Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar started to regain ground in recent days as the prolonged US-Iran conflict and surging oil prices trumped the hopes for a quick de-escalation. The situation in the Middle East is getting even worse as the Houthis started to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea. There’s still no end in sight to this crisis and the risk sentiment remains negative.

Given this backdrop, we saw a hawkish repricing across the board with the total Fed tightening now standing around 43 bps by year-end, compared to 32 bps last week after the soft US inflation data. The chances for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting in July have also risen back to 33%.

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.68%, Shanghai Composite down 0.19% Hang Seng up 1.33% ASX up 0.60%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,127.12 (-0.60%) Silver at $60.015 (-0.46%), Brent Oil at 96.10 (2.16%), WTI Oil at 88.34 (1.75%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.661, UK 10-year yield at 5.0369, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1795

• (USD) Crude Oil Inventories  2.0M  to -2.0M expected

U.S. equity futures edged lower Wednesday night as investors assessed corporate earnings, artificial intelligence spending and rising oil prices. Dow futures slipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Alphabet shares dropped 3% after the company raised its 2026…

• Iran begging us every day to make a deal
• Looks like Iran not ready to make a deal, they will pay the price
• Price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses
• Iran probably not ready to do a deal, but will be probably soon
• Despite Iran's bravado, they are suffering tremendously and will continue to suffer
• Think they will be ready for a deal soon
• US is seeking a denuclearised Iran

The remarks come as the US and Iran continue exchanging military strikes following the collapse of the ceasefire earlier this month. The US has carried out nightly airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, while Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks against US-linked assets across the region and has continued threatening…

With much focus on the bond market again this week, we're seeing UK yields push up significantly today. 10-year gilt yields have now climbed by over 4 bps to 5.08% - its highest in over two months. For some context, yields were only at 4.72% at the end of June.

The push higher comes as we're seeing inflation expectations build up amid higher energy prices, with that translating to a more hawkish BOE outlook as well.

As things stand, traders are now pricing in ~48 bps of rate hikes from the BOE by year-end. And that is quite a step up from ~20 bps a month ago and even from the ~36 bps priced in last week.

The obvious factor as what is also affecting the global bond market and also major central bank expectations is renewed tensions between US…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 23 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

During today’s Asian session, the primary market-moving event was the Australian June Labour Market Report, which came in significantly stronger than expectations. Australia added 76.3K jobs, far exceeding the market forecast of 16.4K, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%, matching expectations. The robust employment growth reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may maintain a hawkish stance or consider further policy tightening if inflation remains persistent. The stronger Australian employment figures triggered broad buying of the Australian Dollar (AUD).

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s…

US Stocks Slip Ahead of Key Earnings – Nasdaq down 0.6%

Global markets traded cautiously overnight as investors weighed the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East against the prospect of another busy earnings session and a significant day for central bank policy. While equities finished modestly lower, commodity markets remained firmly bid as geopolitical risks continued to dominate investor sentiment.

On Wall Street, the major indices closed mixed to lower. The Dow Jones was virtually unchanged, slipping just 0.01% to finish at 52,218, while the broader S&P 500 eased 0.14% to 7,498. Technology stocks again came under pressure, with the Nasdaq declining 0.57% to close at 25,690 as investors continued to reduce exposure to…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 23 July 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled another strong rally in crude oil, increasing concerns that higher energy prices could keep global inflation elevated and delay future interest rate cuts. This supported oil-linked assets such as the Canadian dollar, boosted safe-haven demand for gold, and lifted Treasury yields, while the U.S. dollar edged lower after its recent advance. Equity markets were mixed as investors balanced rising energy costs against optimism surrounding upcoming Big Tech earnings, leaving overall market sentiment cautious ahead of Thursday’s key releases, including Australian employment data, the ECB policy decision, and U.S.…

The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, while reiterating that it remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the war and that it will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. The central bank will not release the macroeconomic projections at this meeting, so the market focus will be mainly on President Lagarde's press conference for clues on whether policymakers are preparing for another rate hike in September.

The case for a pause has strengthened over recent weeks. Eurozone inflation moderated in June, services inflation surprised to the downside, wage growth continued to soften, and inflation expectations remained relatively well anchored. Business surveys have…

Alphabet shares traded near $333.76 following Wednesday night’s earnings, about 2.4% below the regular-session close of $341.91. The decline adds another negative mega-cap reaction to an earnings season that has become more selective, rather than uniformly bearish.

The important distinction for traders is that Alphabet’s decline appears more significant because of the company’s enormous market capitalization than because of the percentage move itself. Even a relatively contained fall in Alphabet can weigh heavily on the Nasdaq and on market-cap-weighted earnings sentiment.

In my technical chart analysis, I'm watching gold futures remaining stuck between 4,116 support and 4,145 resistance, where price continues to churn around developing…

• July business confidence 97 vs 95 expected
• Prior 94; revised to 95

The French business climate brightened a little in July, keeping with the rebound in June to move closer to the long-term average of 100. As a reminder, the last time the French business confidence index touched that level was all the way back in May 2024.

The latest reading comes amid an improvement in the business climate for both the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as in retail trade. The more detailed breakdown for the report is as per the following:

• Manufacturing confidence 101 vs 100 prior
• Services confidence 98 vs 96 prior
• Retail trade 99 vs 91 prior
• Wholesale trade 95 vs 97 prior
• Employment 98 vs 98 prior

Overall, it points to a modest pick up in overall…