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After their decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.25% last week, the BOJ is once again reinforcing the message that underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with its 2% target. There is a sense that it's almost as if they're trying to convince themselves that it might be finally time to do something about it.

Here are some remarks from their latest quarterly outlook report:

• Rate hikes will likely help ease inflationary pressures, in turn supporting household consumption
• Underlying inflation has accelerated to around 2%, gradually becoming embedded around that level in recent years
• Real interest rates have been rising recently, particularly in the long and super-long-term segments
• BOJ is closely scrutinising asset price…

I reckon that US president Trump might be in for a rude awakening after tomorrow. Or perhaps he is already aware of his current predicament, although I wouldn't put it past him to refuse to accept that reality. Either way, he's going to have to deal with the possibility that his grip on Congress could be slipping away.

As the US heads to the polls tomorrow, both the control of the House and Senate hang in the balance. And if the latest polls are anything to go by, Republicans have plenty of reasons to be nervous.

The national generic congressional ballot polls show Democrats holding a sizeable lead over Republicans as cost-of-living frustrations and dissatisfaction with Trump's presidency have weighed on sentiment. Having said that, the…

If margin-call selling was a major factor on Friday, part of the decline could reverse once leveraged positions are cleared, which is why Commerzbank expects a recovery. That makes the tech sector an unusual short-term driver for gold: further AI-led equity losses could trigger more forced liquidation, while stabilisation in stocks would remove the pressure. The bigger influence is still oil. Throughout the Iran war, gold has tended to fall on escalation and rise on easing tensions, as oil feeds Fed hike expectations. Monday’s dip in crude on Qatar-brokered talks is therefore potentially supportive, while renewed attacks on Gulf shipping point the other way. US jobs data on 6 November and inflation data on 10 November will test December…

• Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA hold call as 31 of 32 economists tip a hike
• Goldman lifts December Brent forecast to $105 on Middle East and Russia supply risks
• Tucker Carlson claims Trump weighing nuclear strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain
• Gold’s slide to one-year low: margin calls amplified a fall driven by Fed hike bets
• Election scenarios: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says buy midterm dip, sees S&P 500 at 8,000 after correction
• Bitcoin forecast today: The rebound looks better, but $79,000 is the real test
• Tanker hit by two projectiles off Saudi coast as Gulf incidents reach 10 in three days
• China private factory PMI at 52.0 beats forecasts, output growth fastest since April
• China’s central bank goes daily on 1.25% overnight repo, moving to…

For oil, the claim matters less for its specifics than for what it says about the risk around Tuesday’s midterms. Even without the nuclear element, the confirmed reporting points to a real chance of renewed US strikes on Iran soon after the vote, with Israel reportedly pushing for immediate action. That keeps a sizeable geopolitical premium in crude, and helps explain why banks such as Goldman Sachs are building supply disruption allowances into their forecasts (more to come on this). Against that, Trump’s stated preference to let Qatar-mediated talks run and Iran’s two-day reopening plan for Hormuz offer a path to de-escalation. Traders are likely to stay highly sensitive to headlines from Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran this week, with…

Goldman’s upgrade reinforces the case that oil’s geopolitical premium is likely to persist even if diplomacy produces short-term relief. The bank’s view that a lasting breakthrough will be difficult runs counter to Monday’s talks-driven dip in crude, suggesting some on Wall Street see that move as fragile. Adding a standing disruption allowance to its base case also signals that sell-side forecasters are now treating supply shocks as a feature of the market, not a temporary aberration. Higher oil forecasts also carry wider implications: they add to inflation risks that have already pushed the Fed toward hikes, and that pressure has weighed on gold throughout the war. For energy equities and producer currencies, the revision supports a…

With a hike close to fully priced, the asymmetry is clear. A hold, as Deutsche Bank expects, would likely knock the Australian dollar lower and rally short-dated government bonds, while a hike would largely confirm what markets already expect. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s surprise hold last week shows that central banks can defy near-unanimous pricing, which may make traders less complacent going into the decision. The oil call matters too: Deutsche’s view that Brent falls to $90 by early next year contrasts sharply with Goldman Sachs’ new $105 December forecast, so the outlook for fuel-driven inflation, and therefore for the RBA, depends heavily on how the Middle East plays out after the US midterms.

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Earlier:

• JPMorgan joins hike…

The location of the latest strike matters most for oil. A tanker hit in the northern Gulf, far from Hormuz and near Saudi and Kuwaiti export routes, suggests the risk to shipping is spreading to waters that had been seen as less exposed. That is likely to push war-risk insurance premiums and freight rates higher across the Gulf, not just for strait transits, and to strengthen the supply risk premium in crude. It also sits awkwardly against this morning’s diplomacy-driven dip in prices: talk of reopening Hormuz within days is harder to price in while vessels are being struck across three bodies of water. An oil spill off Oman’s coast adds an environmental and operational risk for regional ports and loading terminals.

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While mediators…

Bitcoin forecast today: The rebound looks better, but $79,000 is the real test

Markets are opening the week with several interesting developments worth following at investingLive.

Oil prices have slipped as Iran outlined a Qatar-brokered proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, provided Washington meets Tehran's conditions. It offers some hope of easing energy supply disruptions, although an agreement has not yet been reached.

Meanwhile, gold's sharp selloff is raising an interesting question for traders: Could the correction eventually offer a buying opportunity, or is it still too early? Our latest analysis explores a conditional gold futures long idea, with an emphasis on patience and managing downside risk.

And in…

Wilson’s view gives investors a framework for Tuesday’s midterms: expect volatility first, then a buying opportunity. A pullback toward 7,100 would be a meaningful drawdown from record highs, so traders are likely to watch whether early weakness after the vote is met with dip-buying, as he expects. His comments on financing echo Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett today: hyperscalers moving between bonds and equity in response to market pricing suggests discipline rather than excess, which supports the credit side of the AI trade. The contrast he draws between quality companies that can live with 5% yields and smaller firms paying 8% to 10% to borrow also points to continued sector dispersion. Geopolitical risk, including the war in Iran,…

The drop reflects traders trimming some of the geopolitical premium built into crude in recent weeks rather than any change in physical supply, which remains constrained while Hormuz flows are disrupted. That makes the move vulnerable to reversal. Washington has not responded to Tehran’s terms, and several of them, including sanctions relief and recognition of Iranian-designated shipping routes, look difficult for the US to accept quickly. The weekend also brought claims of tankers striking mines in the strait, renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and lingering speculation about possible US strikes after Tuesday’s midterms, all of which point to supply risk. Until there is a concrete US response, oil is likely to stay…

Earlier:

• China’s central bank, regulators to meet on stock support after record 12-week slide ... should be supportive for USD/yuan today

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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• injects 541 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase operations, rate unchanged 1.25%
• 1 trillion of overnight reverse repos and 56 billion of 7-day reverse repos maturie
• thus net withdrawal was 515 billion yuan