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Formalising nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia extends Washington's strategic footprint in the Gulf and could reshape the kingdom's longer term energy mix by adding a civilian nuclear component alongside its oil and gas base. The agreement is likely to be watched closely by regional rivals and nonproliferation advocates given Saudi Arabia's stated ambitions around uranium enrichment. For oil markets, the deal reinforces the broader US-Saudi strategic relationship at a time when Gulf energy and security ties remain closely linked to production policy within OPEC+. Congressional review introduces an element of political risk to the timeline, with lawmakers likely to scrutinise the safeguards provisions before the partnership can move…

• US stock indices give up their gains and close lower on the day
• Alphabet beats Q2 estimates as cloud revenue surges and Gemini usage grows
• Tesla, Alphabet, ServiceNow, IBM, Texas Instruments all report after the close
• Iran broadens its threats as the rhetoric turns increasingly dangerous
• ECB expected to hold, but EURUSD is nearing a breaking point after being confined.
• US has informed Israel of its intention to use bombers in bombing Iran
• US treasury auctions off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 5.163%
• The major European indices close higher the 3rd day in a row.
• Microsoft: AI adoption is "accelerating at an incredible pace", but stock is not impressed.
• USTR Greer testifies in the Senate: We are moving with all due speed on USMCA…

The earnings miss on margin compression could weigh on sentiment in early trading, even as the revenue beat and a narrower than expected cash burn offer investors some offset. A gross margin of 16.8%, well below the 19.4% forecast, is likely to renew scrutiny of pricing and cost pressure in the core automotive business. Progress on Cybercab, the Robotaxi rollout and the Optimus production timeline may bolster the longer term growth narrative that underpins Tesla's valuation beyond traditional vehicle sales. A return to growth in energy storage and continued expansion in FSD subscriptions could help balance near term concerns over profitability.

--- Tesla's profit slipped on thinner margins, but revenue growth, narrower cash burn and…

The major US stock indices gave up their gains and are closing lower on the day:

• Dow industrial average fell -6.0 points or -0.01% to 52224.23. The index was up 286.02 points at the session highs.
• S&P index fell -10.24 points or -0.14% to 7498.97. At session highs the index was up 16.73 points.
• NASDAQ index fell -146.30 points or -0.57% to 25690.90. At session highs, the index was up 4.10 points,
• The Russell 2000 fell -27.45 points or -0.92% to 2959.93.

After the close, Tesla, Alphabet, ServiceNow, IBM and Texas Instruments all reported. 

• Alphabet (GOOGL): EPS $9.11 vs. $2.88 est. (Beat); Revenue $119.8B vs. $117.0B est. (Beat) — The EPS was influence by one time gains. The stock is  up 0.68% after the close. 
• Tesla (TSLA): Adjusted EPS $0.33…

The scale of Alphabet's earnings beat, particularly the EPS figure coming in well above consensus, is likely to support the stock in early trade and reinforce confidence in the durability of the core advertising franchise. Cloud's outperformance against forecasts will be read as evidence that Alphabet is converting AI investment into monetisable growth rather than pure cost, a key concern for investors watching capex trajectories across the sector. That said, the increase in capital expenditure versus expectations may temper enthusiasm among investors focused on near term margin discipline, even as it signals confidence in future demand. The advertising and YouTube beats suggest the core business remains resilient despite ongoing…

After the close, Tesla, Alphabet, ServiceNow, IBM, and Texas Instruments will all report their earnings.

Consensus estimates for the stocks after today’s close:

• Alphabet/Google (GOOGL): EPS $2.88; revenue $117.1 billion.
• Tesla (TSLA): Adjusted EPS $0.53; revenue $26.4 billion.
• ServiceNow (NOW): Adjusted EPS $0.86; revenue $3.93 billion.
• IBM (IBM): Adjusted EPS $2.94; revenue $17.42 billion. IBM has already indicated that results would be near these levels.
• Texas Instruments (TXN): EPS $1.93; revenue $5.24 billion.

Estimates can vary slightly depending on the data provider and whether EPS is reported on a GAAP or adjusted basis.

In the video above, I outline the key technical levels in play and explain why those levels are so key for…

Threats are broadening beyond military targets, raising concerns about energy infrastructure, shipping, and regional stability.

Both sides continue to ratchet up the rhetoric, with the warnings becoming increasingly broader and more forceful. Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) warned that if its bridges or power plants are attacked, it would retaliate by cutting electricity supplies to U.S. regional allies, expanding the potential battlefield to critical civilian infrastructure.

The maritime front is also heating up. The IRGC Navy claimed it has "absolute control" over the entrance and exit to the Strait of Hormuz and warned commercial vessels against attempting alternative shipping routes, saying they would be "unsafe and dangerous" and…

The ECB is widely expected to leave all three key interest rates unchanged at tomorrow's meeting. Markets are pricing in a very high probability that the deposit rate remains at 2.25%, with the focus shifting almost entirely to President Christine Lagarde's press conference and any clues about September.

What is expected?

Decision (8:15 AM ET / 12:15 GMT)

• Deposit Facility Rate: 2.25% (expected unchanged)
• Main Refinancing Rate: 2.40% (expected unchanged)
• Marginal Lending Facility: 2.65% (expected unchanged)

Why is the ECB expected to pause rates?

• Inflation has eased from earlier highs but remains above the ECB's 2% target.
• Growth across the euro area remains sluggish.
• The recent surge off the declines in oil prices due to increased Middle…

Israel sources are saying that: 

• US has informed Israel of its intention to use bombers in bombing Iran.

Can anyone keep a secret. Yesterday, Trump said that they would bomb the underground "Pickaxe Mountain" nuclear-related facility "very soon," portraying it as a major remaining military objective.

Meanwhile Iran's top negotiator is posting on X

It sounds like an "I lose, you lose" scenario. 

• High yield 5.163%
• WI level at the time of the auction 5.158%.
• Tail 0.5 basis points versus six month average of -0.3 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.64X versus average of 2.66X
• Directs 10.21% vs average of 23.9%
• Indirects 69.12% vs average of 65.9%
• Dealers 14.67% vs average of 10.1%

Auction Grade: D+(almost a D)

The positive tail, the domestic demand being much weaker than average and the dealer amount being higher are all negatives.  The international demand was marginally better. The Bid to cover was near the average.  

Key Components of a U.S. Treasury Auction

• High Yield (Stop-Out Yield): Final accepted yield.
  • Lower than expected = Strong demand
  • Higher than expected = Weak demand
• Tail (vs. When-Issued Yield): Most watched metric.
  • Through…

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury Department and the IRS are reviewing a number of Wall Street tax products and strategies that may exploit the federal tax code. While emphasizing that the administration welcomes innovation in financial markets, Bessent said tax policy should reward productive investment—not abusive financial engineering—and warned investors to be wary of products that appear "too good to be true." Treasury officials indicated they are examining strategies that may cross the line into abusive tax avoidance, signaling increased oversight of sophisticated tax-driven investment structures.

The comments build on a broader message from IRS leadership in recent months. IRS CEO Frank Bisignano has reiterated…

European equity markets finished the session with another broad-based advance as investors remained comfortable adding risk. Spain and Italy once again led the major indices, while Germany, France, and the UK also posted solid gains. The positive tone carried into the North American session, although US gains have been more modest as traders balance stronger equities against another move higher in Treasury yields.

🇩🇪 Germany (EU40): 25,155.42, +144.07 (+0.58%) 🇫🇷 France (CAC 40): 8,437.90, +74.75 (+0.89%) 🇬🇧 UK (UK 100): 10,716.98, +131.07 (+1.24%) 🇪🇸 Spain (IBEX 35): 19,571.30, +191.50 (+0.99%) 🇮🇹 Italy (FTSE MIB): 52,792.03, +506.95 (+0.97%)

The UK's FTSE 100 was the standout performer with a gain of 1.24%, while Spain's IBEX 35 and…