Market News

The ECB left all three key interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, while President Christine Lagarde emphasized that future policy decisions will remain firmly data dependent. Although recent economic data point to a modest improvement in activity and inflation remains contained beneath the surface, policymakers are increasingly focused on the inflationary risks stemming from higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Key takeaways;

• Rates unchanged: The ECB left policy rates unchanged in a unanimous decision.
• Growth improving modestly: Recent data suggest economic activity has stabilized somewhat, with services recovering and digital sectors—particularly AI-related services—remaining resilient.
• Inflation outlook: Headline…

USTR Greer on the EU Google fine:

• It is clear the EU continues to target the most competitive U.S. companies.
• These actions are creating massive uncertainty for U.S. exports of goods and services to Europe.
• The U.S. is working to resolve concerns over the EU's Digital Markets Act and other actions through responsible, constructive dialogue.
• The EU's recent actions are undermining these efforts.

The European Commission fined Google €890 million ($1.0 billion) for violating the Digital Markets Act (DMA), saying the company unfairly favored its own services in Google Search and restricted app developers from directing users to alternative payment options outside Google Play.

The EU ordered Google to change those practices, while Google said…

Middle East tensions continued to escalate, with additional reports pointing to a deteriorating security situation across the region. Iranian media outlet ISNA reported powerful explosions on Kuwait's Bubiyan Island, while Mehr News said an explosion occurred in Kuwait. Separately, reports indicated an explosion was heard on Iran's Qeshm Island after a missile strike reportedly hit the coastal area near the city of Souza.

On the diplomatic and military front, Israel appears to be preparing for the possibility of further escalation. According to N12, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office will hold a limited security discussion tomorrow afternoon as tensions rise. Meanwhile, Israeli officials told Ynet that they believe the region is "headed…

The 30 year fixed rate mortgage according to Freddie Mac reached 6.58% in the week ending July 23. That is the highest level since August 21, 2025. Last week, the rate was at 6.55%. The good news is a year ago the rate was at 6.74%

• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.96%, up from last week when it averaged 5.93%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.87%. The rate is the highest since June 18, 2025

Affordabilty, remains an issue for new homebuyers. This does not help.

The low 30 year yield was at 5.98% earlier this year.  

For a $500,000 30-year fixed mortgage (principal and interest only, excluding taxes, insurance, HOA, etc.):

Difference:

• Monthly increase: ≈ $195.37
• Annual increase: ≈ $2,345
• Over the full 30 years: ≈…

The broader U.S. stock indices are under heavy selling pressure, with the Nasdaq leading the decline as investors reduce exposure to technology shares. The Nasdaq is down 2.65% to 25,012, while the S&P 500 has fallen 1.5% to 7,388.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is testing a key trendline support on the hourly chart that connects the June 9 and June 26 lows. That support comes in near 7,380. The index briefly traded below it, reaching a session low of 7,376, before rebounding modestly to around 7,392. If sellers can push and hold the price below the trendline, the next downside target comes in a swing area between 7,321 and 7,341.

The Nasdaq has already fallen into an important support zone between 24,913 and 25,109, with today's…

President Trump said in an interview with Axios that he is seriously considering launching a new round of military strikes against Iran that would exceed the scope of Operation Epic Fury, though he stressed that no final decision has been made.

Key takeaways:

• Trump said he is "close to making a decision" on what he described as a "massive attack" that would be larger than previous U.S. operations against Iran.
• He emphasized that the military is prepared but confirmed that no order has been given and no final authorization has been made. U.S. officials echoed that no decision has yet been reached.
• Trump said Israel would join "in two minutes" if asked, but added that the U.S. does not need Israeli participation to carry out military…

In a Wall Street Journal article by Fed follower Nick Timiraos, next week's Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up as one of the most uncertain in years. Timiraos says the decision has become a close call as renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices strengthen the case for another rate hike, while softer inflation data continue to argue for leaving policy unchanged. The biggest wildcard remains new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has repeatedly emphasized restoring price stability but has given no indication which way he is leaning.

The case for holding rates unchanged

• June inflation data came in softer than expected, with underlying price pressures easing.
• Employment data do not show an overheating labor market that would require tighter…

Middle East developments remained in focus as rhetoric from Iran continued to harden while concerns over regional escalation persisted.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to Fars News, said it "will no longer allow the U.S. to replace its oil and ammunition reserves with deceptive ceasefires and then resume," signaling that Tehran remains deeply skeptical of any pause in hostilities that could be used to regroup before military operations resume. The statement reinforces the confrontational tone that has characterized the conflict in recent days.

Meanwhile, regional security concerns increased following reports that Iran sent IRGC commanders and missile-related equipment to Yemen's Houthi movement earlier this…

Canada PM Carney is on the wires saying:

• Canada will not hesitate to defend its interests in a trade war with the US.
• Canada is in a stronger position than it was when the trade war started, and will do whatever is needed to defend itself.

President Trump has significantly escalated trade pressure on Canada with a new package of tariffs scheduled to take effect on August 19 unless the two countries reach a new trade agreement. The administration announced 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian products, including automobiles, dairy products, alcoholic beverages, cement, hockey equipment, and other manufactured goods. The White House argues that Canada continues to maintain unfair trade barriers and discriminatory policies toward U.S.…

As U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with both the 2-year and 10-year yields rising 5–6 basis points, and oil prices surged nearly 5%, the U.S. dollar strengthened broadly, with traders following the shift toward higher yields and safe-haven demand.

• USDJPY: The pair continues to push to fresh four-year highs and is closing in on the 164.00 level. Above that, the next major upside target comes in near 164.50, a level last seen in the 1986 swing highs.
• USDCHF: The pair has climbed to its highest level since July 2025 and is now trading within a key resistance zone between 0.8170 and 0.8214. Also in focus is the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high at 0.82116. Today's high reached 0.8177.
• USDCAD: This is the one major pair…

Nasdaq futures analysis after Alphabet earnings: Bears hold an edge below 29,195

Nasdaq futures are attempting to stabilize near 29,100 after failing above 29,300, but the recovery is not yet strong enough to reverse the short-term bearish structure. The immediate decision zone is 29,020-29,195. A sustained break below 29,020 would favor another decline, while acceptance above 29,195 would begin a recovery that needs stronger confirmation above 29,220-29,260.

Key takeaways from today’s Nasdaq futures analysis

• Short-term bias: Bearish, but approaching important support.
• Nasdaq prediction score:-3 out of 10, with medium confidence.
• Bullish threshold:29,195, with stronger confirmation above 29,220-29,260.
• Bearish threshold:29,020,…

The USD is moving higher as yields continue to move higher. The 10 year yield is trading at the highest level since January 2025.  The 2 year is at the highest level since February 2025.  Crude oil prices are also an influence with the price moving above $91 for the first time since June 11. 

• 2 year 4.332%, up 3 basis points
• 5 year 4.443%, up 3.6 basis points
• 10 year 4.693%, up 3.6 basis points
• 30 year 5.176%, up 2.9 basis points.

In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - to kickstart the North American session.  What is the bias, the risk and the targets for each. 

The ECB rate decision is at 8:15 AM with no change expected.  At 8:30 AM, the weekly initial jobless…