Market News

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 November 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets started Monday with mixed sentiment as investors reacted to weaker Chinese economic data and the previous session’s significant sell-off in U.S. technology stocks.

China’s manufacturing PMI falling to 49.3 increased concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy, putting pressure on regional currencies, particularly the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Markets begin November with cautious sentiment as investors assess geopolitical risks, elevated oil prices, technology-sector uncertainty and the outlook for interest rates.

The U.S. dollar remains sensitive to Federal…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 November 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session ended with significant pressure on equities, particularly technology stocks, as investors became increasingly concerned about AI valuations and corporate spending. Intel’s sharp decline added to the negative sentiment.

Meanwhile, strong U.S. economic growth and persistent inflation concerns continued to support expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy or consider another rate increase. This remains supportive of the U.S. dollar but creates headwinds for gold.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets start Monday with a cautious outlook as investors balance concerns about China’s…

• Germany September retail sales -2.0% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2%
• Germany September retail sales -2.3% y/y
• Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.3%

Ouch. Death, taxes, and Germany economic data disappointing on expectations. It feels almost inevitable more often than not. That's a big miss on German retail sales with consumption activity softening across the board.

Looking at the breakdown, sales at petrol stations were down 3.4%, sales of food products down 1.4%, and non-food retail trade was down 2.4% in September compared to the month before. That is hardly a convincing sign that German households are dealing well with the growing inflation pressure that is tiding over Europe especially in the second half of the year.

The only…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.32%, Shanghai Composite up 1.16% Hang Seng up 0.62% ASX down 0.57%

●        Commodities : Gold at $3,917.95 (0.48%) Silver at $50.165 (-1.80%), Brent Oil at 109.71 (-3.28%), WTI Oil at 100.61 (-3.38%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.917, UK 10-year yield at 5.2910, Germany 10-year yield at 3.3185

●        (USD) Employment Cost Index q/q  0.8% to 0.8%  expected

U.S. stock futures edged higher on Sunday as investors prepared for a busy week featuring major corporate earnings, employment data and the upcoming midterm elections.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average…

The aussie will be hoping that Christmas will come early this year with the RBA perhaps delivering a timely present tomorrow. But with markets already well expecting a rate hike this week, will Bullock have anything left in her bag of tricks to give the aussie another leg higher?

As things stand, traders are pricing in roughly 87% odds of a 25 bps rate hike tomorrow, which will take the cash rate to 4.85%. And this will follow the rate hike from September, with inflation proving to be a rather stubborn headache to deal with for policymakers.

But looking further out, traders are barely pricing in any further tightening beyond the one expected tomorrow. In fact, traders only see around 33 bps of cumulative rate hikes by June 2027 and that…

There are just a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 level, with the strike keeping just a little over 30 pips from the spot price. With price action still somewhat more limited below the 1.1200 level, the expiries could provide some attraction if we are to see the dollar strengthen in the session ahead. The expiries are holding near the swing lows late on Friday and also earlier today, so they might provide some magnet for price action to keep around there on any downside push in the session ahead.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 158.00 level - roughly 20-25 pips away from the spot price. The pair continues to be caught in a lot of back and…

It's a rather troubling time for gold after having dropped to its lowest in over a year at the end of last week. And just when you think things couldn't get any worse for the precious metal, the technicals are now threatening to deliver another nasty surprise.

The latest selloff has dragged gold price back towards the $3,900 mark, leaving buyers in a rather difficult situation. The question now is whether this where they finally draw the line or are we about to witness a much deeper correction?

The plunge on Friday saw gold break below the $4,000 mark as broader market selling and liquidity pressures added to the pain. The modest bounce today offers some relief but I wouldn't be celebrating just yet. The weekly chart tells a much more…

US Stocks Tumble as Tech Sell-Off Deepens – Nasdaq Down 2.86%

US equity markets finished the trading week under significant pressure on Friday, with technology stocks once again leading the declines as growing concerns over artificial intelligence expenditure continued to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq suffered the largest losses, plunging 2.86% to close at 25,437, while the broader S&P 500 dropped 1.82% to finish at 7,580. The Dow Jones also came under pressure, falling 1.09% to close at 51,770. Investors remain increasingly concerned about the substantial levels of capital expenditure being committed to AI development and the potential impact on profitability.

US Treasury markets experienced a relatively subdued…

I reckon that US president Trump might be in for a rude awakening after tomorrow. Or perhaps he is already aware of his current predicament, although I wouldn't put it past him to refuse to accept that reality. Either way, he's going to have to deal with the possibility that his grip on Congress could be slipping away.

As the US heads to the polls tomorrow, both the control of the House and Senate hang in the balance. And if the latest polls are anything to go by, Republicans have plenty of reasons to be nervous.

The national generic congressional ballot polls show Democrats holding a sizeable lead over Republicans as cost-of-living frustrations and dissatisfaction with Trump's presidency have weighed on sentiment. Having said that, the…