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• High Yield 4.290%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.291%
• Tail -0.1 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.52X which is near the six month average of 2.48X
• Directs 11.2% much lower than the average of 27.5%
• Indirects 78.39% much higher than the average of 61.2%
• Dealers 10.42%. Lower than the average of 11.3%

AUCTION GRADE:C+

The WI level at the time of the auction was 4.291%. The seven year note was auctioned off at a high yield of 4.290% just below that level. The bid to cover came in near the average. The mix however was very much skewed toward international buyers. They took a whopping 78.4% (well above the 61.2 average), while domestic buyers only took 11.2% (below the average of 27.5).

The numbers from the buyers were a bit mixed up, but overall…

The weekly EIA inventory data shows:

• crude oil inventories -3.327 million versus -4.143 million estimate
• distillates -2.107 million versus -1.024 million estimate.
• Gasoline -2.572 million versus -2.412 million estimate.
• Cushing -2.794 million versus -1.604 million last week
• refinery utilization 2.9% versus 0.7%

The private data released late yesterday showed:

Crude oil is trading up $1.15 at $89.82. The high for the day was at $92.52. The low was at $87.11.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum status report is one of the most closely watched releases in the oil market because it provides a snapshot of U.S. supply, demand, and storage conditions. Released each Wednesday (unless delayed by holidays), the report details…

There are increasing reports suggesting progress toward a cease-fire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. According to multiple sources, the deal would be implemented in two phases, beginning with the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU). Reports indicate that Pakistan is expected to witness the signing ceremony.

Reuters is reporting that negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day extension of the cease-fire framework, although President Trump still needs to give final approval before the deal can move forward. Earlier reports suggested that neither President Trump nor Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had formally approved the agreement. Fox News is also reporting similar developments, noting that a tentative…

• Prior month 0.682 million revised to 0.663M
• New home sales 0.622M vs 0.665M estimate.
• New Homes sales down -6.2% vs +3.4% last month

Details for the month:

• April new home sales: 622K annualized vs 663K in March
• Month-over-month change: -6.2%
• Year-over-year change: -11.3% vs 701K in April 2025

Inventories move higher

• Homes for sale inventory: 489K vs 481K prior
• Inventory change from March: +1.7%
• Inventory change from year ago: -2.2%
• Months’ supply: 9.4 months vs 8.7 months prior
• Months’ supply vs year ago: 8.6 months
• Higher supply suggests homes are taking longer to sell

Prices move higher

• Median sales price: $422,500 vs $391,100 prior
• Median price month-over-month: +8.0%
• Median price year-over-year: +2.2%
• Average sales price: $508,800 vs…

Axios reports the U.S. and Iran have reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend the ceasefire and begin formal nuclear negotiations.

• The agreement still requires final approval from President Trump, who reportedly asked for several days to review the proposal.
• U.S. officials say Iranian negotiators indicated they received approval from senior leadership and were prepared to sign.
• The proposed deal would mark the biggest diplomatic breakthrough since the conflict began, although a broader permanent agreement would still require lengthy negotiations.
• The MOU would guarantee “unrestricted” shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including:
  • No tolls
  • No harassment of commercial ships
  • Removal of Iranian mines…

New York Fed president Williams is speaking:

• higher productivity rates can raise real interest rates.
• Shifts in productivity are hard to spot in real time.

Williams does not comment on near term policy outlook

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Treasury Secretary Bessentt is announcing some economic sanctions against Iran in what he terms the economic fury campaign against the Iranians.

• Only a satisfactory outcome in negotiations will and Iran's downward spiral economically .
• The U.S. Treasury will sanction Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority
• We also shut down Iranian airlines access to landing spots, refueling, and ticket sales

Do the economic sanctions lead to a framework for an agreement or does it lead to more bombing? That remains the fence the market is sitting on with regard to the war in Iran.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Iran says continues US strikes are violations of the ceasefire
• Iran maintains position that all frozen assets must be released without conditions
• Gold continues to slide amid lack of US-Iran breakthrough and hawkish Fed risks
• Mild dollar selling expected going into month-end fix - Credit Agricole
• ECB policymaker Lane says second-round effects would persist even after shock reversal
• ECB policymaker Stournaras confirms a rate hike in June is the most likely development
• ECB April meeting account notes that upside risks to inflation had intensified
• Euro area economic sentiment picks back up a little in May but headwinds linger

Markets:

• WTI crude up 3% to $91.37
• Stocks move down, DAX and CAC 40 both lower by 0.5% on the day
• S&P 500 futures down…

IndexStart DateClose Only DateExpiry DateContract MonthDXY_M612/03/202611/06/202612/06/2026JuneCCQ2625/05/202627/07/202629/07/2026AugustVIX_M615/05/202612/06/202615/06/2026JuneVIX_N612/06/202619/07/202620/07/2026July

CFDs on Commodities Expiry Information:

CommodityStart DateClose Only DateExpiry DateContract…