Market News

There are a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.1400 and 1.1450 levels. They don't quite tie to any technical significance but once again could just act as bookends for price action in the session ahead.

The dollar is a little softer on the day, giving up some of the gains from yesterday. But at the balance, higher Treausry yields will continue to underpin the greenback so there is some counter-balance even if the dollar does drop further from here.

As things stand, US-Iran developments remain the key risk and we're now starting to see potential for the global energy market disruption to spread to the Red Sea. That will just serve to exacerbate tighter…

Gold price analysis: Futures remain trapped between 4,116 support and 4,145 resistance

Gold futures prediction score: -1

Gold futures are trading near 4,124 at the time of this analysis after failing to sustain Wednesday’s advance toward 4,171.

The broader recovery from below 4,000 remains visible, but the immediate structure has weakened. Price has fallen back beneath the developing VWAP and is rotating inside a compact value area between approximately 4,119 and 4,133.

That leaves gold in a short-term balance zone. A move within this area offers limited directional conviction, so traders may prefer to wait for price to leave the range before committing more aggressively.

Gold tradeCompass summary

• Bullish above: 4,145
• Bullish targets: 4,152,…

China has announced that it has begun live-fire drills in some ‌parts of the Taiwan Strait. The drills will run for two days and will be from 2200 GMT ​to 1000 GMT each day around the Dongshan Island, ‌bordering ⁠the province of Guangdong.

The timing of this move is very much all about sending a clear signal. It comes just a day after talks between US secretary of state Rubio and China foreign minister Wang Yi in Manila yesterday.

For some context, Rubio said that the US opposes China's deployment of coast guard vessels near Taiwan and also criticised the recent aggressive encroachments by Chinese coast guard ships into waters near Taiwan.

In his words, China was "undermining the spirit of strategic stability" while acknowledging that the…

Nasdaq futures analysis after Alphabet earnings: Bears hold an edge below 29,195

Nasdaq futures are attempting to stabilize near 29,100 after failing above 29,300, but the recovery is not yet strong enough to reverse the short-term bearish structure. The immediate decision zone is 29,020-29,195. A sustained break below 29,020 would favor another decline, while acceptance above 29,195 would begin a recovery that needs stronger confirmation above 29,220-29,260.

Key takeaways from today’s Nasdaq futures analysis

• Short-term bias: Bearish, but approaching important support.
• Nasdaq prediction score:-3 out of 10, with medium confidence.
• Bullish threshold:29,195, with stronger confirmation above 29,220-29,260.
• Bearish threshold:29,020,…

The survey was conducted on 13-21 July, so it will have accounted for the latest US-Iran developments for the most part. These are some of the key findings:

• 83 of 87 economists expect BOJ to leave interest rates unchanged this quarter
• 75 of 87 economists expect BOJ to deliver another 25 bps rate hike to 1.25% by end-December
• 27 of 51 economists expect that rate hike to be in December, while 18 of 51 economists expect a move in October
• 23 of 32 economists said BOJ was not moving too slowly on rate hikes
• 23 of 29 economists believe that USD/JPY around 160 is "too weak" relative to Japan's economic fundamentals

I think the expectation of the next move by the BOJ is a fair one, largely keeping with market pricing as well. As things stand, traders…

The rally in Korean and Japanese equities underscores how directly Asian chipmakers are now leveraged to the US hyperscaler capex cycle, with Google's raised full year spending guidance validating expectations that AI infrastructure demand still has further to run. SK Hynix and Samsung's outsized gains point to markets pricing sustained strength in memory and advanced chip demand tied to data centre build outs, a read-through likely to extend to other regional semiconductor suppliers in coming sessions. South Korea's GDP beat adds a domestic growth tailwind on top of the AI driven rally, though it also raises the odds of further Bank of Korea tightening, a dynamic that could complicate the equity story if higher rates start to weigh on…

• US deploys B-1 bomber against Iran in biggest strike escalation yet
• Kospi jumps 3%, Nikkei rises as Google's AI capex boost lifts chip stocks
• Australia jobs smash forecasts, keeping RBA's August hike door (very slightly) open
• AUD/USD has jumped higher after the strong jobs report, biggest job gain in a year
• Australian June 2026 jobs report: Unemployment rate 4.4% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.4%)
• Oil hits six-week high as US strikes Iran, Houthis blockade Saudi ports
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7906 (vs. estimate at 6.7712)
• Iran says tanker on fire, Strait of Hormuz
• US Trade Rep. Greer eyes interim US deals with Canada, Mexico by year end
• US surges forces to Middle East as Iran war options widen. Extra $73bln in funding for Iran war
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/us-military-confirm-they-have-begun-a-12th-consecutive-night-of-strikes-on-iran"…

The use of a B-1 bomber, the first since fighting with Iran resumed, marks a clear step up in the scale of US strikes and signals Washington may be preparing for a broader campaign rather than the more limited strikes seen in recent days. That escalation risk, layered on top of an unresolved standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh Houthi attack on Saudi shipping, keeps a substantial geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices and raises the risk of a sharper supply disruption across two major chokepoints at once. Ongoing Qatari mediated talks aimed at reopening the strait offer a potential de-escalation path, but reports that Iran has not accepted the latest proposal suggest markets should not expect a near term resolution. With…

The blowout employment number and jump in participation gives the RBA scope to keep its hawkish bias alive without committing to actual policy tightening, and markets reacted accordingly, with the Australian dollar jumping and short term yields rising around 5bp on the data. The move in the yield reflects a modest repricing of hike risk into the August 11-12 meeting, though the quarterly average unemployment rate of 4.4%, still above the RBA's own 4.2% forecast, alongside underemployment and underutilisation both sitting at multi-month highs, complicates a clean hawkish read. On balance, another 25bp hike in August looks a lower probability outcome than the report's headline strength might suggest, given the RBA has already held steady in…

Australia Employment Change Jun: 76.3K

• expected 15.0K, prior 40.3K

Unemployment Rate: 4.4%

• expected 4.4%, prior 4.4%

Full Time Employment Change: 29.3K

• prior 5.2K

Part Time Employment Change: 47.0K

• prior 35.2K

Participation Rate: 67.0%

• expected 66.7%, prior 66.7%

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The data will be welcomed by the RBA, it keeps the door open to further rate hikes but doesn not guarantee them. I doubt they'll hike at thier next meeting:

Australian June 2026 jobs report, just the numbers here on this post.

A very strong job added number, tempered somewhat by most being part-time. 

I'll have more to come on this separately.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• prior close 6.7750

Injects 204bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%.