Market News

If you think having the Strait of Hormuz closed is bad enough, it looks like things may yet get worse with shipping disruptions now starting to hit the Red Sea. For some context:

• Iran reportedly tells Houthis to close Red Sea oil route if US decides to strike power infrastructure
• Houthi blockade threat forces Saudi crude tankers to turn back

According to shiptracking data cited by Reuters, four tankers have changed navigational course in the Red Sea today. Of note, two of the four tankers have now listed the Suez Canal as their next desination in trying to transit through the area. Here's a better look at things with the red zones being the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandab strait:

The most impacted by the disruption of transit through…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The Nasdaq has been mostly rangebound this month as the US-Iran crisis brought back inflation and growth risks. This has also happened amid overcrowded tech positioning which has led to deleveraging across the board.

Last week’s soft US inflation data helped limiting the downside as the peak inflation narrative got stronger and we got a dovish repricing in Fed interest rates expectations, which reduced the Fed tightening risk. Nonetheless, the situation in the Middle East is weighing on sentiment as there are good chances of things getting worse before they get better.

The focus will stay on US-Iran headlines, especially this week with nothing on the…

• Iran is in a lot of trouble
• Nothing China has done has changed the trajectory of the conflict with Iran
• In fact, in some cases China has been cooperative on Iran situation
• Would love to reach a diplomatic settlement with Iran

As for other related remarks:

• Talked a lot with Wang about Xi's planned trip to the US
• Both sides have differences but the job is to manage that
• There are areas of potential cooperation
• Disagrees with China's activities on Taiwan
• But important to talk to China irrespective of all the differences
• Discussed trade among other things

For some context, Rubio mentioned this about Iran just before the meeting:

"The problem we're ​having right now is that they're not serious about talks. If they're serious, we're serious. If they're…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold staged a rebound yesterday without any fundamental reason. The catalyst might have been a squeeze triggered by the breakout of a key trendline that’s been capping the upside for several weeks.

As I mentioned previously, the risk/reward did flip to the upside after the soft US inflation data and the dovish repricing, but traders will likely need a de-escalation on the US-Iran front for a more sustained trend.

The US-Iran headlines continue to drive the price action, especially this week with pretty much nothing on the agenda. De-escalatory news should support gold and trigger rallies, while further escalations will continue to weigh on the…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 22 July 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets were driven by a combination of Japanese trade data, continued weakness in the Japanese yen, and ongoing geopolitical concerns surrounding the Middle East. Japan’s June trade report showed exports rising strongly by around 19% year-over-year, supported by semiconductor demand and robust shipments to the U.S. and China. However, imports surged even faster, largely because of elevated crude oil prices, resulting in a return to a trade deficit. At the same time, the yen weakened to fresh multi-decade lows above ¥163 per U.S. dollar, increasing speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange market.

What does it mean for…