The USD is moving higher as yields continue to move higher. The 10 year yield is trading at the highest level since January 2025. The 2 year is at the highest level since February 2025. Crude oil prices are also an influence with the price moving above $91 for the first time since June 11.
- 2 year 4.332%, up 3 basis points
- 5 year 4.443%, up 3.6 basis points
- 10 year 4.693%, up 3.6 basis points
- 30 year 5.176%, up 2.9 basis points.
In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – to kickstart the North American session. What is the bias, the risk and the targets for each.
The ECB rate decision is at 8:15 AM with no change expected. At 8:30 AM, the weekly initial jobless claims will be released 212K vs 208K last week. The Canada Retail sales will also be released with estimate of 10%.
Overnight developments in the Middle East kept geopolitical tensions elevated, although there were tentative signs that back-channel diplomacy remains active. Iran’s Foreign Minister said there are sufficient mediators in place and that communication with the United States continues without difficulty, suggesting diplomatic channels remain open despite the ongoing conflict. At the same time, Iran reportedly launched a missile strike targeting the Al-Abdali border crossing between Iraq and Kuwait, while explosions were reported near the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also held talks aimed at strengthening cooperation, underscoring Baghdad’s efforts to balance relations as regional tensions intensify. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky warned that Russia is increasing attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, adding another layer of geopolitical risk for global trade and shipping.
US stocks are fully to the downside with the NASDAQ index
- NASDAQ index down -300 points
- S&P index -55 points
- Dow industrial average down -32 points.
There were a slew of earnings this morning. Below is summary of the beats and misses:
- American Airlines (AAL):BEAT – Adj. EPS $0.15 vs. $0.03 est.; Revenue $16.7B vs. $16.70B est. (in line)
- Blackstone (BX):BEAT – EPS $1.54 vs. $1.33 est.; Revenue $5.04B vs. $3.42B est.
- Infosys (INFY):MIXED – Net Profit ₹77.7B vs. ₹78.3B est. (Miss); Revenue ₹482.1B vs. ₹483.2B est. (Miss); trimmed FY27 revenue guidance.
- Eli Lilly (LLY):No earnings – Positive Phase 3 Retatrutide update.
- Lockheed Martin (LMT):BEAT – EPS $7.94 vs. $7.22 est.; Revenue $20.1B vs. $19.37B est.; raised guidance.
- T-Mobile (TMUS):MIXED – EPS $2.99 vs. $2.57 est. (Beat); Revenue $22.8B vs. $22.95B est. (Miss).
- Honeywell (HON): BEAT– Adj. EPS $1.95 vs. $1.81 est. (Beat); Revenue $9.7B vs. $9.50B est. (Beat); FY EPS guidance lowered, FY revenue guidance in line.
- Comcast (CMCSA):BEAT – Adj. EPS $1.04 vs. $0.97 est.; Revenue $29.9B vs. $29.24B est.
- PG&E (PCG):MIXED – Adj. EPS $0.40 vs. $0.36 est. (Beat); Revenue $5.9B vs. $6.20B est. (Miss).
- Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO):BEAT – Adj. EPS $6.03 vs. $5.72 est.; Revenue $12.0B vs. $11.7B est.
- Dow Inc. (DOW):BEAT – Adj. EPS $1.44 vs. $1.27 est.; Revenue $12.1B vs. $12.03B est.
- RTX Corp. (RTX):BEAT – Adj. EPS $1.89 vs. $1.66 est.; Sales $24.7B vs. $22.9B est.; raised FY EPS guidance.
After the close today, Intel will announce their earnings. Intel shares are up 178% this year.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.