Market News

The pickup in the composite output index to 52.6 from 50.4 signals a second straight month of expansion and the strongest reading since the start of the year, driven almost entirely by services rather than manufacturing. The return to new order growth after four months of decline, together with the fastest hiring since April, points to a private sector regaining some momentum even as confidence remains near a two and a half year low. Easing cost pressures give the Reserve Bank some room, though a weaker export performance and persistent business caution suggest the recovery is domestically led and not yet broad based. Traders are likely to read this as modestly supportive for the Australian dollar without shifting the near term rate…

The Treasury's language keeps pressure on Tokyo to accelerate policy normalisation, but it stops short of any direct US action, leaving the yen's fate largely in the Bank of Japan's hands. With the currency at a 40-year low and Japanese authorities already signalling readiness to intervene against excessive volatility, traders are likely to stay alert for verbal or actual intervention around key technical levels. The report's finding of substantial yen undervaluation adds to the case for further BOJ hikes, though political uncertainty around the Takaichi government's appetite for tightening complicates the near-term outlook. Any actual intervention would likely trigger sharp, short covering driven moves rather than a sustained trend…

The reporting suggests Iran's military infrastructure is proving more resilient than the US and Israeli campaigns intended, which cuts against the narrative of a decisively weakened Tehran. For oil markets already pricing supply risk from the Strait of Hormuz and now the Red Sea, evidence that Iran retains missile production know-how and repair capacity argues against any near term de-escalation. If Iran's capacity to strike shipping and regional targets is more durable than assumed, the current risk premium in crude may prove sticky rather than transient, and traders are likely to stay cautious on any dips tied to hopes of a swift resolution.

--- Iran is rebuilding faster than expected, undercutting claims that the air campaign delivered…

The planned increase confirms Opec+ is treating its monthly quota schedule as fixed policy rather than a lever to cool prices, even with Brent above $100 and a second chokepoint now under threat. Because Saudi, Iraqi and Kuwaiti output remains constrained by the wider conflict, the nominal hike is unlikely to translate into meaningfully more crude reaching buyers in September. That keeps the physical market tight regardless of the headline figure, and leaves price direction dependent on how the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz situations evolve rather than on anything decided at the August 2 meeting. Traders are likely to treat the announcement as background noise until actual loadings data proves otherwise.

--- Opec+ looks set to keep raising…

• It was an ugly day for US stocks.
• Carney: Canada Focused on a Comprehensive USMCA Deal
• Crude oil futures settled at $92.19 up $5.36 or 6.17%
• AMD and Cerbras form a partnership that makes chips faster and more efficient.
• EU Google Fine Escalates U.S.-EU Trade Tensions
• US Senate blocks resolution curbing Trump's Iran War Powers. Tensions remain high.
• The story gets worse: 30 year mortgage rates reach the highest level since August 2025
• Pres. Trump: Considering a massive attack greater than anything before.
• WSJ Timiraos: Fed is heading into one of the most unpredictable meetings
• Middle East tensions remains high with Iran increasing hostilities
• Canada PM Carney: Will not hesitate to defend its interest in trade war with the US
• ECB's Lagarde: Recent…

The new duties are close in size to the expiring 10 percent global tariff, so the immediate price and trade flow impact should be limited. The more significant signal is durability: basing the levies on Section 301 rather than the emergency powers struck down by the Supreme Court gives the administration a legally sturdier platform to keep tariffs in place indefinitely and adjust them unilaterally. That raises the stakes of further tariff actions flagged for coming months, which trade watchers say could add materially to costs for businesses and consumers. Markets are likely to focus less on today's rates and more on how durable this legal architecture proves under challenge.

--- Trump's new tariffs are pitched as anti forced labor…

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said negotiations with the United States remain active, emphasizing that Canada is pursuing a broader agreement rather than rushing into a limited or partial trade deal. He stressed that discussions have been constructive and centered on Canada's most important economic sectors.

Key comments (reverse chronological order):

• This week's interactions with the United States have shown a high level of engagement and demonstrate the seriousness of the trade relationship.
• Everything is on the table if there is no deal or if the United States follows through on its latest tariff threats.
• Interim USMCA trade agreements mentioned by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are consistent with the structure of the…

Trying to find something positive about the U.S. stock market today is like putting lipstick on a pig—you simply can't dress up a session this ugly.

Stocks were hammered as escalating Middle East tensions fueled a broad risk-off move across financial markets. Oil prices surged more than 5%, adding to inflation concerns, while Treasury yields pushed sharply higher. The 2-year yield climbed to 4.35%, and the 10-year reached 4.70% (highest levels since the 1Q of 2025), with some traders beginning to wonder whether a move toward 5% is no longer out of the question.

The combination of higher oil, rising yields, and growing geopolitical uncertainty proved to be a toxic mix for equities, with sellers firmly in control throughout the trading…

Gold has pulled back from this week's highs near $4,150 to hold just above $4,040, a level that has acted as support since mid July. The retreat comes even as the Middle East conflict widens, underscoring how this cycle's rate and dollar dynamics are overriding the expected "flight to safety" that's been absent this whole war. With Brent above $100 and Fed hike odds for September sitting near 75 percent, real yields are doing more to move gold than the escalation itself. A clean break of the $4,040 support zone would open the door back toward the $4,000 handle, while a hold here keeps the metal rangebound ahead of next week's Fed decision.

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Earlier:

• Why gold is currently neutral to bearish

Gold's overnight fade to test $4,040 support…

I'll get a post up with a preview of the Japanese inflation data separately. The Tokyo area data for June (Tokyo CPI comes out earlier than national CPI) indicated rising underlying inflation pressure:

• Tokyo core-core CPI rose to 1.9% in June as energy-driven inflation began spreading to food and other goods, keeping a July BOJ hike firmly in view.

WTI crude oil futures settled at $92.19, up $5.36 (+6.17%) on the day. The move follows a 9.08% surge on July 13, underscoring the strength of the recent rally as geopolitical tensions continue to fuel buying.

From a technical perspective, the rally pushed the price back above its 100-day moving average at $89.71 for the first time since June 12, when crude was trading near $86.56. Buyers also briefly drove prices above the 50% retracement of the decline from the March 9 high, located at $93.26, with today's high reaching $93.50 before backing off into the close.

Going forward, the 100-day moving average at $89.71 becomes the closest support level. As long as the price remains above it, the technical bias favors further gains. However, a…

AMD unveiled several AI-focused announcements aimed at strengthening its position in the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure market.

• AMD and Cerebras partner on AI inference: AMD announced a collaboration with Cerebras to deliver an ultra-low latency AI inference platform that combines AMD's Helios GPU rack with Cerebras' wafer-scale AI chip.
• Cloud availability: The joint AMD-Cerebras AI inference solution is expected to be available through Cerebras Cloud in the second half of 2026.
• Focus on faster AI inference: AMD CEO Lisa Su said the partnership is designed to provide high-speed AI inference through the Cerebras cloud service, targeting enterprise and hyperscale AI workloads.
• Server CPU leadership claims: AMD said its new EPYC "Venice"…