Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Hawkish RBNZ hold at 2.25% that sparked a NZD recovery from multi-year lows, Australia’s softer-than-expected 4.2% CPI that tempered AUD upside, and falling oil prices ($99.06 Brent, $93.05 WTI) on U.S.-Iran ceasefire hopes, while AI-driven tech buying propelled the Nikkei to ~66,000 and the Kospi nearly 5% to record highs, making NZD, AUD, crude oil, AI chip equities (Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Samsung), and gold the most headline-impacted instruments.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Markets are reacting to stronger-than-expected U.S. durable goods and unexpectedly low jobless claims, which could reinforce Fed hawkishness,…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.13%, Shanghai Composite down 1.11% Hang Seng down 0.80% ASX up 0.19%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,536.76 (0.04%) Silver at $77.000 (0.51%), Brent Oil at $95.14 (-1.58%), WTI Oil at $92.18 (-1.79%)8
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.470, UK 10-year yield at 4.8780, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9836

• (USD) CB Consumer Confidence  93.1  to 91.9   expected

Asia-Pacific markets climbed Wednesday, with Japan and South Korea’s benchmark indexes reaching fresh highs as investors monitored recent U.S. military action in Iran, the fragile Washington-Tehran ceasefire and hopes that diplomatic negotiations could still produce a deal.

Japan’s Nikkei 225…

French consumer confidence tumbled lower in the latest month to 82, that being the weakest such reading since March 2023. Since the start of the US-Iran conflict, consumer confidence has fallen by 9 points in the past three months. That marks the steepest decline over the same period since 2022.

The details reveal a further decline across major sub-indices. Of note, the reading on the expected financial situation falls to -20 - also the lowest since March 2023. Then, there was also a steep decline in the reading for opportunity to make major purchases. That fell five points to -40, straying further away from the long-term average of -16.

The only bit of good news is that employment conditions held steadier while the outlook on future…

US Stocks Push to Fresh Highs as Markets Look Through Middle East Risks – S&P up 0.6%
US equity markets moved higher overnight, with technology stocks leading the gains as investors continued to cautiously price in the possibility that tensions in the Middle East may remain contained despite another volatile round of geopolitical headlines. The S&P 500 rose 0.61% to close at a fresh record high of 7,519, while the Nasdaq outperformed again, climbing 1.19% to 26,656. The Dow Jones lagged slightly, slipping 0.23% to finish at 50,461.

That improvement in risk appetite was reflected in bond markets, where Treasury yields fell sharply as traders took a more optimistic view of developments in the Gulf. US 2-year yields dropped 8.9 basis…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets oscillated between Middle East peace-talk optimism and renewed geopolitical tension after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, creating a volatile split between oil benchmarks (Brent up, WTI down). The standout macro data was April’s shockingly hot 1.4% PPI print, the largest monthly gain in four years, reinforcing inflation concerns despite new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s signal that rate cuts aren’t imminent.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Australia’s hotter-than-expected CPI reading (4.6% YoY), which strengthens the case for further RBA rate hikes and supports the Australian dollar, combined with China’s robust 15.5% year-to-date…

For a few days, the talk of the town is an imminent "deal" between the US and Iran. One that is labelled as a "deal to put an end to the conflict". While that sounds nice on paper, let's once again be reminded of what this actually means. A quick summary:

• This deal represents a framework agreement/memorandum of understanding (MOU)
• It will set out the terms and preconditions for the next 60 days as further negotiations continue
• The next step in talks will be trying to find a deal on nuclear discussions involving Iran's uranium disposal
• The US wants two things from this MOU
• First being an unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
• Second is that they want Iran to dismantle its nuclear programme as a precondition before lifting sanctions
• Iran…

Despite some escalation in military actions in the past day, markets are still holding out hope that we will see a US-Iran "deal" come forth this week.

The US military conducted what it said was "self defense" strikes against Iran, with Tehran lambasting that as to saying it was a violation to the April ceasefire agreement. If this were to happen a few weeks back, perhaps there would be a negative perception to the situation.

But since the weekend, all the focus is about how both sides are working towards sealing a framework agreement. This "deal" or memorandum of understanding what have you, has been "imminent" for a few days now. So, will today be the day?

Markets continue to hold out hope with a more positive showing yesterday. Tech…

• RBNZ Gov Breman says all policy setters agree on hikes, but not on timing
• BOJ signals loose conditions persist as Ueda lays groundwork for rate hike ahead
• Australia April CPI slows to 4.2% but core inflation creeps to highest since 2024
• NZD jumps - RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% by casting vote as committee splits 3-3 on rate hike
• RBNZ leaves its cash rate on hold at 2.25%, as widely expected
• China data, YTD (January - April) Industrial profits +18.2% y/y (prior +15.5%)
• Australian April CPI: Headline 4.2% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.6%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8291 (vs. estimate at 6.7883)
• Oil slips in Asia as Hormuz deal hopes offset renewed Iran hostilities
• UNCONFIRMED - Al Jazeera says a deal is done, signing to come
• Ueda opens BOJ…

Solid data from China.

I'll have more to come on this separately, details etc.