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Oil's push to a fresh six week high reflects a rapidly escalating risk premium as two of the world's most important chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, both face active threats to shipping in the same session. Iran's claim of control over the Hormuz route, and its warning that tankers cannot pass without coordination, raises the prospect of a de facto disruption to a corridor carrying a substantial share of global crude and LNG flows, even before any confirmed stoppage in actual throughput. The Houthi blockade declaration against Saudi Arabia adds a second, largely independent threat vector in the Red Sea, compounding insurance and freight costs for tankers regardless of which route they attempt. The build in US crude…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say one of three oil tankers caught fire after explosion south of Strait of Hormuz

• Say two other tankers turned back after incident south of Strait of Hormuz
• Say no tanker will enter or leave Strait of Hormuz without coordination with Iran

Earlier:

• Oil: Houthis ferocious strikes on two Saudi oil tankers
• US surges forces to Middle East

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Signs of a delayed, piecemeal approach to USMCA renegotiation add to the uncertainty already weighing on North American trade flows, particularly for autos, steel and aluminum exporters awaiting relief from Section 232 tariffs. Markets are likely to view an interim deal with Mexico as more achievable near term, given Mexico's direct engagement in bilateral talks, while a genuine breakthrough with Canada looks harder to square with Trump's freshly imposed 50% tariff on a swathe of Canadian goods this same week. That escalation raises real questions over how credible Greer's timeline for a Canada arrangement by year end actually is, and whether Ottawa's exclusion from the Mexico talks leaves it with little leverage to negotiate better…

A steady headline unemployment rate would offer only limited reassurance to the RBA given both banks' emphasis on broader signs of labour market slack building beneath the surface. Westpac's focus on a corrected underemployment series showing a material rise, rather than the previously reported sideways trend, points to a softer underlying jobs picture than earlier data suggested. CBA's flagged risk of a downside surprise to 4.3% could briefly support the case for a more dovish RBA reading, though both banks agree the medium term trend is toward gradually higher unemployment.

For the Australian dollar, a steady headline print is likely to be a non-event, but any softer than expected outcome, particularly a dip toward 4.3% or weaker…

The attack marks a significant escalation in the Houthis' campaign against Saudi shipping and threatens to further disrupt tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. A declared closure of the strait to Saudi flagged tankers, combined with reports that nearly ten vessels have already diverted, points to rising freight and insurance costs and could prompt shippers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. The threat to strike Saudi oil refineries directly raises the stakes considerably, given the kingdom's role as the world's largest oil exporter, and is likely to add a fresh risk premium to crude prices. Markets will be watching closely for any Saudi response and whether…

The military buildup raises the risk of further escalation in a conflict that has already disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil flows before the war began. Continued Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the strait, combined with Houthi threats in the Red Sea, keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices and elevate freight and insurance costs for shipping through the region. Any move toward strikes on Iranian infrastructure, as floated by President Trump, would likely trigger a sharper reaction in crude markets given the potential for direct retaliation against energy assets or further disruption to the strait. Congressional approval of additional war…

Oil remains underpinned by ongoing escalation in the Middle East. 

• UK military report yet another tanker has been struck, this time in the Red Sea

Centcom announcement:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Paulson's comments add a prominent voice to the case for continued gold strength, reinforcing a narrative already supported by sustained central bank buying and diversification away from the US dollar. His view that gold is emerging as a de facto reserve currency could encourage further institutional allocation, particularly among reserve managers looking to reduce dollar concentration. The remarks also follow gold's push above $5,000 an ounce and its subsequent pullback, framing the recent retracement as a pause within a longer uptrend rather than a shift in trend. High profile bullish commentary of this kind tends to support sentiment among gold investors and can influence positioning in both bullion and mining equities.

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Gold surged…

Yemen said it would be attacking Saudi vessels. And here we are. Report via UKMTO. 

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The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) is a Royal Navy-run maritime security centre, based in Bahrain, that has served as a trusted authority in the maritime security sector for more than 25 years, helping protect crucial trade routes by providing mariners, shipping companies, and regional authorities with essential, verified and corroborated security information. Its remit centres on the Middle East and Indian Ocean region, spanning key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the wider Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Oman. UKMTO's core function is acting as a liaison between merchant shipping and naval and…

The labour market report from Australia features today. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at a low, by historical standards, 4.4%. Its risen over past months as the three Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes in succession have weighed on jobs growth, at the margin, but unless its some sort of blow up higher, or jobs added shunt substantially into the negative, the data today is unlikely to impact the RBA, or AUD, too much. 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Formalising nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia extends Washington's strategic footprint in the Gulf and could reshape the kingdom's longer term energy mix by adding a civilian nuclear component alongside its oil and gas base. The agreement is likely to be watched closely by regional rivals and nonproliferation advocates given Saudi Arabia's stated ambitions around uranium enrichment. For oil markets, the deal reinforces the broader US-Saudi strategic relationship at a time when Gulf energy and security ties remain closely linked to production policy within OPEC+. Congressional review introduces an element of political risk to the timeline, with lawmakers likely to scrutinise the safeguards provisions before the partnership can move…