “manufactured narratives,” arguing that the perceived Iranian threat is an invention of the military-industrial complex and Israeli political interests.

Summary:

Iran's Historical Identity Pezeshkian presents Iran as one of the world's…

Yesterday, Pres Trump posted on Truth Social:

Today, the French Navy Chief is speaking and saying:

• Number of Chinese vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz not enough to restore normal traffic flows
• China will probably need to engage more directly in the debate and show its impatience on closure of Strait of Hormuz.
• France's trying to bring several countries together at political level to determine conditions under which the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened in a lasting way.
• Military would ultimately be needed to monitor Hormuz reopening.
• No evidence at this stage that Strait of Hormuz has been mined

French Navy — Current Forces

The Marine Nationale fields a well-rounded modern fleet centered on the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles…

The White House is saying that Pres. Trump is to reiterate 2 – 3 week timetable for the end of the Iran operations.

US official adds:

• Trump to give operational updata on Iran
• To tout success in achieving goals in Iran.
• To reiterate the 2-3 week timetable.

The president is to address the nation at 9 PM ET.

Course how all this ends is anyone's guess. Israel if it had it's way would want it to go on until all of Iran was destroyed with the splinter terrorist groups.

Iran doesn’t operate through a single group—it uses a network of proxy and splinter militias across the Middle East, often referred to as part of its broader “Axis of Resistance.”

Core Iran-backed groups (primary proxies)

• Hezbollah (Lebanon)
  • Iran’s most important and longest-standing…

Reuters is citing a source briefed on the matter:

• The VP has been talking to 'intermediaries' about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday
• Trump directed Vance to communicate privately that he is open to a ceasefire as long as certain US demands met including reopening Hormuz
• Vance delivered a 'stern' message that Trump was impatient and warned of growing pressure on Iran's infrastructure unless Iran makes a deal

The headlines continue to point to some kind of stalemate. Trump keeps saying Iran wants a ceasefire but this report indicates that it's Trump that wants a ceasefire.

Separately (and probably not coincidentally), Axios reports that three US officials said discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire with Iran in return…

• Prior month 0.0% revised from +0.1%

Details

• Sales: $1.9746T in January; +0.3% m/m (vs Dec 2025), +4.5% y/y
• Inventories: $2.6750T; -0.1% m/m vs 0.1 estimate, +1.0% y/y
• Inventories/Sales Ratio: 1.35, down from 1.40 in Jan 2025

At its core, the Census Business Inventories report is a pulse check on demand vs. supply across the U.S. economy—and right now, the signal is relatively constructive.

Fundamentally, here’s what the latest data is showing:

• Demand is holding up: Sales are still growing (+0.3% m/m, +4.5% y/y), which tells you end-demand hasn’t rolled over. Consumers and businesses are still spending at a steady pace.
• Inventory drawdown (slight): Inventories dipped -0.1% on the month, which suggests firms are not overbuilding stock. Instead,…

• Prior was 52.4

Today's March release showed the PMI rising to 52.3 from 51.6 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold and pointing to a moderate and accelerating pace of expansion. Both output and new orders posted solid gains, supported in part by precautionary safety stock building as firms sought to lock in supply and prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, growth was principally driven by domestic demand, as international sales continued to decline under the weight of tariffs and shipping disruptions.

The conflict's impact was most visible on the cost and supply side. Input price inflation surged to its highest level since August, fueled by rising energy and fuel costs…