Market News

Tokyo CPI, October (y/y)

• Headline: 2.8% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%)
• Core (ex fresh food): 2.6% vs. 2.6% expected (prior 2.7%)
• Ex fresh food and energy: 2.4% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%)

Labour market, September

• Unemployment rate: 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected (prior 2.5%)
• Jobs-to-applicants ratio: 1.19 vs. 1.18 expected (prior 1.18)

Just the data this post, I'll have more to come on this separately. 

Background:

• Tokyo CPI preview: core inflation seen at 2.6% as BoJ weighs December hike

Still to come:

• BoJ preview: hold at 1.25% expected, with 2% inflation call and dissent risk in focus

The call is unlikely to reverse the after-hours drop on its own, since the near-term numbers carry more weight than roadmap milestones when guidance is this weak. The bigger read-across is to the PC supply chain. Management’s account of aggressive OEM inventory cuts points to pressure on PC makers, memory suppliers and Asian component manufacturers in coming quarters. The substrate shortage is a supply-side constraint that may benefit packaging material suppliers. The server growth estimate, though a company projection, adds to the broader case for data centre spending that has supported chip stocks this year.

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Earlier:

• Earnings bloodbath: Intel crashes over 22%, Amazon over 12%. What's coming next?
• Intel shares tumble around 15%. The…

Front-end Australian yields look most exposed to next week’s decision, with roughly 5bp of hike pricing still to close if the RBA moves. A hold would likely hit the Australian dollar hard, given how much of its October strength rests on rate expectations. Oil is a key driver: further gains in crude would add to fuel-led inflation and reinforce the tightening bias, while a sustained pullback could ease pressure on the RBA. The Fed’s stance remains the main external constraint on AUD/USD.

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Earlier:

• RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February

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ING likes the Aussie’s yield and expects the RBA to add to it next week, but sees the Fed standing between AUD/USD and 0.72.

Summary:

• ING raised its short-term…

A back-to-back hike would extend the Australian dollar’s rate advantage and keep front-end yields elevated, while any hint that November is the last move could trigger a pullback in both. Fuel is the key transmission channel, so oil prices remain central to the outlook: further crude gains would deepen the pass-through into services and strengthen calls for more tightening. Australian equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors such as property and consumer discretionary, face added pressure if markets begin to price a longer hiking path.

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Earlier:

• ING lifts AUD/USD target to 0.71 as it backs a 25bp RBA hike next week

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Fuel is no longer just a petrol-station problem for Australia’s inflation, and Natixis expects the RBA to respond…

A December “last hike” view mainly affects the euro front end, with Euribor, €STR futures and one- to two-year government bond yields most exposed to shifts in pricing. Capping expectations could reduce volatility further out the curve, while short-dated contracts stay sensitive to each inflation print. Energy is the swing factor: further gains in oil and gas prices would strengthen the case for tightening and could support the euro. Leadership uncertainty adds a policy risk premium into 2027, which could weigh on the single currency if succession becomes politically contested.

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Earlier:

• investingLive Americas market news wrap: ECB holds, sources report says December hike

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Deutsche Bank thinks the ECB has one more hike in it, and that…

The report gives investors mixed signals, and the share reaction is likely to hinge on whether the margin beat outweighs the soft profit outlook. The cloud result supports the case that AI-related demand is still building, which matters for other hyperscalers and chipmakers reporting this season. A guidance midpoint below consensus heading into the holiday quarter could cap gains in Amazon shares and weigh on consumer discretionary sentiment more broadly. With Amazon a large weight in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, its move will feed into US index futures in the Asian session.

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• Amazon and Intel headline the earnings releases after today’s close

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Amazon squeezed more profit out of a slightly smaller-than-expected quarter, but a bottom-line…

A move of this size in a major index constituent is likely to weigh on Nasdaq futures early in the Asian session and spill into semiconductor sentiment, particularly names exposed to PC demand. The PC warning has read-across to Asian hardware suppliers, memory makers and contract manufacturers, which could see pressure in regional trade. The data centre and AI beat may limit the damage for AI-focused chip names, keeping the sell-off more targeted at the PC supply chain. The regular US session will show whether the after-hours move holds.

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ps. you'll never guess who's a big holder:

• US government builds $30bn stock portfolio across 43 deals in chips, minerals and quantum

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Intel won the quarter and lost the outlook, and after-hours traders…

Amazon and Intel stocks tumble after earnings. Strong AI growth wasn't enough

Amazon's cloud sales jumped 39% and Intel's data-center revenue rose 78%, yet both stocks sold off sharply. Investors are questioning the cost and sustainability of growth. Here are the important price levels to watch as Friday's trading approaches.

Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) shares fell sharply after their October 29 earnings releases, despite impressive growth in their cloud and data-center businesses. Amazon's heavy AI investment is consuming free cash flow, while Intel's weak outlook raises questions about its recovery. For traders, the next test is whether the initial after-hours selling attracts lasting buying interest.

As of 4:50 p.m. New York time on…

BNB took the heaviest hit among large caps, which shows traders pricing exchange-specific risk rather than a broad macro shock. Long positions took the damage, so the drop looks driven by forced selling more than by fresh shorts, and that can reverse quickly if the scare fades. The key swing factor is Binance’s silence. Confirmation of a breach would likely deepen pressure on BNB and on confidence in exchange custody. Proof that the funds are still under Binance’s control would remove the catalyst. Until one or the other happens, expect thin liquidity and headline-driven price swings.

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A $971 million Tether freeze turns a murky $2.77 billion Binance outflow into the market’s biggest worry, and Binance’s silence is keeping crypto on edge.

CZ’s comments take away part of the uncertainty but not the core risk. He has confirmed a likely hack, while the person who can commit Binance’s money to cover losses has said nothing yet. The stablecoin freezes shrink the possible loss, but the ether moved out of Binance has no such protection. BNB is the clearest gauge of how worried traders are, and it is likely to stay under pressure until Binance commits to covering losses. Bitcoin and ether are falling with the rest of the market rather than for a reason specific to them, so they could recover faster if Binance gives clear reassurance.

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Earlier:

• Tether freezes $971M USDT amid suspected Binance hack as crypto sells off

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CZ calls it a hack and says user funds are safe, Tether and…

A big Q3 beat on profit followed by a sharp cut to near-term guidance usually pushes a stock lower, and the scale of the Q4 shortfall makes that the more likely reaction for Intel. The PC warning has read-across to the broader PC supply chain, including memory makers and Asian hardware suppliers, which may feel pressure in regional trade. The data centre beat, by contrast, adds to evidence that AI-related server demand is holding up, a positive for the wider semiconductor complex.

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• Amazon Q3 operating profit beats estimates, but EPS misses and Q4 guidance looks soft. Share price drops.

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Intel delivered a margin-led beat for the quarter just gone, then guided the next one well below the Street and warned PC demand will keep shrinking…

• Iran's Ghalibaf: Progress can only be achieved once the seven conditions have been agreed upon
• Trump: Iran war will be over very soon. Senator warns of 'insane' US plans
• ECB sources report: Policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause
• Lagarde: Growth should be underpinned in the near term
• ECB rate decision: No change in rates
• US initial jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected
• US September PCE core inflation +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• US GDP Advance for the 3rd quarter 3.4% vs 3.2% estimate

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down 46-0cetns to $102.32
• US 10-year yields down 6.3 bps to 4.98%
• GBP leads, AUD lags
• Gold down $44 to $4022
• S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 1.4%

The ECB decision to hold rates wasn't a surprise but the commentary overall had a…