Market News

The major stock indices are under pressure in premarket trading. The features are currently implying:

• Dow industrial average -626 points
• S&P index -92 points
• NASDAQ index -508 points.

A number of big name companies announced after the close yesterday:

• Alphabet announce earnings last night and there shares are down -5.4% in premarket trading.
• Tesla shares are down -8.05%
• ServiceNow is up 5%
• IBM shares are down 1.80%
• Texas Instruments are down 4.82%. 

This morning others reported including:

• Nokia -0.78%
• American Airlines -5.0%
• Blackstone Group -0.19%
• Lockheed Martin +5.76%

In the Middle East is there is reports that a Air Force F-16 fighter jet has taken off from a base in the Middle East. CENTCOM says that US forces remain vigilant.

The Iranian…

• Deposit rate 2.25% vs 2.25% prior
• Refinancing rate 2.40% vs 2.40% prior
• Lending rate 2.65% vs 2.65% prior
• The outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the June Eurosystem staff projections
• The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects
• The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.
• Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict
• It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance
• The Governing Council is…

23 July 2026

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the June Eurosystem staff projections and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in the Middle East. Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out. The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects. The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.

With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well…

To watch the press conference CLICK HERE. 

The EURUSD is trading at 1.1379 at the start of the press conference. 

• Recent data points to some improvement in economic activity.
• Activity and services partly recovered.
• Digital services robust, partly on AI.
• Firms, households expected labor market to remain weaker than before conflict.
• Indicators suggest economic activity remain modest

• Prior month 0.5% revised to 0.4%
• Retail sales for May versus .0% expected
• Prior month Ex Autos +0.1% revised to 0.0%
• Retail Sales 1.2% ex Auto vs 1.4% expected
• sales were up in all nine subsectors, led by increases in gasoline stations and fuel vendors
• Core retail sales excluding gasoline and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers or up 0.9% versus 0.7% last month
• advanced June retail sales suggests that sales increased 0.4% in June

•  

• Prior 208K (revised to 209K)
• Continuing claims 1796K vs 1807K expected
• Prior 1805K (revised to 1798K)

President Trump is posting on TruthSocial a warning to Iran as a result of the attacks by the Houthis on Saturday Arabian ships last night.  He tells them that they are responsible. Here is the post:

The tensions continue to build. Crude oil is trading near $91. The NASDAQ is down -364 point in premarket trading

Headlines:

• WTI crude oil hits $90 for the first time in six weeks
• USD/JPY at 40-year high as Middle East tensions and hawkish Fed bets drive breakout
• Alphabet earnings reaction cools an otherwise selective earnings season
• ECB preview: High bar for the ECB to out-hawk the market; September hike likely if inflation surprises to the upside
• ECB to pause today before delivering next and final rate hike in September - Deutsche
• French business climate brightens a little more as rebound extends into July
• China sends a clear message with live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait

Market update:

• Brent crude up 5.1% to $98.91, WTI crude up 4.7% to $90.95
• European indices fall, DAX down by 0.7%
• S&P 500 futures down 0.6%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%
• USD leads, NZD lags on…

It's looking like it will be a more sluggish start to the day for US equities in the session ahead. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures also down 0.2% as we see a more tepid mood ahead of the opening bell later.

Things were looking fine yesterday before some late selling hit to drag major indices lower by the time we got to the close. Naturally, heightened tensions in the Middle East did not help. However, investors were arguably also nervous about big tech earnings and rightfully so.

After the close, we saw Tesla and Alphabet (Google) both report earnings and they were fairly disappointing albeit for different reasons.

While delivering a beat on revenue, Tesla's profit margins got squeezed hard amid price cuts and also on…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar started to regain ground in recent days as the prolonged US-Iran conflict and surging oil prices trumped the hopes for a quick de-escalation. The situation in the Middle East is getting even worse as the Houthis started to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea. There’s still no end in sight to this crisis and the risk sentiment remains negative.

Given this backdrop, we saw a hawkish repricing across the board with the total Fed tightening now standing around 43 bps by year-end, compared to 32 bps last week after the soft US inflation data. The chances for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting in July have also risen back to 33%.

The…

The technical chart is definitely looking ominous now as a firm break above $90 could easily light up the path towards $100 next. With the US continuing to launch strikes at Iran, we're also seeing Iran step up attacks across the region and not just at US bases in the Gulf. The sporadic and spread out nature of Iran's attacks mean that nothing is really safe in the region and they are also still keeping the Strait of Hormuz in de facto closure.

To make matters worse now, there is the potential for shipping disruptions in the Red Sea too. That as the Houthis are now teaming up with Iran to stifle Saudi vessels that are looking to transit to/from the Jeddah port. Troubling times.

[WTI crude oil daily chart ($/bbl)]

This is all leading to…

The ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged today while reaffirming a data dependent and/or meeting-by-meeting approach. There shouldn't be much else to it honestly.

The statement language is expected to remain the same and so the only thing to watch for is Lagarde's press conference. But even then, she will just reaffirm potential upside risks to the inflation outlook as well as downside risks to the economic outlook. I wouldn't expect much more than that.

The inflation numbers in June pretty much gave policymakers what they needed to pause in July. As such, the scrutiny on policy setting will be deferred to the September meeting next. And that is when Deutsche anticipates the ECB to deliver their next and final rate hike. The firm notes…